UK By-elections thread, 2021-
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Author Topic: UK By-elections thread, 2021-  (Read 170078 times)
DL
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« Reply #550 on: July 01, 2021, 02:41:05 PM »

FWIW there seems to be a big surge in people betting on a Labour win all of a sudden.
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It's Perro Sanxe wot won it
Mimoha
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« Reply #551 on: July 01, 2021, 02:53:03 PM »

Around what time can we expect a declaration?
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beesley
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« Reply #552 on: July 01, 2021, 02:57:19 PM »

Around what time can we expect a declaration?

Tomorrow, around 4-5am GMT according to the Manchester Evening News.
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It's Perro Sanxe wot won it
Mimoha
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« Reply #553 on: July 01, 2021, 03:28:38 PM »
« Edited: July 01, 2021, 03:33:35 PM by Tigrekán II of Mongolia »

As a fun fact, if Labour manage to lose Batley and Spen, this would be the first Parliament in a hundred years to witness not one but two government gains in contested by-elections over the course of its term.

Technically, it would be just fifty, since the Tories gained Bristol South East in 1961 after gaining Brighouse and Spenborough in 1960; but the thing is, the Conservative candidate only became an MP in the former because Viscount Stansgase (aka Tony Benn) was disqualified from holding the seat after comfortably winning it. This was due to his peerage, which he had just inherited from his father and triggered the by-election in the first place.
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #554 on: July 01, 2021, 03:36:55 PM »

FWIW there seems to be a big surge in people betting on a Labour win all of a sudden.

That's probably mostly a matter of betting value (the odds have clearly been too lopsided).
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #555 on: July 01, 2021, 04:59:18 PM »



Sounds like some at the count is getting high off their own stash, but I guess we will see.
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rc18
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« Reply #556 on: July 01, 2021, 05:31:00 PM »



Sounds like some at the count is getting high off their own stash, but I guess we will see.

Really unlikely in a seat like this.  I've seen it suggested this is a reference to postal vote returns, which makes more sense. That would not be remarkable, lower than at the GE.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #557 on: July 01, 2021, 05:59:25 PM »

Gonna go bold and say Galloway loses his deposit. But that’s mostly to be contrarian/hopeful. Tbh, I see a narrow Tory victory. Sources: my left and right cheeks.
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S019
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« Reply #558 on: July 01, 2021, 06:52:39 PM »

I'll say Labour wins narrowly
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Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins
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« Reply #559 on: July 01, 2021, 07:46:00 PM »

I'll say Tories win. Labour + Galloway is not greater than Tories.

Order is:

1. Tories
2. labour
3. Galloway
4. Lib Dems
5. Yorkshire Party
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Mike88
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« Reply #560 on: July 01, 2021, 07:48:41 PM »

Turnout is at 47.6%. From Sky News.
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Secretary of State Liberal Hack
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« Reply #561 on: July 01, 2021, 08:28:35 PM »

anyone got a good livestream ?
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #562 on: July 01, 2021, 08:31:42 PM »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i5WePSaHROs
I found this via Youtube search. It might or might not suit your purposes.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #563 on: July 01, 2021, 08:32:19 PM »


Sky apparently is holding doing some stuff according to the twitters, but its just 1 seat. I guess as a tory-leaning outlet they assume a flip and therefore potential Labour leadership infighting, so there is a point to it.
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Secretary of State Liberal Hack
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« Reply #564 on: July 01, 2021, 08:35:21 PM »


Is this credible ?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #565 on: July 01, 2021, 08:38:01 PM »


Is this credible ?

I wouldn't even trust Galloway with a penny, so take anything coming from his camp with a grain of salt like any other rumors. More relevant would be pictures from anyone at the count of the physical ballots getting stacked on tables. That told us who would win well ahead of the declaration in Hartlepool. Said images would confirm any potential spin.
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Continential
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« Reply #566 on: July 01, 2021, 08:49:16 PM »

Galloway isn't at the count.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #567 on: July 01, 2021, 09:00:00 PM »


He's picking fights with the British version of #Electiontwitter right now, in case you want a better glimpse of how his team expects the results to play out.
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Continential
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« Reply #568 on: July 01, 2021, 09:52:30 PM »

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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #569 on: July 01, 2021, 10:18:02 PM »





We got images of the ballots. Leadbreaker's (right) pile looks even, maybe a bit smaller than the Tory's in the middle, maybe a bit shorter in stack one. Perspective is deceptive. Another view:






Declaration expected in 20ish minutes.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #570 on: July 01, 2021, 10:21:27 PM »

If it's very, very tight then while you might be able to tell if you were there in person, it would be next to impossible from television footage.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #571 on: July 01, 2021, 10:45:46 PM »

Bundle recount ordered. Probable means a 400-600 majority. Apparently requested by the Tories.

Galloway finally showed up.
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thumb21
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« Reply #572 on: July 01, 2021, 10:47:44 PM »

Bundle recount ordered. Probable means a 400-600 majority.

Apparently requested by the Tories.
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YE
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« Reply #573 on: July 01, 2021, 10:49:12 PM »

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Secretary of State Liberal Hack
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« Reply #574 on: July 01, 2021, 10:50:40 PM »

Should gone with my gut and placed the bet, only question now is if Galloway looses his deposit.
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