UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Mostly blind guessing here.
Hartlepool: Lab
West Midlands: Con
Tees Valley Con
London: Lab
Scotland: SNP largest party

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Mostly blind guessing here.
Hartlepool: Lab
West Midlands: Con
Tees Valley Lab
London: Lab
Scotland: SNP largest party

That really would be a *far* bigger shock than Labour holding Hartlepool.

(in truth, they are more likely to win W Mids - and that is a longish shot)

Yeah, just actually researched about that one and Labour's internals showed them at...low 30s back in January.
I'm reversing that. That'll happen when the moon turns purple.
I wanted to place a bet on an upset win somewhere, but this was too far a bridge for me.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The Tories would have to be very, very stupid to dump Boris, I feel.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Not sure how on earth that happened, Starmer needs to go further in ruthlessly eliminating Labour's negatives and now take the chance to promote some bold sounding policies that poll well. The problem is that Boris right now is pretty popular with the vaccine rollout, hopefully his popularity will fade over the next few years. It's a shame that there is no electoral penalty for the many errors in the Covid response but there's not much that can be done, Covid is in the past.

In Hartlepool it seems both candidates were good and capable of earning crossover support. What tipped things in a big way is Boris. He's the 800-pound gorilla.
God help Labour if they still face popular Boris in 2024.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Not sure how on earth that happened, Starmer needs to go further in ruthlessly eliminating Labour's negatives and now take the chance to promote some bold sounding policies that poll well. The problem is that Boris right now is pretty popular with the vaccine rollout, hopefully his popularity will fade over the next few years. It's a shame that there is no electoral penalty for the many errors in the Covid response but there's not much that can be done, Covid is in the past.

In Hartlepool it seems both candidates were good and capable of earning crossover support. What tipped things in a big way is Boris. He's the 800-pound gorilla.
God help Labour if they still face popular Boris in 2024.

On the contrary both candidates were "a bit sh**t" (to use a Britishism), but their weaknesses probably cancelled each other out.

What makes you think Williams earned "crossover support"? He got less votes than Labour did in 2019.

I said "capable of earning crossover support".
Seriously...I expected you to have better reading comprehension than this...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Chesham and Amersham will be on June 17.
https://www.buckinghamshire.gov.uk/your-council/council-and-democracy/election-and-voting/election-timetable-and-notices/

Very close to June 21, why didn't the Tories just have it after they have eliminated all social distancing restrictions?

We don’t know for sure that they will lift all the restrictions on June 21st, but even if they do, perhaps it’s better for them to have the anticipation of freedom in the voters minds (whereas I suspect if they have it after people will quickly forget about it).

I mean ultimately it probably makes very little difference to the result either way and gets the seat filled quicker.

I'm not sure I like our candidate though.

Yeah, it's not like there is much at stake here in regards to when the date is. It should be very safe Con and anything else would be caused not by the date but rather by more relevant factors.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I can't believe the Liberals would overperform in a by-election, out of nowhere. This has never happened before.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I've had it up to here with people calling south Buckinghamshire "progressive." The Guardian recently alluded to it being "bourgeois bohemian."
Somewhere doesn't vote over 50% Tory in 2001 if it's progressive!

"bourgeois bohemian" is beyond parody and hilariously ridiculous.

People are force-fitting a label onto Am&Ches purely on basis on what party it voted for. Vapid and stupid, exactly on par with what to expect from the British press.
edit: post #19,000

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Arguably Keir only won in 2020 because the Talent Pool was so dire & those who were better politicians than him couldn't bear to play the 'pretend to like Corbynism & serve in the Shadow Cabinet' role.

Labour has a very real problem in thinking that the grass is always greener with another leader- Gordon would be better than Tony, David better that Ed, Dan Jarvis better than Andy Burnham, Yvette Cooper better than Corbyn, Keir better than Corbyn & now Burnham better than Keir- and will no doubt return if Burnham becomes leader & we have the moral panic about one his many flaws.

It is also worth remembering that a lot of people want Labour to lose these by-elections as they want an excuse to get rid of Keir- it was the exact same for the Labour right in 2016. I'm not sure how much of it is just hyper-onlineism but the Labour party has a toxicity problem that neither other party has.

It was being briefed last year that Keir would be challenged in year two if he was not leading in the polls (and it was briefed the day after JC became leader that he would be removed)

So many in the Labour Party seem to have as much confidence in the elected leader of their party as a Premier League team would have in its coach...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

anyone got a good livestream ?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i5WePSaHROs
I found this via Youtube search. It might or might not suit your purposes.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It's comfortably well off suburbia for the most part but in a middle management kind of way rather than a higher professionals way and is also quite old - the average age is either the oldest in the GLA area or close to it. I suppose there's also a bit of a white-flighty element as well. These factors usually correlated to higher support for Leave in the referendum. But remember most places weren't overwhelmingly for one side or the other: the estimated resulted for this constituency was 62.4 to 37.6, which is a substantial lead but not a massive blowout.

It's worth noting there are other parts of London that are Brexit-y as well and London by no means was monolithically Remain . Look at SW London.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is the first time a non-Conservative has won the constituency since 1904.
This is only the second time a non-Conservative has topped the poll since 1832.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

On a slightly amusing note I have been "invited to stand as a parliamentary candidate" by RefUK. They must be really desperate for candidates. I'm nuts.

