2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

According to this tweet, the GCB from Marist is D+17, but I though Marist already released one like three days ago.
https://twitter.com/edwardthardy/status/1040260061086408705?s=21

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://dccc.org/640854-2/

IA-3 DCCC internal: Axne (D) 46, Young (R-inc) 43

Which poll gave Young a larger lead than King last week? lmao

Anyways, this poll shows Axne winning 22% of Republicans #WalkAway

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

This race isn't getting triaged. These polls are great for the GOP to be only down 3 in a Dem internal.

LMAO down 3 points, GCB in the district is D+10, Axne winning 22% of Republicans. Young would be lucky to lose by less than 10 points at this point.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Fun Fact: Young Kim literally doesn't believe people are born gay and still opposes same-sex marriage.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Fun Fact: Young Kim literally doesn't believe people are born gay and still opposes same-sex marriage.

News flash: infants do not come out of the womb with sexual desires or preferences. No one has ever been "born gay."

Your entire statement is psychologically and scientifically false. Newsflash: Even the Catholic Church acknowledges it's not a choice and people are born that way. Get your head out of your ass.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

PPP poll: MN-02 - Craig (D) 48% Lewis (R-inc) 45%

Why does Craig have a -9 favorable rating?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

How is the GOP doing this well? In 2012, there were several Republicans who made rape comments and got destroyed in the polls (deservedly so). The whole Kavanaugh controversy is like that 10 times over, yet they're still doing as well as they are?

They aren't really doing that well... lol. Plus, we are in an extreme partisan age right now.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Michigan Generic Ballot-

Democrats: 53%
Republicans: 40%

Source: Mitchell Research & Communications

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Morning Consult had the GCB in Pennsylvania at +9 in their last poll (April) so this is an improvement for the Dems.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Fox News-

43% of voters say a candidate being supported by Barack Obama is more likely to get their support compared to 33% who say otherwise.

It's 29/44% less likely with Trump, and 27/39% less likely with Pence.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

PPP Polls-

TX-07-

Fletcher (D): 47%
Culberson (R): 45%

TX-32-

Allred (D): 47%
Sessions (R): 42%

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1044307111872778240

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

TX-31 (Hegar Internal)

Carter (R): 46%
Hegar (D): 42%

Last poll done by Hegar in July had her trailing 39-48%

https://twitter.com/hellofasandwich/status/1044303317336186881

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Monmouth has a VA-07 poll coming out tomorrow btw.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Monmouth has a VA-07 poll coming out tomorrow btw.

I’m going to guess Brat +5

I'm not sure. Stewart could really drag him down.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

KY-06 Pulse Research-

Barr (R): 47%
McGrath (D): 47%

https://www.termlimits.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/KentuckyTermLimitsPollResults2018.pdf

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

WOAH

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Generic Ballot Florida-

Democrats: 49%
Republicans: 43%

Democrats had a 3-point lead last Marist poll in the state.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

USC/LA Times, Aug 22-Sep 24, 4161 registered voters including 2151 likely voters

Story at http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-usc-latimes-poll-20180926-story.html#, toplines will be posted later this morning.

Among likely voters: D 55, R 41

Many details in the story, including:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Blacks support Dems 94-4%. But Candace and Kanye told me that there was a major black exodus from the DEMONcrats...

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Whew. That white college grad margin...

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

How is it possible for Pew's poll to have Democrats up 58 - 39 with white college grads, but then only 57 - 38 with college graduates of all races? Non-white college grads are significantly more Democratic than white college grads, even if they are slightly less Democratic than non-white non-college voters.

Shouldn't the total college grads (white/non-white) be > white college grad %?

White college grads also includes postgrads, whereas the regular college grad excludes postgrads (that is another category in that crosstab).

That would explain it. Postgrads are quite a Democratic group, and have been for a while. Does anyone know why postgrads have always been significantly more Democratic than "normal" college educated folks (like those with bachelor degrees)?

Quick facetious one-liner answer - because they are smarter than regular college grads

Real answer - because the same factors that make college-educated voters more likely to be Democratic also make them more likely to be Democratic, such as being more likely than 4 year college grads to have jobs as "knowledge-worker professionals" which is associated with voting Dem.

Meanwhile those who use their degree to become productive members of society (e.g. businessmen, chemical engineers, CPAs, etc.) tend to vote GOP.

Productive members of society (by your standards) also include: scientists, professors, teachers, engineers, lawyers, writers, astrophysicists, etc. these tend to vote Democrat.

What is your point?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Generic Ballot Pennsylvania-

Democrats: 51%
Republicans: 36%

https://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/84925965295991296-f-m-poll-release-september-2018.pdf

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

MI GCB: D+8 (49-41)

https://media.woodtv.com/nxs-woodtv-media-us-east-1/document_dev/2018/09/26/epic-mra-september-2018-poll_1538003491349_56985396_ver1.0.pdf

I thought I saw it saying 52-40% Dem in the article?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Change Research, Sep. 27-28, 741 RV.  I can't find a prior from this pollster for comparison.

D 48
R 40

When undecided voters are pushed, it's 49/41.

Many detailed questions about Kavanaugh and the hearing in this poll for those who are interested.

Lots of bad news for the GOP in there. People believe the Democrats handled the hearings better than the Republicans and they believe Ford over Kavanaugh.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Oh great. Here come the hot takes. D+7 is in line with the last six polls on 538 showing a 7-9 point advantage for the Democrats.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The "tightening" basically means that if the election were held today, Democrats might *only* gain about 30 seats, rather than 35-40. It's sickening how the Kavanaugh situation is somehow helping Republicans more, but that's the world we live in.

The polls aren’t showing any Kavanaugh effect on either side. QPac’s poll two days ago showed that the GOP got far worse marks than the Dems from Americans on the entire ordeal. Chill out.