Canadian provincial leadership elections 2015

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So, who you all rooting for?

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I don't really care wins. Most likely who ever wins will resign as party leader once the party is destroyed next April. I expect Oswald to lose her seat, Selinger might keep his seat, and Ashton will probably keep his seat.

Even in the 1988 election when the party fell to third and won just 23% of the vote, they won 12 of the 57 ridings.

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Probably bad news for Sellinger:

WINNIPEG, Canado - Manitoba unions will hold a lot less sway than expected over Premier Greg Selinger's future, after being unable to fill hundreds of delegate slots for the governing NDP's leadership vote next weekend, sources have told The Canadian Press.
Unions were allocated up to 691 of a potential 2,217 delegate positions for the March 8 vote that will determine whether Selinger will be forced out of his job by an internal revolt. But two sources connected to the race said unions were only able to fill 361 of those slots by the deadline Wednesday night, with a handful of potential additions still being tabulated by party headquarters.

http://www.brandonsun.com/national/breaking-news/unions-to-hold-less-sway-in-manitoba-ndp-leadership-race-sources-294322751.html?thx=y

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Will CBC Radio or some other station or even tv be broadcasting live from the convention floor in Manitoba?

[136or142]

Will CBC Radio or some other station or even tv be broadcasting live from the convention floor in Manitoba?

It looks like there their will be a Live Stream of the convention on the  NDP Manitoba website.

I not sure if CJOB might will be covering the convention.  They could break in once the ballots are announced.

First ballot results is schedule at noon, second ballot results at 1:45 pm (Central Time)

SUNDAY, MARCH 8

REGISTRATION OPENS 7:00 AM // REGISTRATION CLOSES 9:15 AM

9:00 AM Call to Order
9:15 AM Candidates for Leader   
10:30 AM Credentials Committee Report
10:30 AM First Ballot
12:00 PM Announcement of First Ballot
12:30 PM Second Ballot 
1:45 PM Announcement of Second Ballot
1:50 PM Remarks by Leader
2:00 PM Adjournment



http://todaysndp.ca/Convention2015

Thanks Trebor204!

[136or142]

Earle McCurdy wins the NDP N&L leadership, replacing Lorraine Michael. He won on the first ballot with two thirds of the vote. Hopefully he is popular enough to save the party there.

Major scandal brewing in Newfoundland and Labrador NDP leadership race.  Apparently a whole bunch of fish voted for McCurdy.  Said one prominent New Democrat "I would have thought that fish would hate Earle McCurdy."



Seriously though:
McCurdy received 889 votes. The runner-up, Mike Goosney, received 299, and Chris Bruce came third with 110.
http://www.thenorwester.ca/News/Local/2015-03-07/article-4068825/Earle-McCurdy-new-NDP-leader/1

Apparently Earle McCurdy's speech at the convention was an old time barnburner.  Looks like the party has found a winner.

One member one vote.  What a concept. The Manitoba NDP might want to try it.

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The political junkie in me prefers the old delegate system because they make for better conventions.

The political parties have found a way to address that by having voting 'delegates' at the convention.

CJOB online poll
Who do you think will win the NDP leadership race?
Greg Selinger 34%
Steve Ashton 33%
Theresa Oswald 33%

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CBC live feed
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/manitoba-ndp-could-choose-new-premier-at-convention-1.2985490

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First ballot
Greg Selinger 612
Theresa Oswald 575
Steve Ashton 502

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They've decided not to release the results until next years Oscar telecast.

Said one prominent new Democrat "we want to keep people in suspense"

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1.The Manitoba NDP managed to win 12 seats with just 23% of the vote in 1988.

2.Gary Doer won an almost equally narrow victory for the NDP leadership in 1988 although that was more of an urban/rural split.

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Well, personally, I wouldn't be member of NDP in Manitoba. Can't be a member of a party with "union vote" or representation of anything else than members.

So you wouldn't be a member of the NDP in Alberta? They had a one member, one vote convention, but union members were weighted up. I don't know if any other provincial parties are still doing this though.

The Manitoba NDP is definitely the most pro-establishment provincial NDP. I guess that's what happens when you've been in power for so long.

My understanding is that the NDP in Manitoba went to a one member one vote some time after Gary Doer was elected leader in 1988 but that they went back to a delegated convention some time before he left in 2009.

[136or142]

1.The Manitoba NDP managed to win 12 seats with just 23% of the vote in 1988.

