Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[Skill and Chance]

Holy crap.  If there's a controversy this fall, they're going to 5/4 let the state legislatures assign electors to their preferred candidate (results in an automatic Trump reelection if governors can't veto),  aren't they? 

EDIT: To be clear, I don't like the last minute rule change and would favor moving the whole thing to a different, safer time but holding it under the same rules as before.

I wouldn't rule out some states trying this. Based on how the economy is going, Republicans could get wiped out if we hold fair elections. With redistricting coming up, the stakes have never been higher for them in recent memory.

If you think about it, this catastrophe really gives Republicans some opportunities to play dirty. They can first try and use the pandemic to shut down polling places in Democratic-leaning areas, and if that causes issues with the courts, they can then say the election results are not reliable and use their power to assign the electoral votes themselves. Not hard to see this happening in many of the states expected to be competitive (or on the edge of competitiveness) this cycle - GA, NC, AZ, FL, WI, etc.

I deleted this because after I read portions of the opinion, I no longer agree with it.  They were dealing narrowly with the change the rules at the last minute issue and came down against it.  If anything, that would make them less amenable to allowing legislatures to just assign EV after planning to hold a statewide popular vote.

[Skill and Chance]

Maybe this wasn't quite as much of a clown show as originally assumed?

[Skill and Chance]

So if Karofsky's lead holds, the court would be 4 Right/3 Left, with one of the right wing seats up in 2023, right after the court would be asked to weigh in on any matters related to redistricting.  The chance of any serious shenanigans just went down significantly.

[Skill and Chance]

Great wins in the judicial races. So now a 4-3 conservative majority on the Supreme Court. Is that a hard conservative 4 justice majority? Or is there a more moderate conservative who's willing to break ranks on big, partisan, cases?

One GOP justice is slightly more moderate.

Yes and Kelly was very conservative so while this race doesn't flip control it will impact some cases. For example, I saw a tweet in this thread, saying those opposing the WI voter purge now have a majority.

Interesting.  Are any of the 3 liberals known to be more moderate and open to dealmaking with the most moderate conservative?  If so, perhaps there could be a lot of 3/2/2 coalitions that would deescalate partisanship on the court?  I think the federal analog to this would be Trump getting to but Amy Barrett in RBG's seat but then Biden or 2024 Dem getting to put a liberal judge in Thomas or Alito's seat the following year?

[Skill and Chance]

I think it's Hagedorn, the one who barely beat Neubauer last year.

Yes Hagedorn sided with the two liberals on the voter purge suit. Karofsky's win likely means it will be rejected.

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2020/03/11/voter-purge-conservatives-ask-court-fast-track-wisconsin-case/5021246002/

Wait really? I thought he was a hardcore republican?

Hagedorn sided with the liberals in this case, but most of the time the swing vote is Roggensack.

Roggensack is the next justice facing reelection, in 2023.  If she is now the swing vote, that will be an extra incentive for her uphold the 1960's precedent that the legislature can't go around Evers on redistricting and create backdoor NC rules as some conservatives wanted to try, or to refrain from approving overtly partisan maps in a tiebreaker function between the legislature and the governor.

[Skill and Chance]

Supreme Court 2019 --> 2020 Swing/Trend

2 Point Increments, non-Atlas colors

Swing



Trend



Next on my agenda, turnout comparisons.

So almost a pure suburban (D)/rural (R) split as elsewhere, but with resorty and ancestrally unionized areas getting more R?  The R floor in the Madison area must be pretty hard. 

[Skill and Chance]

Supreme Court 2019 --> 2020 Swing/Trend
[maps]

why did Bayfield County swing R?

Giant concentration of Obama/Trump voters there (even though the county still narrowly went for Clinton).

[Skill and Chance]

^^ That is one way for states to mitigate turnout/safety issues without relying on changes to the law from Congress or the state legislature. It might even encourage Republicans to make the process easier because if all the major cities do it, they won't want to be left out. On the other hand, they could just as easily seek to prevent cities from doing this.

In some states, it might not be a viable option if the absentee request rules are too onerous. For instance, I'm not sure if Texas has any plans to make fear of getting COVID-19 a valid excuse in requesting an absentee ballot. For TX, these are the only excuses listed:

https://www.sos.texas.gov/elections/voter/reqabbm.shtml

To be eligible to vote early by mail in Texas, you must:

    be 65 years or older;
    be disabled;
    be out of the county on election day and during the period for early voting by personal appearance; or
    be confined in jail, but otherwise eligible.

