Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/jeneps/status/1468620348941811712?t=-Yn7k3r_Th4G6TuiqGHXfA&a...

"The idea that the United States is going to unilaterally use force to confront Russia invading Ukraine is not in the cards right now"

This is answering a question no one is asking. Unilateral means we're going it alone. Well, the event of us using force would (I hope) be at Ukrainian invitation to help them defend their country, which means it would automatically not be unilateral.

"Adds that U.S. involvement in Ukraine will depend on what other NATO countries are doing."

Based on historical practice, they'll all sit around the table and wait to find out what we're doing.

My educated guess is Biden is doing nothing that the other main countries in NATO won't do. He's looking for others to share responsibility in the decision and burden.

Which is what he should do. The values that America represents will outlive America and there will always be adversaries to those ideas. It's best that we have a way to preserve continuity so we don't live in a world totally devoid of our values or where America is the sole defender of them.

[Person Man]

why do putin gotta be such a little bitch

He needs to be on a slow feeder or else he gets bloated. Bitches eat with their noses.

[Person Man]

It’s 1 AM now.

[Person Man]

🍿

This isn't some kind of game.

Doesn’t mean we can’t find it entertaining/exciting. I know I will.

We could be on the brink of something that will change this world forever. Isn’t that something to get your adrenaline running?

Well, sure, but if I want my adrenaline running I can just do some exercise or watch an action movie. I don't particularly want the threat of mass death to enter into it.

Full disclaimer: I’m not going to say I’m not being naive here- maybe I am, and maybe I’m letting my adventurous spirit getting in the way of my rational and ethical mind.

I typically view times of strife and challenge as times for opportunity and the furthering of myself and humanity.

But Of course, that’s ignoring just his severe that strife/challenge can be in terms of consequence, which often end up destroying opportunities and holding back myself and humanity.

You make your signature look unironic but yeah. There is a part of all of us that wants to see the problem consummated. Some folks really want to watch the world burn but others just don’t like to watch these things fester.

[Person Man]

So, ground troops didn't actually invade.
Very minor egg on face for the US intelligence apparatus?

Why would anyone take any intelligence agencies at face value...

I mean, it could kind of be true. Richard Branson created his first working prototype for a spaceplane in 2004. He said he would start shooting millionaires into space five years later. It took until 2021 to actually send the first people. Most projects are like this where it takes about a month to do a week's worth of work.

[Person Man]

I hate to say it, but if this is true, I’m kind of hoping it’s something so heinous that completely forces the West’s hand on direct intervention.

[Person Man]

I have a feeling one of Putin's main objectives is to use this as bargaining chip to legitimize Crimea annexion and essentially get Donbass regions recognized as independent or part of Russia?

I agree that these are going to be things Putin will want to get out of this.  A Russia-Ukraine compromise to me would be something like

a) Russia continue to use Ukraine transit state for gas which would continue much needed Ukraine government revenue
b) Ukraine carries out Minsk II which gives autonomy to the Donetsk republics
c) water rights for Crimeria - Ukraine has cut off water to Crimea since 2014 and Russia has to move in the water there at great expense
d) Ukraine formally giving up joining NATO

I suspect it is d) that is the main sticking point now.

Your list does not seem to include Russia giving up anything other than not invading for the moment. I don't think that dog will hunt or should hunt. It has eerie echoes of the forced relinquishment of the Sudetenland.

In one sense Russia has already lost, because unless the West is into the suicide mode, it cannot allow itself to be economically entangled with Russia to the point that it can be coerced to bend over. It's time for something akin to an economic divorce at least up to the point that when Russia is a bad boy, it can be cut off without undue economic pain.

It is also a warning shot about China, which will soon be a co super power with the US. That is a very sobering thought since it has the economic power, or soon will, to do just about anything it wants. 1951 was a good year to be born as an American. It really was. Good luck to you all.

a) Russia continue to use Ukraine transit state for gas which would continue much needed Ukraine government revenue

is actually a big concession since once Nord Stream II goes live then Ukraine will lose almost all gas transit revenue which makes up 18% of Ukraine government revenue.

I think rolling back NATO is a medium-term crisis meaning if Russia does not see progress on this in the next couple of years I can see Russia getting very aggressive.