2.Gary Doer won an almost equally narrow victory for the NDP leadership in 1988 although that was more of an urban/rural split.

Thee is no comparison, Doer was running to become leader for the first time after Pawley quit...Selinger is the sitting premier who is HATED by 99% of the province who who was the choice of only 34% of his own party on the first ballot. He is literally Dead Man Walking

Prior to the 'gang of five' the Manitoba NDP had managed to get back to 30-32% of the vote and was only 10-15% behind the P.Cs (and more importantly tied in Winnipeg).  I doubt the NDP can win the next election, but I would hesitate to count out Selinger entirely.

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The NDP is in first place in Toronto? Do Torontonians feel bad for nearly wiping out the party there?

They should! I lost my damned MPP, who is amazing btw, to a yes-man back-bencher... yes, I am still smarting
But it goes to show that the NDP is not yet as dead in the city as many in the media and Liberals would have us believe. The NDP has been pushing more of its traditional policies since the election though such as being firm again Privatization, linking the OLP to the TO school boards funding issues and school closures and pushing anti-fracking.

How about eliminating the Catholic School Board?

[136or142]

The NDP is in first place in Toronto? Do Torontonians feel bad for nearly wiping out the party there?

They should! I lost my damned MPP, who is amazing btw, to a yes-man back-bencher... yes, I am still smarting
But it goes to show that the NDP is not yet as dead in the city as many in the media and Liberals would have us believe. The NDP has been pushing more of its traditional policies since the election though such as being firm again Privatization, linking the OLP to the TO school boards funding issues and school closures and pushing anti-fracking.

How about eliminating the Catholic School Board?

I wish they would, but sadly I think the party has not taken that position... I believe they had a "study" into it which showed not much in terms of savings but I have a hard time believing that. I think you would find the idea of a single school board popular among the membership more then it is being expressed

I'm pretty sure the Constitution doesn't allow it.

Newfoundland and Labrador had a provincial referendum that voted in favor of eliminating them.

[136or142]

The NDP is in first place in Toronto? Do Torontonians feel bad for nearly wiping out the party there?

They should! I lost my damned MPP, who is amazing btw, to a yes-man back-bencher... yes, I am still smarting
But it goes to show that the NDP is not yet as dead in the city as many in the media and Liberals would have us believe. The NDP has been pushing more of its traditional policies since the election though such as being firm again Privatization, linking the OLP to the TO school boards funding issues and school closures and pushing anti-fracking.

How about eliminating the Catholic School Board?

I wish they would, but sadly I think the party has not taken that position... I believe they had a "study" into it which showed not much in terms of savings but I have a hard time believing that. I think you would find the idea of a single school board popular among the membership more then it is being expressed

I'm pretty sure the Constitution doesn't allow it.

Newfoundland and Labrador had a provincial referendum that voted in favor of eliminating them.

Quebec had that reform too, both in both cases, everyone was in agreement with the reform, due to their specific situations. I don't think Catholics would agree in Ontario.

The Catholic Church opposed the referendum in NFLD.

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Although in Brown's case, head to head polling with the Liberals actually shows him performing as much as 6 points worse than Elliott. One even shows Brown doing worse than Hudak (30%) although the Liberals have likely become less popular since that poll. All while the average Ontarian knows next to nothing about Elliott or Brown.

The next question is: who will resign their seat? Barrie is still held by the Liberals. Hoping the by-election will be as exciting as the Sudbury one was.

At one time, Tim Hudack said he would resign his seat once a new leader was chosen.

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That's crazy that an election result in another province across the country would cause such a swing in Ontario. Canadian politics are really bizarre sometimes.

It's all the more unusual given that by the time of the Federal Election, if you were to ask people outside of Alberta which party held the provincial government there, I'd bet that most people would either say "no idea", "Conservative" or at best "I forget, but I believe the party that had been in power there for a long time was finally defeated."

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That's crazy that an election result in another province across the country would cause such a swing in Ontario. Canadian politics are really bizarre sometimes.

It's the bandwagon effect. FPTP punishes vote-splitting, so when one progressive party appears to rise, strategic progressive voters rush to that party.

I doubt that. Strategic voting has only very rarely ever occurred on a wide scale, and its succeeded even less. The Alberta Liberal Party decline started long before the election campaign.

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PQ will announce Round 1 results tomorrow.

Round 1 announcement: PQ TKOs itself