PA-08 2008 matchup

[Keystone Phil]

Fitz/close but probably Fitz

[Keystone Phil]

Murphy by a comfortable margin

When the Iraq issue fades, Murphy has nothing. This is his time in the spotlight. It won't last until 2008.

[Keystone Phil]

The are also plenty of other issues that strongly favor Murphy in this district.

They were happy with Fitz on those issues. Believe me, if it wasn't for Murphy being an Iraq war vet, the race wouldn't have been that close.

[Keystone Phil]

Fitzpatrick/Murphy

I know you said you didn't mind Fitz but you'd actually vote for him? Wow.

[Keystone Phil]

Fitzpatrick/Murphy

So you'd vote for a guy who casts a few token environmental votes (like Gerlach basically) and who votes for John Boehner as Speaker over a guy who'd be just as good on those issues, and many more who votes for Nancy Pelosi and Speaker?

Token environmental support? Fitz has been a champion for open space and was endorsed by the Sierra Club.

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I never said that it will all be perfectly fine. I said I don't think it will be as big of an issue. You shouldn't expect it to get as much attention and bring more support your way when we are two years away.

The are also plenty of other issues that strongly favor Murphy in this district.

They were happy with Fitz on those issues. Believe me, if it wasn't for Murphy being an Iraq war vet, the race wouldn't have been that close.

I think he still woudl have lost.  This is a district that just has trended more and more Democratic and the voters are beginning to vote that way at the Congressional level.  This same type of thing happened to Democrats who tried to reclaim their seats in the South after 1994.

I don't think Fitz would have still lost. Murphy had appeal because he was a vet. He wouldn't have received the money or manpower if he didn't have that appeal. Plus, he only won by a few hundred votes. I think Fitz could have won those people over if he wasn't running against this young guy who served in Iraq.

Murphy by a comfortable margin

When the Iraq issue fades, Murphy has nothing. This is his time in the spotlight. It won't last until 2008.

The Iraq issue will not fade.  The war will not be over by 2008, I can tell you that.  The are also plenty of other issues that strongly favor Murphy in this district.

I'm interested to know how you know so much about my congressional district.

Mr. Phips seems to be interested in many House races especially those in PA.

[Keystone Phil]

This is a district that liberal John frickin' Kerry won.[/qupte]

Pennsylvanians are pretty consistent with their partisanship on the Presidential level.

  

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Yes, but he also lost twice.

[Keystone Phil]

Well, if PA-08 is not inherently a Democratic district(it gave Kerry three points more than is national average) then districts that Dems picked up like CA-11, AZ-05, FL-16, NY-19, and NY-20 are not inherently Republican districts because they all gave Bush three more points than his national average as PA-09 gave Kerry three more points than his national average.

That might be true. It depends on the nature of the district. I know PA 8 isn't ingerently a Dem district because while Kerry and other Dems have won there, the GOP still has a good lead in registration.

[Keystone Phil]

It was actually about 1700 votes.  I think any decent Democrat(not Schrader) would have beat Fitzpatrick in that district.  The district has changed.

No, it actually wasn't. I have spoken to people that know. After provisionals and absentees were counted, it was about 900 votes.

The district has changed? Check the registrations.

I think the point there is more that incumbents in districts that vote for their party's nominees don't lose unless they're in too long and basically become wastes of space like Phil Crane or Sam Gejedson. That's the exact opposite of Murphy.

As far as Fitzpatrick goes, how could he be supposedly insanely popular? He was a one-termer. Sure he won big originally in 2004 but he had a joke opponent.

Insanely popular? No.

Popular...or at the very least, (or what one would think as...)sufficently popular? yes.

But how did he get that being only a first termer?

See, this is where it helps to know about the area like we do. Fitz was the most popular Bucks county commissioner (top vote getter) in the history of the county. People know and like Fitz.

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Wow, that's quite some obsession you have there, BRTD.

[Keystone Phil]

Do they think PA08 is some rural district?

PA 8 does have a good amount of farming areas.

[Keystone Phil]

Well, if PA-08 is not inherently a Democratic district(it gave Kerry three points more than is national average) then districts that Dems picked up like CA-11, AZ-05, FL-16, NY-19, and NY-20 are not inherently Republican districts because they all gave Bush three more points than his national average as PA-09 gave Kerry three more points than his national average.

That might be true. It depends on the nature of the district. I know PA 8 isn't ingerently a Dem district because while Kerry and other Dems have won there, the GOP still has a good lead in registration.

A lot of these people that are still registered as Republicans here are liberal Lincoln Chafee style Republicans, just like most of the Democrats registered in Oklahoma and Kentucky are very Conservative Democrats.

That's great. A lot of those RINOs stick with the GOP when it comes to state and local races. PA 8 is certainly not inherently Dem.

For what? During the election I liked to see how things were going around the country so I watched a lot of political ads outside my state on YouTube. So what? No different from poll watching.

My apologies. I thought it was that other ad.

Unless you're in extreme lower bucks...there are significant farming areas in Bucks county, especially the further north one goes. The sprawl pattern seems to be a bit different than in Montgomery or Delaware counties (Open space laws seem to be partly [can't say how much] responsible).

Yeah, PA 8 has everything - suburbs, rural and urban areas.

Oh yeah, these are the median household incomes in the two key cities in PA-15:

Bethlehem: $35,815
Allentown: $32,016

Neither one looks very affluent or professional. Allentown is even poorer than Mankato.

That's looking at only two cities, BRTD. Allentown isn't the area expanding. Do me a favor and do your homework for the surrounding, expanding communities instead of closing yourself off to whatever you don't want to hear.

Phil, are the PA-08 Republicans more liberal than PA-06 GOPers? I've gotten a sense from my reading on the districts that PA-06 Republican voters are less wiling to vote for a Democrat than their counterparts in the 8th.

PA 6 is home to the Main Line - a base for socially liberal Republicans. There are, however, rural and suburban areas of the 6th that stick with conservative roots which is similar to PA 8. It's hard to say which is home to more liberal Republicans.

Would it be fair to say Murphy wouldn't have won without the 7th's sliver of Mont. Co? If so, could Lois Murphy have won if that parcel of land had been in the 6th?

I'm not familiar with the area.

[Keystone Phil]

County vote totals:

Bucks
Fitzpatrick 116,838
Murphy 115,802

Montgomery
Murphy 3,967
Fitzpatrick 2,403

Philadelphia
Murphy 5,898
Fitzpatrick 4,905

Point?

You can go right ahead and dispute what I said about Murphy winning by only 900 votes but I'm telling you that I heard it from a very, very credibly source after the provisionals, absentees, etc. were counted.