UK By-elections thread, 2021-
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #325 on: May 13, 2021, 07:48:26 PM »



SNP hold A&S as expected. Tactical unionist voting does however now appear to be a normal thing to plan for in Scottish politics.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #326 on: May 13, 2021, 09:03:18 PM »

Nothing really surprising although Labour didn't do that bad although this is a seat they need to win if they want to win back Scotland, but did narrowly outperform 2017.  However, I've found Scotland often swings in opposite direction of England and as mentioned above lots of unionist tactical voting.
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beesley
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« Reply #327 on: May 14, 2021, 02:29:44 AM »

There's a non-zero chance of Labour losing their deposit in this by-election.  Would this be seen as "Labour in disarray" or would it not be all that big a deal?  When last did one of the two big parties lose a deposit at a Westminster seat?

If the race is viewed as a Tory-Lib Dem contest then it wouldn't be that surprising. Labour lost their deposit at the Richmond Park by-election and I think almost did in Bromley and Chislehurst where they came fourth.
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YL
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« Reply #328 on: May 14, 2021, 02:34:41 AM »

There's a non-zero chance of Labour losing their deposit in this by-election.  Would this be seen as "Labour in disarray" or would it not be all that big a deal?  When last did one of the two big parties lose a deposit at a Westminster seat?

If the race is viewed as a Tory-Lib Dem contest then it wouldn't be that surprising. Labour lost their deposit at the Richmond Park by-election and I think almost did in Bromley and Chislehurst where they came fourth.

At this point I would be surprised if Labour didn't lose their deposit, and would think it reflected badly on the Lib Dem campaign.
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Blair
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« Reply #329 on: May 14, 2021, 02:45:44 AM »

Compare the coverage of this with Hartlepool... it actually seems smart that Lab were pulling people out of the West Midlands to go here.
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afleitch
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« Reply #330 on: May 14, 2021, 04:12:08 AM »

One note on tactical voting in Scotland.

Labour voters who voted Tory in recent cycles reverting to type isn't technically tactical voting. It's wrong to assume it's 'Tories tactically voting Labour'. They weren't Tories

There is also a fun realignment between voting patterns in Airdie and Coatbridge.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #331 on: May 14, 2021, 07:11:22 AM »

Nothing really surprising although Labour didn't do that bad although this is a seat they need to win if they want to win back Scotland, but did narrowly outperform 2017.  However, I've found Scotland often swings in opposite direction of England and as mentioned above lots of unionist tactical voting.

I don't think this is actually that common (though the 2010 GE was one occasion when it did happen)
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mileslunn
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« Reply #332 on: May 14, 2021, 02:39:27 PM »

Nothing really surprising although Labour didn't do that bad although this is a seat they need to win if they want to win back Scotland, but did narrowly outperform 2017.  However, I've found Scotland often swings in opposite direction of England and as mentioned above lots of unionist tactical voting.

I don't think this is actually that common (though the 2010 GE was one occasion when it did happen)

Also in 2015 with respect to Tories who dropped in Scotland rose in England.  Again in 2017 too as Tories gained seats in Scotland lost in England and in fact had May not gained the seats she did in Scotland, she would have lost power altogether as Tories + DUP wouldn't have a majority and would have to turn to Liberal Democrats who I doubt wanted to go into another coalition with Tories.  Probably a short lived Labour government with an agreement to have another Brexit referendum followed by election as doubt LibDems would have supported Corbyn.  Happened again in 2019 as Tories gained seats in England but lost them in Scotland.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #333 on: May 15, 2021, 08:51:59 AM »

There's a non-zero chance of Labour losing their deposit in this by-election.  Would this be seen as "Labour in disarray" or would it not be all that big a deal?  When last did one of the two big parties lose a deposit at a Westminster seat?

If the race is viewed as a Tory-Lib Dem contest then it wouldn't be that surprising. Labour lost their deposit at the Richmond Park by-election and I think almost did in Bromley and Chislehurst where they came fourth.

At this point I would be surprised if Labour didn't lose their deposit, and would think it reflected badly on the Lib Dem campaign.

LibDems surely need the Greens to also lose theirs to have any chance.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #334 on: May 15, 2021, 09:33:04 AM »

There's a non-zero chance of Labour losing their deposit in this by-election.  Would this be seen as "Labour in disarray" or would it not be all that big a deal?  When last did one of the two big parties lose a deposit at a Westminster seat?

If the race is viewed as a Tory-Lib Dem contest then it wouldn't be that surprising. Labour lost their deposit at the Richmond Park by-election and I think almost did in Bromley and Chislehurst where they came fourth.

At this point I would be surprised if Labour didn't lose their deposit, and would think it reflected badly on the Lib Dem campaign.

LibDems surely need the Greens to also lose theirs to have any chance.

The Greens losing their deposit wouldn't be terribly surprising. They only got 5.5% in 2019 in C&A and have lost their deposits at most recent elections (2001, 2005, 2010, 2017; kept it in 2015 and 2019).

Personally I think Labour and the Greens will both lose their deposits but the Lib Dems still won't win, though they might break 40% and get the margin to mid-single digits.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #335 on: May 15, 2021, 10:04:30 AM »

No it wouldn't be surprising as such, but Greens are briefing they plan to campaign hard in this one.
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #336 on: May 17, 2021, 05:20:24 AM »

Chesham and Amersham will be on June 17.
https://www.buckinghamshire.gov.uk/your-council/council-and-democracy/election-and-voting/election-timetable-and-notices/
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Pericles
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« Reply #337 on: May 17, 2021, 05:22:51 AM »


Very close to June 21, why didn't the Tories just have it after they have eliminated all social distancing restrictions?
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Cassius
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« Reply #338 on: May 17, 2021, 08:59:26 AM »


Very close to June 21, why didn't the Tories just have it after they have eliminated all social distancing restrictions?

