2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[new_patomic]

Ya'll gonna drive yourselves insane

I mean I will too, but still

[new_patomic]

If I'm understanding correctly, so far Republicans are winning the ED vote in Florida 50-25-25? From the counties reporting registration #s at least.

[new_patomic]

If I'm understanding correctly, so far Republicans are winning the ED vote in Florida 50-25-25? From the counties reporting registration #s at least.

Republicans will likely come out with a half-million lead after election day overall, but it's the Indys that will decide it.

Election day will likely add another 1-2 million in FL, and those skew 50-25-25 Republican.

Good night.

To be fair, that's not including Miami-Dade. But nice.

[new_patomic]

The other problem is, even with Miami not included, the pace of gain seems down to 20-30K votes an hour. Which if extrapolated puts them at maybe... just at 300K assuming they can keep it at 30K, not including anything bad from Miami, etc.

[new_patomic]

People are right that this doesn't tell us anything about margin.

But it's a not stretch to realize that, generally, Trump would probably prefer an electorate that is more Republican than not. If his magic number is actually R+4 can be debatable, but the closer it is to even the more you have to assume that for him to win he's either not losing independents (by much) or is not leaking cross-over votes.

[new_patomic]

Wasn't the EV for Republicans pretty good in Miami-Dade?

Would be hard to imagine that didn't cannibalize quite a bit of their ED vote.

[new_patomic]

https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/status/1323699959330471938?s=20

[new_patomic]

Found the Jorgensen voter

https://twitter.com/holamikoo/status/1323676557353783297?s=20

[new_patomic]

Trump probably needs to lose the FL NPA vote by no more than 5 points to have a shot. Lost them by 1.5 points in 2016.

With the current numbers, he would need to WIN the NPA voters to have a shot.

It's not that bad, I think?

As long as there are few cross-over votes.

[new_patomic]

Ralston here to tell us absolutely nothing

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1323710621133594625?s=20

[new_patomic]

There's like 10 conflicting reads of the data here but it sounds less DOOMERY than an hour ago.  Must mean the numbers are looking better for Biden.

For me I just need some idea of what this or that statistic that's being dropped means as this is the first time I've watched the election day vote and it gets aggravating when I'm told to just read 25 pages as if I have the time to do that rather than a quick explanation

Florida R turnout is slowing down relative to D’s as the day progresses.

I mean, isn't this somewhat expected?  Turnout isn't steady across the day, and the GOP was always going to make up the most in the "after work" 4-6pm voters.

I was under the impression that Democrats usually constituted a greater portion of the after-work voters, but I can't say if that's (a) even a thing and/or (b) even a thing in Florida.  

That was my impression.

Though I suppose it might be a bit flipped this year, given Democrats are doing relatively stronger with senior voters who vote in the morning.

[new_patomic]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323714894143827975

Hmm.

So improved 20K, or about 24K if you take out the update from Miami-Dade which I think was Biden +4K?

[new_patomic]

With the latest AZ update (bad news for Trump), AZ flipped from Trump to Biden on PredictIt

Love seeing that green arrow

[new_patomic]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323728684482703365?s=20

Gain of just 16K versus 230

[new_patomic]

So far of reporting counties there have been 1.4M Election Day votes in Florida.

In terms of registration, they have split
47 R - 26 D - 27 NPV/O

[new_patomic]

To get to even R+3 the GOP would have to win a pretty huge chunk of whatever vote is outstanding in Florida, right?

If they're at 10.4M now, and assuming they get to maybe 11M, that's... a hard ask.

[new_patomic]

I think the thing I care least for is "sources tell me that" style reporting.

Is it possible that someone from Trump's camp really is worried about ED turnout, or that Republican operatives are confident in Texas? Sure. But how often have such vague reports ended up just being total BS by the time the night ended.

[new_patomic]

There apparently will be exit polls at 5

[new_patomic]

LOL! Cuomo would sooner give the Senate seat to his brother than AOC.

Don't give him ideas, he probably wants to

At least Chris is the good looking one?

[new_patomic]

The CNN exit polls at 5 will be essentially useless until the results are final correct?

Exit polls are mostly useless anyway, but early exits especially.

The best you'll get is something like "51 percent of the voters who have voted so far believe it's time for change."

[new_patomic]

18K since 3:30

[new_patomic]

Exit polls do include early/absentee voters, I think through surveys.

I'm not sure how the composition/turnout affect them, but regardless early exits are useless anyway so who cares.

[new_patomic]

The real exit poll were the sh**t posts we made along the way

[new_patomic]

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1323758217772617739?s=20

[new_patomic]

The hell is going on in Indiana

you don't post results before polls close?