Cities vs. rest of county

[mileslunn]

Got Orange County, Florida results, but need to know which numbers to code for Orlando.  Got maps of other smaller municipalities but not which are Orlando and unincorporated areas.  Once I have that I can calculate it which is last major Florida I need to calculate.


Trump won Belle Isle, Edgewood, Oakland, and Windemere

Couldn't find (note I just did total minus Orlando for rest but those two hardly any people anyways) Bay Lake, Lake Buena Vista

[mileslunn]

While generally stick to central cities not suburbs, this depending on how you count it could count as one. 

St. Petersburg

Biden: 97,350 (61.3%)
Trump: 58,984 (37.2%)

Rest of Pinellas County

Trump: 217,225 (54%)
Biden: 180,100 (44.6%)

Gulfport only other community Biden won, everything else went for Trump, but outside St. Petersburg very white so rest of Pinellas County numbers is probably what the results were amongst whites throughout county or close to that, but since St. Petersburg has a large African-American community, that is why Biden won it.  Although Gulfport is 89% white and Trump only got 36% so it bucks the trend.

[mileslunn]

Dauphin County, Pennsylvania below.

Harrisburg:

Biden: 15,897 (84.1%)
Trump: 2,712 (14.3%)
Total: 18,907

rest of Dauphin County

Trump: 63,696 (49.4%)
Biden: 63,086 (48.9%)
Total: 128,994

Trump won big in rural parts no surprise.  Harrisburg voted so heavily Democrat as it is 52% African-American, 18% Hispanic while whites only 30% and a lot living there would be civil servants so naturally lean Democratic unlike surrounding areas which are quite socially conservative.  Biden also one most adjacent boroughs by sizeable margins although not quite as lopsided as Harrisburg but again large minority although not minority-majority and lots of Civil servants.  Eastern part near Hershey in Derry Township went for Biden too and I believe Hershey is very much white working class so an area you would think Trump would do well in.  Famous for chocolates.  Northern part is more hilly and very rural so went for Trump in landslide.

Lots of Harrisburg suburbs are in Cumberland county and it was unlike Dauphin county suburbs, pretty evenly split (but those ones a lot whiter) while rural parts pushed county towards Trump.

[mileslunn]

Here is for Hinds County.

Jackson

Biden: 52,449 (84.3%)
Trump: 8,738 (14.1%)
Total: 62,191

Rest of Hinds County

Biden: 21,101 (55.5%)
Trump: 16,403 (43.1%)
Total: 38,017

Like much of the south very racially polarized but appears in Byram which is more affluent Biden did win a sizeable minority of white voters although it is becoming a lot more diverse than in past.

[mileslunn]

Here is for Douglas County, Nebraska

Omaha

Biden:  128,093 (57%)
Trump: 90,665 (40.4%)
Total: 224,661

Rest of Douglas County

Trump: 28,494 (54.9%)
Biden: 22,257 (42.9%)
Total: 51,879

Omaha extends pretty much out to countryside thus not surprising Trump did a bit better than most cities.  Biden did narrowly win Ralston and also areas just beyond city limits which are still largely built up, but rural areas went heavily for Trump as did some precincts just outside city.  Most of the formal suburbs I believe are in Sarpy County.

[mileslunn]

Here is a rough approximation of Oklahoma City.  Vote by mail not split by precinct so made adjustments from there, but comes out to approximately as follows below.

Oklahoma City

Biden: 52%
Trump: 45%

Rest of Oklahoma County

Trump: 58%
Biden: 39%

Oklahoma City as a whole if you include Canadian and Cleveland counties comes out to approximately Trump 51% to Biden 47% as Trump won the Cleveland and Canadian county portions.  Again due to precinct splits in Cleveland county very rough.  Canadian County only one I could exact for, however Trump got around 2/3 in both the OKC parts of those counties.  Cleveland County was closer due to Norman which is a college town which Biden won.

[mileslunn]

For Tulsa, here are the approximate.  It doesn't split vote by mail so I adjusted proportionally and got approximate.

Tulsa

Biden: 50%
Trump: 47%

Rest of Tulsa County

Trump: 67%
Biden: 30%

Trump likely won Tulsa as it expands into other counties but it was close.  Tulsa and Oklahoma City I think stretch out further than most thus why Trump competitive, but I believe downtown cores went pretty heavily Democrat.

[mileslunn]

For Tulsa, here are the approximate.  It doesn't split vote by mail so I adjusted proportionally and got approximate.

Tulsa

Biden: 50%
Trump: 47%


Rest of Tulsa County

Trump: 67%
Biden: 30%

Trump likely won Tulsa as it expands into other counties but it was close.  Tulsa and Oklahoma City I think stretch out further than most thus why Trump competitive, but I believe downtown cores went pretty heavily Democrat.

