2020 Montana Statewide Elections Megathread

[Heir of Camelot]

The other reason I think Tom Winter is screwed (and I voted for him) is he went against the MDP and went rogue in his decision to run for Congress. A lot of people worked their ass off to help him flip his seat in the Montana State House and then felt betrayed when he jumped so quickly after a single term. He's only 32 so it came across as being impulsive and hasty. His seat will most likely flip back to Republicans this cycle.

I know from a reliable source that the head of MDLCC absolutely unloaded on him when he informed them he was bailing. So he doesn't really have the support of the State Party anymore. They have ways of tanking your candidacy when you lose their support. Whisper campaigns etc. He also mispronounces Montana which is a cardinal sin here and definitely cost Maryland Matt in his race.

I honestly think he'd have a better shot running for Congress in his native Missouri. Most of his campaign fundraising came form there.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I've had some dealing with her staff and they are extremely pretentious and "high on their own farts" and the only thing they do particularly well is fundraise. Their ads are lame, she has a small mousey voice, and she dresses like a hobo. She refuses to throw any punches ever, and doesn't have a clue how to fire up the troops. That's not going to get it done.

I don't know why but I had a good laugh with that.

Yeah check this pic out. .

https://www.facebook.com/WilliamsForMontana/photos/a.423439012260/379283782260/?type=3&theater

At least the background is gorgeous. There is a reason why I had a Montana avatar when I first came here.

[😥]

MT Treasurer and Heir of Camelot,

What is your ratings on Montana down-ballot races? I'm especially interested to see AG race

[Heir of Camelot]

AG is an interesting race. Typically it's lean or likely R but Graybill is kind of the golden boy. He was Bullock's chief legal counsel, he's from Great Falls, which is key. If he can tap into some of that Bullock magic he can win. He has a nice family, he's handsome and he's a Montana native so he definitely has a shot. I would say Tossup best case but more likely Tilt R.

[Heir of Camelot]

Shane Morigeau has a shot to win State Auditor too since he's running against Crazy California Troy Downing.

[Orwell]

Shane Morigeau has a shot to win State Auditor too since he's running against Crazy California Troy Downing.

What is with insulting people in your state on not being from Montana

Maryland Mat
California Troy Downing
New Jersey Greg

[Heir of Camelot]

There is a strong nativist streak here. There is a trope in Montana about rich out of staters moving in and buying huge ranches and then denying public access to the rivers and streams (cough* Greg Gianforte) and then running for office  and blowing their opponents away with their money advantages (Greg again).

It's created a certain resentment among people who were born and raised here and had to develop a strong sense of community and rugged resourcefulness to survive.

[KaiserDave]

There is a strong nativist streak here. There is a trope in Montana about rich out of staters moving in and buying huge ranches and then denying public access to the rivers and streams (cough* Greg Gianforte) and then running for office  and blowing their opponents away with their money advantages (Greg again).

It's created a certain resentment among people who were born and raised here and had to develop a strong sense of community and rugged resourcefulness to survive.

As a fly fisherman I am offended by NJ Greg's activities in the first paragraph there.

Let's go Montana Mike against New Jersey Greg!

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Shane Morigeau has a shot to win State Auditor too since he's running against Crazy California Troy Downing.

What is with insulting people in your state on not being from Montana

Maryland Mat
California Troy Downing
New Jersey Greg

It's the #populist thing to do.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Shane Morigeau has a shot to win State Auditor too since he's running against Crazy California Troy Downing.

What is with insulting people in your state on not being from Montana

Maryland Matt
California Troy Downing
New Jersey Greg

It's the #populist thing to do.

This, but there's a special place in my heart for Multimillionaire Maryland Matt. It rolls off the tongue better than "New Jersey Greg" ("Jersey Greg" is enough), and even more so than the stilted "California Troy Downing".

[Epaminondas]

Shane Morigeau has a shot to win State Auditor too since he's running against Crazy California Troy Downing.