The bare minimum compromise in Congress should be to at least force states to allow people to request absentee ballots if they fear getting sick. Most states already allow this, so it's really just for the holdouts .

https://www.austinmonitor.com/stories/2020/04/texas-officials-try-to-clarify-who-can-vote-by-mail-but-they-might-not-be-able-to-just-say-everyone/

In their advisory, state officials said, "the Election Code defines ‘disability’ to include ‘a sickness or physical condition that prevents the voter from appearing at the polling place on election day without a likelihood of needing personal assistance or of injuring the voter’s health.’ (Sec. 82.002).”

Officials said any voter who meets that definition must be able to apply for ballot by mail.

AG Paxton disagrees and might arrest/charge anyone that says otherwise.

https://twitter.com/srl/status/1250508771190849536?s=20

I smell a lawsuit coming.

Deleted the post that quoted that article.  Please follow all rules outlined in any official guidance and subsequent court decisions in your state. 

EDIT: Please delete the post that quotes my deleted post quoting that article.  It is no longer up to date.

[Skill and Chance]

It looks like the state supreme court is going to throw out Governor Evers' current coronavirus public health orders, either 5/2 or 4/3.  Hagedorn seemed undecided, maybe mildly supporting the governor/public health office.  The other 4 conservatives all seemed adamantly opposed.  One even compared it to Korematsu.

[Skill and Chance]

It looks like the state supreme court is going to throw out Governor Evers' current coronavirus public health orders, either 5/2 or 4/3.  Hagedorn seemed undecided, maybe mildly supporting the governor/public health office.  The other 4 conservatives all seemed adamantly opposed.  One even compared it to Korematsu.

Aren't there now three Democrats since we just picked up a WI SC seat?  If Hagedorn also ends up supporting it then that would be 4-3 in favor of the public health orders, no?

Term starts July 1st.

Yeah, lame duck period unfortunately. No reason there couldn't be instant replacement.

On a separate note, I believe Hagedorn was considered particularly out there conservative when he won?  He's turning out to be the most moderate of the conservative block on several issues.

[Skill and Chance]

It looks like the state supreme court is going to throw out Governor Evers' current coronavirus public health orders, either 5/2 or 4/3.  Hagedorn seemed undecided, maybe mildly supporting the governor/public health office.  The other 4 conservatives all seemed adamantly opposed.  One even compared it to Korematsu.

Aren't there now three Democrats since we just picked up a WI SC seat?  If Hagedorn also ends up supporting it then that would be 4-3 in favor of the public health orders, no?

Term starts July 1st.

Yeah, lame duck period unfortunately. No reason there couldn't be instant replacement.

On a separate note, I believe Hagedorn was considered particularly out there conservative when he won?  He's turning out to be the most moderate of the conservative block on several issues.

His personal views are atrocious, but yes, it's turned out to be quite a surprise.

It's fascinating. Judicial elections are different of course, but it reminds me of the several large state Republican governors who ran as Trumpy firebreathers and then mostly governed as moderates. 

[Skill and Chance]

And it gets struck down 4/3, with Hagedorn writing the dissent.

[Skill and Chance]

Wisconsin GOP’s hopes of a supermajority in the state legislature are fading due to Trump trailing in the state.  This is particularly true in the Assembly, where the battlegrounds are mainly in the Milwaukee suburbs.  Democrats could still take a net loss in the Senate, which features more rural battlegrounds further north.

https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/republican-dreams-of-a-supermajority-in-the-wisconsin-legislature-fade-with-trump/article_a5b11afd-31f4-5ec7-b864-05b25f46f165.html?utm_campaign=snd-autopilot&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook_&fbclid=IwAR2XAnFMExbE5qS0SF3Tx7psjMiaePPk-94XsHHmUFoGrR1CDPjyyR3QQS8

Does the governor have an say in redistricting

Yes, Evers can veto maps by the Legislature.

is there going to be a more fair map assuming the GOP doesn't get super majorities

Depends how the WI SC rules.  There is one conservative Justice who is more from the ideological-wing than the “cling to/gain more power at all costs” wing of the WI Republican Party IIRC.  OTOH, the WI SC has a 3-4 Republican majority and the aforementioned Justice has a mixed record when it comes to his willingness to break with the other three Republican Justices, so who knows.  