Are you only including the parts of Tulsa within the county itself or the entire city?

Just parts in Tulsa County.  If you include other parts, Trump likely narrowly won it.  While not certain, looks like Trump narrowly won both Oklahoma City and Tulsa, but not by much.

[mileslunn]

Here is for Bernalillo County.  With lots of split precincts this is just approximate.

Albuquerque

Biden: 62.2%
Trump: 35.4%

Rest of Bernalillo County

Biden: 55.3%
Trump: 40.6%

[mileslunn]

Anyone want to take a crack at Gulfport, MS, and Biloxi, MS vs. Harrison County, or Oxford, MS vs. Lafayette County, or Ocean Springs, MS and Pascagoula, MS vs. Jackson County? I tried to calculate Gulfport, Biloxi, and Ocean Springs, but messed up bad and have no idea how to get correct results.

This is what I got but numbers look at bit small as some precincts by voting location so I only included those specifying name.

Biloxi

Trump: 5,077 (51.5%)
Biden: 4,577 (46.4%)
Total: 9,861

Gulfport

Biden: 6,253 (76.5%)
Trump: 1,784 (21.8%)
Total: 8,170

Rest of Harrison County:

Trump: 39,851 (69%)
Biden: 16,898 (29.3%)
Total: 57,737

Oxford

Trump: 7,506 (49.3%)
Biden: 7,440 (48.9%)
Total: 15,226

Rest of Lafayette County

Trump: 5,443 (66.4%)
Biden: 2,630 (32.1%)
Total: 8,197

For Jackson County will take a while as have to google where each voting place is located in.

[mileslunn]

Would love to hear about would love to hear about Cuyahoga, Franklin, and Hamilton counties in Ohio

Its at bottom of page 4 https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=412697.75

[mileslunn]

Anyone want to take a crack at Gulfport, MS, and Biloxi, MS vs. Harrison County, or Oxford, MS vs. Lafayette County, or Ocean Springs, MS and Pascagoula, MS vs. Jackson County? I tried to calculate Gulfport, Biloxi, and Ocean Springs, but messed up bad and have no idea how to get correct results.

This is what I got but numbers look at bit small as some precincts by voting location so I only included those specifying name.

Biloxi

Trump: 5,077 (51.5%)
Biden: 4,577 (46.4%)
Total: 9,861

Gulfport

Biden: 6,253 (76.5%)
Trump: 1,784 (21.8%)
Total: 8,170

Rest of Harrison County:

Trump: 39,851 (69%)
Biden: 16,898 (29.3%)
Total: 57,737

Oxford

Trump: 7,506 (49.3%)
Biden: 7,440 (48.9%)
Total: 15,226

Rest of Lafayette County

Trump: 5,443 (66.4%)
Biden: 2,630 (32.1%)
Total: 8,197

For Jackson County will take a while as have to google where each voting place is located in.

I don't think these are right for Gulfport or Biloxi given that Trump narrowly carried Gulfport in 2016 and there's not that much of the county population that isn't in one of those two.

For sure, Gulfport makes no sense, although with it having a larger African-American population than Biloxi, possible Biden won it.  I just posted ones directly linked to one of the cities not those listing other things like church, school etc.  I can work on that but would take a bit longer.

[mileslunn]

I will try to get this fixed in next day and see what I can do.  Oxford seems quite believable as its Deep South where voting is very racially polarized.  In Mississippi unlike other states, GOP dominates whites pretty much everywhere, even in areas that would go Democrat in other states.

[mileslunn]

Using following link, anyone able to calculate Huntsville vs. rest of Madison County; Montgomery rest of Montgomery County and Mobile vs. rest of Mobile Count

https://www.sos.alabama.gov/alabama-votes/voter/election-data

[mileslunn]

I will try to get this fixed in next day and see what I can do.  Oxford seems quite believable as its Deep South where voting is very racially polarized.  In Mississippi unlike other states, GOP dominates whites pretty much everywhere, even in areas that would go Democrat in other states.

Looking at the precinct map these numbers actually appear to be correct for Oxford. Not 100% sure but looks like we arrived at the same vote numbers.

Do you have Boise vs. rest of Ada County and also Colorado Springs vs. rest of El Paso County?

[mileslunn]

Here is for Fort Wayne, Indiana

Fort Wayne

Biden:  54,696 (50.25%)
Trump: 51,160 (47%)
Total: 108,847

Rest of Allen County

Trump: 40,923 (67.94%)
Biden:  18,493 (30.7%)
Trump: 60,235

[mileslunn]

Here is for Fort Wayne, Indiana

Fort Wayne

Biden:  54,696 (50.25%)
Trump: 51,160 (47%)
Total: 108,847

Rest of Allen County

Trump: 40,923 (67.94%)
Biden:  18,493 (30.7%)
Trump: 60,235

Here's two for you - Terre Haute and Evansville. Wanna give them a shot?

