This Once Great Movement Of Ours

[CumbrianLefty]

Times front page today is a classic of distorted pro-Tory reporting. Even the likes of Jones and Sarkar had absolutely no interest in defending Abbott - ie there is no meaningful "row".

[LabourJersey]

Also to be blunt a lot of people (to sounds like Trump!) where questioning some of her tweets over the recent weeks and months; it is a genuine shame that she didn't say, stand down in 2015, as she would have had a very different political obit to her current one.

The most underrated political skill is knowing when it's best to step aside.

[CumbrianLefty]

Both her and Corbyn should retire at the next GE, even were they still Labour MPs.

[CumbrianLefty]

I think that could happen (in contrast to Corbyn, where there is basically zero chance)

However, one does suspect that she will have to grovel a bit more first.

(and maybe agree to retire at the next GE as well)

[Blair]

Reshuffle speculation seems to be hotting up. So baseless speculation time.

Rumours of Yvette Cooper or Lammy getting moved; would be shocked if both are, but I guess the only job Yvette would accept is Shadow Foreign Sec and would she be that bad at the ‘looking serious’ and talking about ‘multi-lateral solutions’- besides it’s a relatively strange job.

The issue would be where Lammy goes; he struggled at shadow justice imv, so it might be easier to keep them both were they are.

Darren Jones has been briefed several times as likely to get a job; digital would make sense but he could theoretically go anywhere.

Jim McMahon has been getting briefed against for ages; a council leader from Oldham was always a strange choice for DEFRA in the current environment and yesterdays vote will give a reason for those looking for one.

A few people would ideally get promoted; Thornberry, Haigh and some obvious people who haven’t been that great

[Blair]

On an aside something Starmer should learn from Sunak and Blair is that you can do quite well having a no.2 in a junior role who ends up doing a lot of the work and heavy lifting while the Secretary of State either just does the media or is there for party management reasons.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Arguably the recent kerfuffle over posters was a result of the fact that Starmer is already doing that.

[CumbrianLefty]

Reshuffle speculation seems to be hotting up. So baseless speculation time.

Rumours of Yvette Cooper or Lammy getting moved; would be shocked if both are, but I guess the only job Yvette would accept is Shadow Foreign Sec and would she be that bad at the ‘looking serious’ and talking about ‘multi-lateral solutions’- besides it’s a relatively strange job.

Involving the sort of thing that she is arguably best at, ie mostly "serious person" vibes.

[YL]

Former MP for Kensington Emma Dent Coad has left the Labour Party.  (Although of course she said that she hadn't left the party, the party had left her.)

[Lord Halifax]

(Although of course she said that she hadn't left the party, the party had left her.)

a true classic

[CumbrianLefty]

She was quite happy to become a Labour councillor in 2006, when on any remotely objective calculus the party was significantly to the right of where it is now.

Part of this, as I have said elsewhere, is the online left becoming "radicalised" - not least due to the fact we went into lockdown (and stayed there to a greater or lesser extent for the next two years) a matter of months after the last GE. Actual political activism was replaced by conspiracy theory for all too many people, and the history of what actually happened under Corbyn was largely rewritten by the resultant online bubble. Of course, we can see similar tendencies on the right as well.

[Blair]

Speaking as someone who did my service as a deeply unhappy and outvoted lay member in a CLP in the 15-19 era it’s a lot harder to stay when both your own project is weak and leaderless and when there’s no chance of the existing leadership getting changed- by late 2018 I could very much see the point of staying in and what the fights would be over (stopping my MP getting triggered and voting for JC’s successor)

[Blair]

On reflection it’s remarkable how quickly the left in labour folded. Has anyone even mentioned Rebecca Long Bailey since June 2020?

[CumbrianLefty]

Speaking as someone who did my service as a deeply unhappy and outvoted lay member in a CLP in the 15-19 era it’s a lot harder to stay when both your own project is weak and leaderless and when there’s no chance of the existing leadership getting changed- by late 2018 I could very much see the point of staying in and what the fights would be over (stopping my MP getting triggered and voting for JC’s successor)

Though as John McDonnell amongst others tells younger leftists, their position in Labour appeared to be much worse than now not that long before the 2015 GE. If the last decade has shown anything, it is that seemingly entrenched positions of strength can collapse with remarkable speed. And the current reliance of the right on "bureaucratic means" to keep control surely makes that more likely.

Though that's doesn't mean the left can just wait for things to move their way just by default. Yes, a Starmer government will give them openings (especially so if it disappoints, but even if it is popular and relatively successful as Blair's first 5 years as PM mostly were) but they need to junk the growing tendency for nefarious conspiracies to explain everything, and get over Corbyn as a person.

[JimJamUK]

Random observation - It’s surprising how little discussion there has been within Labour about setting illegal council budgets. There were a few instances during the Miliband era where a random Labour councillor advocated doing so, but otherwise it’s been pretty much completely absent from the discussion. Given the poor and ever deteriorating state of council services you would think it would have been raised by at least a few more ‘cranks’, either under Corbyn’s leadership where this sort of idea could have got a bit of traction, or under Starmer leadership where some disgruntled Corbynistas could have supported it on their way out. Any guesses why this has not happened?

[Blair]

Random observation - It’s surprising how little discussion there has been within Labour about setting illegal council budgets. There were a few instances during the Miliband era where a random Labour councillor advocated doing so, but otherwise it’s been pretty much completely absent from the discussion. Given the poor and ever deteriorating state of council services you would think it would have been raised by at least a few more ‘cranks’, either under Corbyn’s leadership where this sort of idea could have got a bit of traction, or under Starmer leadership where some disgruntled Corbynistas could have supported it on their way out. Any guesses why this has not happened?