There will be a bid to have the WISC reinterpret the state constitution to create no veto NC rules for redistricting.  It almost surely would have succeeded before Karofsky beat Kelly, but now it will probably fail. Hagedorn has been consistently voting against conservative attempts to change election rules.

[Skill and Chance]

This is one of those elections that could proceed the end of WOW as a cohesive political unit. Washington County really appears to be going in a different direction from Ozaukee and Waukesha.

Washington is now way Trumpier than the other 2 and Ozaukee could plausibly be voting Dem soon.

[Skill and Chance]

How is Michels an especially bad candidate? He generally seems like Generic R in every way to me.

Yeah,  I don't get this.  If anything the outsider image should help. My understanding is that both candidates have randomly made a couple extremely socially conservative comments, but I think Michels comes off as more moderate overall? 

[Skill and Chance]

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2022/11/17/waukesha-parade-judge-jennifer-dorow-considers-state-supreme-court-run/69657568007/

She seems like the strongest conservative option.

Democrats should run Bruce Schroder from Ken OSHA.

Having a liberal candidate from outside of Dane/Milwaukee is probably a good thing.

[Skill and Chance]

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2022/11/17/waukesha-parade-judge-jennifer-dorow-considers-state-supreme-court-run/69657568007/

She seems like the strongest conservative option.

Democrats should run Bruce Schroder from Ken OSHA.

Having a liberal candidate from outside of Dane/Milwaukee is probably a good thing.

Do you think the judge who presided over the Kyle Rittenhouse trial qualifies as liberal?

No.

I had know idea that was the person who was being referred to in the earlier comment.

I do think a liberal from the rural western part of the state would be the best option to maximize odds of winning.

[Skill and Chance]

I’m also keeping an eye on the weather…it looks like next Tuesday could bring a real mess to parts of Wisconsin above highway 8 or 70…right now it’s looking like snow/freezing rain will be north of 70 and rain/freezing rain between 70 and 8. Obviously with spring weather this could change, but that could mess with turnout up north.

So not too different weather from the spring primary were there was snow up north.

I doubt snow in northern Wisconsin is going to prevent anyone from voting LOL.

In general, speculation about weather impacts always tends to be overblown, and doubly so in the North.  The most plausible scenario to actually alter statewide election outcomes would be an early season winter storm that unexpectedly drops over a foot of snow in the mountains of GA/NC/VA/PA the night before the election while there is basically just drizzle in the major cities (and/or most of the Dems have already voted).  That's a reasonably common east cost winter storm track, but early November would be almost out of season for it.   

[Skill and Chance]

Also skies have been clear all morning so far across the vast majority of the state. (Edit: It's cloudy, but no rain or storms) First real instance of crappy weather really doesn't appear to take hold until about 11:00 AM (4 hours after polls opened) and that will only be in the Southwestern corner of the state.  

Yes, the weather stuff is getting very annoying.  Get back to me when there's a GA runoff day Appalachian blizzard.  Anything short of that shouldn't matter.

[Skill and Chance]

Is it expected that Dan Kelly will start out ahead until the Milwaukee absentees are added later in the night?

I think only if it's super close.  This isn't 2020 anymore.  Most people are voting today.

[Skill and Chance]

Woah.

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1643420556543557633?s=20

Depends on where those are. The city of Waukesha has always been blue. It’s the county that has been OSR level crazy.

Is one of the precincts the local college or something?

[Skill and Chance]

Waukesha 60/40 for Kelly now, Dane 79/21 for P, LaCrosse 56/44 P, Dodge 70/30 K, Jefferson 52/48 K, Ozaukee 55/45 P (!)

[Skill and Chance]

This is gonna be tight

Not sure about this.  P is even with or ahead of Evers almost everywhere with significant votes in right now.  Unless it's an early vote skew or something, she would be favored.

[Skill and Chance]

Now she's only ahead by about 1% with 73% in.

It's 1.8%, could be worse.

Do we have any sense of what's out?  This is the decisive seat for Dems to block removals of any officials R's impeach.

[Skill and Chance]

That’s all, folks!

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1643428168710201345?s=20

Scott Walker Legacy now  will be erased . Stupid stupid Trumpists for not voting for the other Republican who could have had a better chance of winning this race and preserving this great legacy

When is the next election conservatives have a chance to retake it?

2025

Well, that's rough.

Good luck to the current Rust Belt state GOP coalition in an odd year spring election!