What is with insulting people in your state on not being from Montana

Maryland Mat
California Troy Downing
New Jersey Greg

Just turning the Trump playbook on the GOP.

[Skunk]

He also mispronounces Montana which is a cardinal sin here and definitely cost Maryland Matt in his race.

Wait, how do you mispronounce Montana? I watched one of his ads and it seemed normal to me, though I'm assuming it's pronounced differently in a Montanan accent.

[Heir of Camelot]

Montanans pronounce it Mon-TAN-a, (as in I just got a tan)
Maryland Matt (or my new favorite nickname, Rosenfail) pronounces it Mon-TAWN-a (like tawny)
Tom Winter (form Missouri) pronounces it Mon-TAE-na (like table)

These things matter more than you would guess. Montanans have their own unique accent as well that is most noticeable on words like bag (Bayg) and dragon (Dre-gon). We kind of drag the a sound.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Montana is a place I guess "all politics is local" still lives on to this day.

[Heir of Camelot]

Very much so. That's how Democrats are able to win here. The mantra on campaigns is "don't nationalize your race."

[Mr. Smith]

Very much so. That's how Democrats are able to win here. The mantra on campaigns is "don't nationalize your race."

Didn't help Quist.

[Heir of Camelot]

Quist had other problems. He allowed his opponent and the RNC and affiliate groups, with an assist from the Billings Gazette's Tom Lutey to define him negatively in voters minds before he had a chance to make his own case. Not being a career politician hurt him. Also Gianforte's body slam happened after most of the vote had already been cast so it's effect was minimal (amplified by Sinclair Broadcasting, which own most MT affiliates, refusal to even air it).

He hit all the benchmarks for victory but losing by 20 Points in Yellowstone (where Montana's largest city Billings is located) was an absolute killer. He actually won his hometown of Kalispell (the in town precincts) which is somewhat mind boggling. He did very solidly in Ravalli as well (Hamilton). Both of those are traditionally beet red.

[KaiserDave]

Is Schweitzer’s career over for good?

[KaiserDave]

Quist had other problems. He allowed his opponent and the RNC and affiliate groups, with an assist from the Billings Gazette's Tom Lutey to define him negatively in voters minds before he had a chance to make his own case. Not being a career politician hurt him. Also Gianforte's body slam happened after most of the vote had already been cast so it's effect was minimal (amplified by Sinclair Broadcasting, which own most MT affiliates, refusal to even air it).

He hit all the benchmarks for victory but losing by 20 Points in Yellowstone (where Montana's largest city Billings is located) was an absolute killer. He actually won his hometown of Kalispell (the in town precincts) which is somewhat mind boggling. He did very solidly in Ravalli as well (Hamilton). Both of those are traditionally beet red.

Is Rob’s statewide career over?

[MT Treasurer]

IndyRep, how would you rate all these races?

I will post my #analysis and maps condensed in one post and/or the first page when I have more time, but for now:

(Rating before the primary -> Rating after the primary)

Statewide offices:

GOV: Pure Tossup -> Pure Tossup
AG: Likely R -> Tilt/Lean R
SoS: Lean R -> Likely R
Auditor: Likely R -> Lean/Likely R
Superintendent: Lean R -> Lean/Likely R

I think the big story in those (non-federal) races will be the decline in split-ticket voting when compared to the past, but if I had to rank them from most to least winnable for Democrats, it would be GOV > AG > Auditor > Superintendent > SoS. IMO, Republicans benefited most in the Secretary of State's race (which I’d consider the most likely R hold of all the state + federal offices), while Democrats' chances improved most in the Attorney General's race.

Federal races:

MT-PRES: Safe R -> Likely/Safe R
MT-SEN: Tossup/Tilt D -> Tossup/Tilt D
MT-AL: Likely R -> Lean R

I know a lot of people will disagree with me re: Gianforte > Daines, and this is certainly very debatable.

[Heir of Camelot]

Is Schweitzer's career over for good?

Yes. I asked him and his response was, "I did my 8 years."

Is Rob Quist's statewide career over for good?