Ironically Terre Hate and Evansville were 50% Biden to 47% Trump

[mileslunn]

Here is Evansville:

Biden:  22,748 (50.83%)
Trump:  21,075 (47.1%)
Total: 44,754

Rest of Vanderburgh County

Trump:  20,769 (63.11%)
Biden: 11,667 (36.34%)
Total: 32,908

[mileslunn]

And Here is Terre Haute, have to manually calculate as unfortunately Indiana uses PDF not Excel for files so takes a bit longer.

Terre Haute:

Biden: 10,277 (50.04%)
Trump: 9,706 (47.26%)
Total: 20,536

Rest of Vigo County

Trump: 14,839 (64.36%)
Biden: 7,846 (34.03%)
Total: 23,058

[mileslunn]

Here is Springfield, Missouri.  This excludes absentee ballots, but it was fairly close so probably only changed by a percent or two if you include those, so below made an estimate on that

Absentee

Biden: 18,997 (52.67%)
Trump: 16,581 (45.97%)
Total: 36,237

Springfield

Trump:  25,364 (53.99%)
Biden: 19,837 (42.23%)
Total: 46977

Rest of Greene County

Trump: 41,685 (71.15%)
Biden: 16,234 (27,71%)
Total: 58,586

So adjusting

It is approximately

Springfield:

Trump 49%
Biden 47%

Rest of Greene County

Trump 66%
Biden 32%

So looks like Trump narrowly won Springfield.

[mileslunn]

Here is Springfield, Missouri.  This excludes absentee ballots, but it was fairly close so probably only changed by a percent or two if you include those, so below made an estimate on that

Absentee

Biden: 18,997 (52.67%)
Trump: 16,581 (45.97%)
Total: 36,237

Springfield

Trump:  25,364 (53.99%)
Biden: 19,837 (42.23%)
Total: 46977

Rest of Greene County

Trump: 41,685 (71.15%)
Biden: 16,234 (27,71%)
Total: 58,586

So adjusting

It is approximately

Springfield:

Trump 49%
Biden 47%

Rest of Greene County

Trump 66%
Biden 32%

So looks like Trump narrowly won Springfield.

Could you do Joplin? Kinda curious about it.

I will try over weekend.

[mileslunn]

Here is Tulsa vs. rest of Tulsa County.  They only give vote in person by precinct, absentee is lumped together and precincts don't perfectly match boundaries, so this is a rough estimate adjusting for differences.

Tulsa:

Biden: 50%
Trump: 47%

Rest of Tulsa County

Trump: 67%
Biden: 30%

Trump won election day precincts 55-42 but for entire county, absentee was 61-36 while election day was 64-33 so I subtracted 8 points for Trump and added 8 for Biden but again rough estimate.

[mileslunn]

Here is Springfield, Missouri.  This excludes absentee ballots, but it was fairly close so probably only changed by a percent or two if you include those, so below made an estimate on that

Absentee

Biden: 18,997 (52.67%)
Trump: 16,581 (45.97%)
Total: 36,237

Springfield

Trump:  25,364 (53.99%)
Biden: 19,837 (42.23%)
Total: 46977

Rest of Greene County

Trump: 41,685 (71.15%)
Biden: 16,234 (27,71%)
Total: 58,586

So adjusting

It is approximately

Springfield:

Trump 49%
Biden 47%

Rest of Greene County

Trump 66%
Biden 32%

So looks like Trump narrowly won Springfield.

Could you do Joplin? Kinda curious about it.

I will try over weekend.

Mind doing Kirksville and Cape Girardeau too?

Will try to over next few days.

[mileslunn]

Here is Lancaster county, Pennsylvania

Lancaster:

Biden: 17,383 (73.4%)
Trump: 5,791 (24.5%)
Total: 23,683

Rest of Lancaster County

Trump: 154,418 (59.9%)
Biden: 98,464 (38.2%)
Total: 257,692

Lancaster is 38% Hispanic and 29% Puerto Rican thus despite Trump's gains amongst them still went heavily Democrat.  Rest of Lancaster County has a large Amish community who are quite conservative.

[mileslunn]

Here is Greenville vs. rest of Greenville County.  Greenville actually voted for Biden despite being around 70% white so guessing more educated than other areas in South Carolina.

Greenville:

Biden: 19,447 (56.3%)
Trump: 14,284 (41.4%)
Total: 34,539

Rest of Greenville county

Trump: 134,789 (60.8%)
Biden: 83,029 (37.4%)
Total: 221,867