One of the questions when you apply to be a labour councillor is would you support an illegal budget- if you answer yes, or fail to understand why it’s a bad thing you pretty much get a big red line through your name.

On a practical sense I also assume it’s because they know it would lead to the commissioners being sent in and your career being over

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes, the legislative framework now makes it completely suicidal as a course of action and effectively instantly as well, which is the difference with how things used to be.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, the party was just as firm about it being a non-starter when Corbyn was leader.

[Coldstream]

Reshuffle speculation seems to be hotting up. So baseless speculation time.

Rumours of Yvette Cooper or Lammy getting moved; would be shocked if both are, but I guess the only job Yvette would accept is Shadow Foreign Sec and would she be that bad at the ‘looking serious’ and talking about ‘multi-lateral solutions’- besides it’s a relatively strange job.

The issue would be where Lammy goes; he struggled at shadow justice imv, so it might be easier to keep them both were they are.

Darren Jones has been briefed several times as likely to get a job; digital would make sense but he could theoretically go anywhere.
Jim McMahon has been getting briefed against for ages; a council leader from Oldham was always a strange choice for DEFRA in the current environment and yesterdays vote will give a reason for those looking for one.

A few people would ideally get promoted; Thornberry, Haigh and some obvious people who haven’t been that great

Cooper, Lammy and McMahon have been underwhelming, but the first two have the advantage of being former ministers - and LOTO want people who can do the job on day 1 of getting in to government. McMahon I think is there for the same reason with his experience - though I think everyone agrees it’s a weird role for him.

The only other people who are former cabinet members left not in the shadow cabinet are Margaret Beckett (retiring), Ben Bradshaw (retiring), Stephen Timms (old + awful views on LGBT rights), Liam Byrne (baggage from that note, losing mayoralty in 2021 & suspension from Parliament) and Hilary Benn - who’s always tipped for returns but I’ll believe it when I see it.

There’s only a few others left with ministerial experience who aren’t retiring:

Angela Eagle (not exactly universally popular, and may be a backwards step),
John Spellar (pretty old, may stand down last minute to let one of the L2W Leading lights in to Parliament)
Gareth Thomas (currently a shadow minister, could move up but not that high profile)
Barry Gardiner (discredited in the eyes of LOTO, and most of the party)
Maria Eagle (more popular than her sister, but may be seen as a backward step again)
Karen Buck (currently a shadow minister, again - may move up but hasn’t been talked about)
Derek Twigg (not been a frontbencher for a long time, anti-equal marriage)
Kevin Brennan (not been a frontbencher since Starmer, low profile)
Kevan Jones (not been a frontbencher under Starmer, low profile since 2016)
Chris Bryant (not exactly a team player or popular - hence his failed speakership run - would only come back for a top job since he’s a select committee chair)
Diana Johnson (not been a frontbencher under Starmer, fairly popular & respected though so could come back to do something)
Barbara Keeley (was Shad Cab under Corbyn but fired by Starmer, though he has brought her back - performed fairly well last time she was in the Shad Cab so could be, but not been talked about)
Dawn Butler (seen as dodgy on anti-semitism & too associated with Corbyn, no chance Imo)

So on the experience side, the Eagles are probably the only high profile ones semi-likely to come back, and I sort of think if Starmer wanted them he’d have got them back earlier.

On the promoting rising stars side: Darren Jones would only leave his committee for a full shad cab job, but he’d be a great addition. I think Streeting might get moved to Education, maybe even a straight job swap. I think Stephen Morgan & Sarah Jones might move up too - both are reasonable/reliable.

[CumbrianLefty]

Hilary Benn is 70 this year, so for that reason alone less likely to return to the front bench than certain others that you have listed (though he is over-rated by "sensible centrist" types a la Cooper anyway)

[Blair]

What was the perception of Yvette in THIGMOO when she was a Minister?

[CumbrianLefty]

Serious allegations made against a shadow minister of sexual harrassment and/or assault. As long as it is all rumour, though, hard to say what is the best course for the leadership.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Serious allegations made against a shadow minister of sexual harrassment and/or assault. As long as it is all rumour, though, hard to say what is the best course for the leadership.

If no formal complaint is made it's difficult to know exactly what can be done in a situation like that. Bolsters the case for stronger oversight from Commons officials over things like this, I think.

[Conservatopia]

Serious allegations made against a shadow minister of sexual harrassment and/or assault. As long as it is all rumour, though, hard to say what is the best course for the leadership.

If no formal complaint is made it's difficult to know exactly what can be done in a situation like that. Bolsters the case for stronger oversight from Commons officials over things like this, I think.

It's actually a real problem to know what to do in all these situations. The Tory MP we're not allowed to name cannot be suspended because then his victim would be revealed. This means that in order to protect the victims the MP can technically still attend Parliament.

We also can't start suspending at the slightest allegation because that would open it up to abuse.

We can't just wait for the wheels of justice because it would mean predators are allowed onto the estate.

I say arrest all the MPs and then sift out the MPs who are clean. Both of them.

[Blair]

It’s the anniversary of John Smith’s passing.

A remarkable man- probably the most beloved figure from the right of the party among people of a certain age.

Always wondered how his Government would have ended up.