You should accept if you want and be a paper candidate so you can get the distinction of being an Atlas poster who ran for office along with Harry Hayfield and afleitch.

This!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Tbh I just love the fact that the liberal democrat ostensibly a pro-free trade party is now mainly getting in the news for winning rural seats at least partialy due to rural resentment of the goverment not being protectionist enough for Farmers.

The 2000s called, they wanted their protest vote Lib Dem electorate back.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If we look at English by-elections (and excluding Southend West) we have the following average vote share changes

Conservative: -10.7%
Labour -4.4%
Lib Dem +11.4%

These elections also include Hartlepool (the first by-election; a Conservative gain) and Batley and Spen (intervention).

Without Hartlepool (a reverse intervention), the Tory vote drops on average by 15.5

If we look at the same picture in the 1992-1997 Parliament, but only during the years Blair was leader of the Labour Party, the Tory share dropped by 17.7 points on average (Labour up 13.9, Lib Dems down 2.0). These were contests on more favourable seats for Labour than the current crops of seats up for election.

So the Tory share is as down by almost as much as it was during the period in which they were heading for the exit.

The Lib Dem gains now are even more impressive given that in most seats they are recovering from relative historic lows for a third party.

Though is that Lib Dem average that meaningful? In three out of elections they got more than 45% of the vote, in the remaining five they couldn't break 4%. It's a pattern of really striking advances where they're the most plausible anti-Tory option and absolutely nothing where they aren't.

I presume that as long as strategic voting is all the rage, you'll see more and more of that.

It would be really interesting if we got a by-election in a seat where the 2019 result was something like Con 45 Lab 25 LD 23 where the LDs are in third but with a strong base and requiring a much lower swing than their recent gains and Labour is in second and isn't completely out of contention but far enough back that a straight Con->Lab flip is unlikely.

It's worth noticing that in the 1992-1997 by-elections Labour gained a lot more than they are now, especially in straight Con-Lab fights.

Perhaps a Cornwall constituency or some seat in Wimbledon might fit the bill here?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I would think that in the current environment, there is not a single solitary Tory seat in all of the UK that could be considered safe in a byelection context. Seriously, can anyone name ANY seat at all that the Tories would be favoured to hold if a byelection took place tomorrow? I can't

North East Hampshire? (maybe)
EDIT: After looking at 2019 results, I would put forth Sleaford and North Hykeham.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I would think that in the current environment, there is not a single solitary Tory seat in all of the UK that could be considered safe in a byelection context. Seriously, can anyone name ANY seat at all that the Tories would be favoured to hold if a byelection took place tomorrow? I can't

There are still a bunch in eastern England generally (especially Essex, but really in a belt running from Lincolnshire south to Kent, even including a few seats within London, such as Hornchurch and Upminster) that I would think are safe. I think, without checking, that that is at least 100 seats total. Really any seat with a majority of more than 20% where the Lib Dems are irrelevant (which let's say means less than 10% of the vote in 2019). Those seats are concentrated in the belt I mentioned but there are some outside of it, too. Can be a bit of a "feel" thing since there are some seats where the Lib Dems got low votes in 2019 but still might have potential.

I would think that in the current environment, there is not a single solitary Tory seat in all of the UK that could be considered safe in a byelection context. Seriously, can anyone name ANY seat at all that the Tories would be favoured to hold if a byelection took place tomorrow? I can't

North East Hampshire? (maybe)
EDIT: After looking at 2019 results, I would put forth Sleaford and North Hykeham.

North East Hampshire I think would fall to the Lib Dems in a by-election held tomorrow. Sleaford and North Hykeham is definitely in the group I mentioned above, though.

I was shocked to learn just how high the Lib Dem vote was in North East  Hampshire in 2019. 26 freaking percent...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Though of course the seat then contained what was to become Milton Keynes.

Back to Chester - in many ways a pretty good parallel is Exeter.

Which only ever voted Labour once prior to 1997. Btw anyone not already aware might look up the hilariously inappropriate* candidate the Tories picked for that election.....  

(* this is actually a distinctly diplomatic description)

How would it have felt, being on the ground in that election campaign in Chester? As an observer, anyhow.
EDIT: Post #32,000

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Crick rather than Crichton - sometimes fiction does turn up on his Twitter feed, but only because his fact-checking is poor enough that he has fallen for obviously made-up names of potential candidates, such as the rumoured Labour candidate for Worcester 'Amon Gus'.

Lol.
Sounds like a really funny prank.
An imposter of a potential Labour candidate...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Is it possible that all this will result in changes to laws involving the potential recall of MPs?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What is the last time a constituency with Selby & Ainsty's borders would have gone Labour? 1997?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Sounds as if each party is going to win 1 seat tonight. Ulez saving the tories in Uxbridge

It's possible. Only time will tell, though.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

A Keir win benefiting Keir.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Bloody hell. What a result. I was vaguely expecting a Labour win, but not by this much.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What % of the electorate in Rochdale is likely to be Muslim?