The current crisis in my mind is about Nord Stream II and Western intra-alliance discipline.  Germany needs Nord Stream II or else its industrial economy will become uncompetitive.  The USA does not want Germany to further its economic links to Germany ergo a crisis has to be created to force Germany to give up Nord Stream II. When Germany does not budge the crisis has to be made bigger to increase the pressure on Germany.   Clearly, the USA can sanction Nord Stream II but that will turn the German people against the USA.  So Nord Stream II has to be shut down but the blame pinned on the Russians.

It would be great if that is what is happening.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1494406719836930054

The Ukraine could join NATO only after Putin dies. Putin wants to bring back the Soviet Union and make Russia a super power again. Maybe the next Russian generation will be more liberal.

How? I mean, that’s like asking if I could get a toilet of solid gold.

[Person Man]

My sources tell me of widespread evacuations in the villages near the front lines.

On the Russian side because they are worried about the inevitable attack by the evil and all powerful Ukrainians?

Yes apparently

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1494723211417767942?s=20&t=wnx3I7E62i6CpARy04...

It is.

[Person Man]

Bigserg should be unmuted imo

Oh f**k no

Unless sympathizing with an enemy power is legitimate political discourse. How were people sympathetic to the Nazis treated in August 1939 America?

[Person Man]

Based on multiple reports, it appears that the areas surrounding the contact line in the Donbas are experiencing the heaviest artillery barrage since 2014/2015. Columns of Russian mechanized units have also been spotted tonight less than five kilometers from the Ukrainian border.

At this point, I am pretty sure some sort of operation is commencing and we'll soon see further Russian incursion into Ukraine. I think the only question at this point is whether it's the full-on assault that could see Kyiv encircled or some sort of limited invasion that seizes Kharkiv, Mariupol', and degrades Ukrainian infrastructure in the interior with air and missile strikes. I don't see what the 'limited' option really does for Putin in the strategic sense. If his goal is regime change, I don't know if that'll cut it.

What happens if Zelensky is sitting on unaccounted Nukes and there are reports of a nuclear explosion?

[Person Man]

Based on multiple reports, it appears that the areas surrounding the contact line in the Donbas are experiencing the heaviest artillery barrage since 2014/2015. Columns of Russian mechanized units have also been spotted tonight less than five kilometers from the Ukrainian border.

At this point, I am pretty sure some sort of operation is commencing and we'll soon see further Russian incursion into Ukraine. I think the only question at this point is whether it's the full-on assault that could see Kyiv encircled or some sort of limited invasion that seizes Kharkiv, Mariupol', and degrades Ukrainian infrastructure in the interior with air and missile strikes. I don't see what the 'limited' option really does for Putin in the strategic sense. If his goal is regime change, I don't know if that'll cut it.

What happens if Zelensky is sitting on unaccounted Nukes and there are reports of a nuclear explosion?

So, there definitely are unaccounted for Soviet nukes, and it's possible there's at least one in Ukraine. Although it's much more likely that any such "lost" bomb would be buried deep under some farm where a Soviet plane crashed decades ago in a totally unusable state and without anybody but some aging bureaucrat in Moscow knowing anything about it. But the chances that Ukraine has managed to keep even one nuke under wraps while also maintaining it (weapons-usable isotopes have half lifes ranging between 14 years and 700 million years, among other considerations) without any IAEA inspectors catching on, are slim to none.

There's also a thorough, reliable, global network of nuclear explosion detectors. So, if there were reports of a nuclear blast, we'd know whether those reports were true almost instantly, although there's no doubt you could convince people otherwise (I knew someone who was extremely knowledgeable about military/warfare stuff who was convinced Russia might have tested a nuke in Syria without anyone noticing - it's not true.)

So, the most likely answer to your question is that the attack would immediately be widely blamed on Russia, which I'm sure Russia would deny, but beyond that, we'd be in totally unprecedented territory, and it's impossible to say.

The ultimate question I was asking is that if it happened tonight/in the morning over there, would I be getting up to a mushroom cloud tomorrow?