We don’t know for sure that they will lift all the restrictions on June 21st, but even if they do, perhaps it’s better for them to have the anticipation of freedom in the voters minds (whereas I suspect if they have it after people will quickly forget about it).
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Conservatopia
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« Reply #339 on: May 17, 2021, 11:24:32 AM »


Very close to June 21, why didn't the Tories just have it after they have eliminated all social distancing restrictions?

We don’t know for sure that they will lift all the restrictions on June 21st, but even if they do, perhaps it’s better for them to have the anticipation of freedom in the voters minds (whereas I suspect if they have it after people will quickly forget about it).

I mean ultimately it probably makes very little difference to the result either way and gets the seat filled quicker.

I'm not sure I like our candidate though.
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YL
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« Reply #340 on: May 18, 2021, 01:58:14 AM »

Labour have selected a candidate, thereby annoying various "progressive alliance" people on Twitter.  She's a Slough councillor (Cippenham Meadows ward) and cabinet member, Natasa Pantelic.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #341 on: May 18, 2021, 02:06:16 AM »


Very close to June 21, why didn't the Tories just have it after they have eliminated all social distancing restrictions?

We don’t know for sure that they will lift all the restrictions on June 21st, but even if they do, perhaps it’s better for them to have the anticipation of freedom in the voters minds (whereas I suspect if they have it after people will quickly forget about it).

I mean ultimately it probably makes very little difference to the result either way and gets the seat filled quicker.

I'm not sure I like our candidate though.
Yeah, it's not like there is much at stake here in regards to when the date is. It should be very safe Con and anything else would be caused not by the date but rather by more relevant factors.
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Geoffrey Howe
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« Reply #342 on: May 18, 2021, 04:14:47 AM »

I think we can agree the Tories losing this would be bigger (much) than Labour losing Hartlepool.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #343 on: May 18, 2021, 06:53:00 AM »

Labour have selected a candidate, thereby annoying various "progressive alliance" people on Twitter.  She's a Slough councillor (Cippenham Meadows ward) and cabinet member, Natasa Pantelic.

Did they miss the Greens announcing they would stand a candidate?
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Cassius
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« Reply #344 on: May 18, 2021, 09:30:40 AM »


Very close to June 21, why didn't the Tories just have it after they have eliminated all social distancing restrictions?

We don’t know for sure that they will lift all the restrictions on June 21st, but even if they do, perhaps it’s better for them to have the anticipation of freedom in the voters minds (whereas I suspect if they have it after people will quickly forget about it).

I mean ultimately it probably makes very little difference to the result either way and gets the seat filled quicker.

I'm not sure I like our candidate though.

What’s the issue with him? Seems like a reasonably decent bloke from the articles I’ve read.
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beesley
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« Reply #345 on: May 18, 2021, 11:42:22 AM »


Very close to June 21, why didn't the Tories just have it after they have eliminated all social distancing restrictions?

We don’t know for sure that they will lift all the restrictions on June 21st, but even if they do, perhaps it’s better for them to have the anticipation of freedom in the voters minds (whereas I suspect if they have it after people will quickly forget about it).

I mean ultimately it probably makes very little difference to the result either way and gets the seat filled quicker.

I'm not sure I like our candidate though.

What’s the issue with him? Seems like a reasonably decent bloke from the articles I’ve read.

He does appear to live in the constituency, unlike Jill Mortimer. To the extent that there was a 'leadership's preferred candidate', he was least it.
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Conservatopia
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« Reply #346 on: May 18, 2021, 12:03:30 PM »


Very close to June 21, why didn't the Tories just have it after they have eliminated all social distancing restrictions?

We don’t know for sure that they will lift all the restrictions on June 21st, but even if they do, perhaps it’s better for them to have the anticipation of freedom in the voters minds (whereas I suspect if they have it after people will quickly forget about it).

I mean ultimately it probably makes very little difference to the result either way and gets the seat filled quicker.

I'm not sure I like our candidate though.

What’s the issue with him? Seems like a reasonably decent bloke from the articles I’ve read.

I dunno I guess I just wanted Nikki Da Costa Smiley

He seems a bit China friendly from his credentials too.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #347 on: May 20, 2021, 05:43:58 AM »

Some online chatter that an "interesting" poll for Chesham & Amersham could be in the offing.
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YL
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« Reply #348 on: May 20, 2021, 11:01:21 AM »
« Edited: May 20, 2021, 11:17:34 AM by YL »

Eight candidates for Chesham & Amersham

Carolyne Culver (Green)
Brendan Donnelly (Rejoin EU) [1]
Peter Fleet (Con)
Sarah Green (Lib Dem)
Carla Gregory (Breakthrough Party) [2]
Adrian Oliver (Freedom Alliance) [3]
Natasa Pantelic (Lab)
Alex Wilson (Reform UK)

[1] Donnelly was elected as a Conservative MEP in 1994.  He resigned from the party and was a co-founder of the short lived Pro Euro Conservative Party.  He was briefly in the Lib Dems, but stood in the 2009 and 2014 European elections in London under the labels "Yes2Europe" and "4 Freedoms Party" respectively, and in the recent London election for Rejoin UK.

[2] Small left-wing outfit, described on their Twitter page as a "youth-led democratic socialist party".

[3] Anti lockdown party who stood in various places in the local elections without much impact that I'm aware of.
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beesley
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« Reply #349 on: May 20, 2021, 11:28:23 AM »

Eight candidates for Chesham & Amersham

Carla Gregory (Breakthrough Party) [2]

[2] Small left-wing outfit, described on their Twitter page as a "youth-led democratic socialist party".




Think that tells you all you need to know.
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