[Person Man]

So the three basic outcomes are that

Nothing happens

There’s a “limited war” where Russia annexes a third of Ukraine and the rest joins NATO

There’s a war to conquer or puppet Ukraine and Russians either get bogged down or they are forced to escalate further.

[Person Man]

Anyways Biden MUST protect Ukraine. Even if direct troops aren’t on the ground, he MUST publicly be sending supplies to Ukrainian rebels and providing daily updates on how America is fighting the invasion (even if indirectly) if he doesn’t, his political career is DONE. Like it’s over, no more.

This could be how we get Trump again and probably another Republican after that. The silver lining is that maybe it will give people who have totally new ideas eventually a shot. Maybe we will have the next Bill Clinton in 32 or 36.

[Person Man]

Equity markets and RUB surged after Biden's speech.  I guess the sanctions were less than what was feared by the markets.

The sanctions so far were a nothing burger. Hopefully they ramp up fast. I do think Putin is going in for the kill, and "we" can't stop him. But "we" can isolate Russia economically, and so all we can to induce a regime change in Russia. Sure it might hurt our equity portfolios.  How much of yours as a percentage are you willing to give up in a punish Russia regime, assuming the ultimate "good" is not maximizing your net worth?

And where is Pervomaisk? Putting up names that even most of the uber map nerds here don't know is in my case elder abuse.

I think that’s it for now.

[Person Man]

"No comment" from India

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/escalation-of-tension-along-russia-ukraine-border-matter-of-deep-concern-india-at-un/article65073117.ece

"Deeply concerned over tensions, says India, but no comment on Russia’s recognition of Ukraine states"

Which wins praises from Russia

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/independent-and-balanced-russia-welcomes-indian-stand-on-ukraine-crisis-101645631388175.html

"‘Independent and balanced’: Russia welcomes Indian stand on Ukraine crisis"

That's either a nothingburger of the harbinger of further breaking of economic and diplomatic ties into the future. Potentially great for the romantics that want a 1913 world with nuclear weapons.

[Person Man]

I wonder what would happen if Borat made an appearance.

[Person Man]

Not directly. But it is possible that we are living in a period that future history books will cover under a chapter called "Road to World War 3".

Then again, you could say that the “Road to WWIII” started in the early 2000s, the way the road to WW2 started with the March on Rome. The question is if this is 1924 or 1938.

[Person Man]

Not directly. But it is possible that we are living in a period that future history books will cover under a chapter called "Road to World War 3".

Then again, you could say that the “Road to WWIII” started in the early 2000s, the way the road to WW2 started with the March on Rome. The question is if this is 1924 or 1938.

If we’re gonna go that far might as well call 9/11 the catalyst.

That’s probably what people will be saying 2122.

[Person Man]

If you support Russia's attack, I do not want to hear from you. Silence.

Is there a single person here who does support it though? Didn't get that impression tbh

Kander2020, BigSerg, compucomp and Vaccinated Russian Bear have been our pro-Putin contingent.

VRB seems like he may be having a bit of buyer's remorse as he's just been posting updates instead of crowing like you would expect.

Then we have a much larger coalition of "I'm not a Putin fan but..." folks.  Mostly the usual assortment of Chapo leftists and Tucker rightists.

Socialists and Nationalists are who they are.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/joncoopertweets/status/1496472039108009987

So basically full blown Nazi stuff?

[Person Man]

This is the way to go now, attack the oligarchs.

https://twitter.com/TheRickWilson/status/1496706587813199881?s=20&t=hyOF9Fss...

We need them all out of this country until we know what the hell is going on.

[Person Man]

This is the way to go now, attack the oligarchs.

https://twitter.com/TheRickWilson/status/1496706587813199881?s=20&t=hyOF9Fss...

Does he mean Russian children that were adopted before they outlawed it?

Those are now American children because the Russians didn’t want them. He’s most likely talking about the jerk off kids who come here with their parents Oligarch money.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1496709533661646850

OK, this is bad, if true (needs confirmation). Russia may be attacking Moldova also, not just Ukraine.

I saw a report of this 5-10 minutes ago but assumed it must be a mistake, but this is 2nd report I saw.

There are butts on Twitter decimating propaganda. We have to know better than this.