Yes. He's enjoying his grandson and mostly retired from music as well as he is currently in his 70's. However, Rob Quist's son Guthrie Quist (who worked on his campaign) is currently running in the state's buzziest State Senate race in District 03. He's going against the patriarch of the local Regier Dynasty. Tester actually flipped that district 2 years ago so if Guthrie can get elected he will be one to watch. The MDLCC has targeted that race. It has a lot of people very intrigued here locally.

[Heir of Camelot]

IndyRep, how would you rate all these races?

I will post my #analysis and maps condensed in one post and/or the first page when I have more time, but for now:

(Rating before the primary -> Rating after the primary)

Statewide offices:

GOV: Pure Tossup -> Pure Tossup
AG: Likely R -> Tilt/Lean R
SoS: Lean R -> Likely R
Auditor: Likely R -> Lean/Likely R
Superintendent: Lean R -> Lean/Likely R

I think the big story in those (non-federal) races will be the decline in split-ticket voting when compared to the past, but if I had to rank them from most to least winnable for Democrats, it would be GOV > AG > Auditor > Superintendent > SoS. IMO, Republicans benefited most in the Secretary of State's race (which I’d consider the most likely R hold of all the state + federal offices), while Democrats' chances improved most in the Attorney General's race.

Federal races:

MT-PRES: Safe R -> Likely/Safe R
MT-SEN: Tossup/Tilt D -> Tossup/Tilt D
MT-AL: Likely R -> Lean R

I know a lot of people will disagree with me re: Gianforte > Daines, and this is certainly very debatable.

I tend to agree that Gianforte is more formidable than Daines. His vast fortune and ability to write himself a check any time he needs to should not be underestimated.

So you're not high on Bryce Bennett in the SOS race then I take it?

[KaiserDave]

Is Schweitzer's career over for good?

Yes. I asked him and his response was, "I did my 8 years."

Is Rob Quist's statewide career over for good?

Yes. He's enjoying his grandson and mostly retired from music as well as he is currently in his 70's. However, Rob Quist's son Guthrie Quist (who worked on his campaign) is currently running in the state's buzziest State Senate race in District 03. He's going against the patriarch of the local Regier Dynasty. Tester actually flipped that district 2 years ago so if Guthrie can get elected he will be one to watch. The MDLCC has targeted that race. It has a lot of people very intrigued here locally.

That's unfortunate. Schweitzer is a solid candidate, and him not running in 2014 was a loss.

Hypothetically if he had ran for Senate this year would he be doing well against Daines?

[Orwell]

IndyRep, how would you rate all these races?

I will post my #analysis and maps condensed in one post and/or the first page when I have more time, but for now:

(Rating before the primary -> Rating after the primary)

Statewide offices:

GOV: Pure Tossup -> Pure Tossup
AG: Likely R -> Tilt/Lean R
SoS: Lean R -> Likely R
Auditor: Likely R -> Lean/Likely R
Superintendent: Lean R -> Lean/Likely R

I think the big story in those (non-federal) races will be the decline in split-ticket voting when compared to the past, but if I had to rank them from most to least winnable for Democrats, it would be GOV > AG > Auditor > Superintendent > SoS. IMO, Republicans benefited most in the Secretary of State's race (which I’d consider the most likely R hold of all the state + federal offices), while Democrats' chances improved most in the Attorney General's race.

Federal races:

MT-PRES: Safe R -> Likely/Safe R
MT-SEN: Tossup/Tilt D -> Tossup/Tilt D
MT-AL: Likely R -> Lean R

I know a lot of people will disagree with me re: Gianforte > Daines, and this is certainly very debatable.

I tend to agree that Gianforte is more formidable than Daines. His vast fortune and ability to write himself a check any time he needs to should not be underestimated.

So you're not high on Bryce Bennett in the SOS race then I take it?

As a non-Montana watcher, I am big fan of the AG candidate I just feel that he is a likable guy in my gut.  Hopefully he has a good career statewide and maybe even hold the Senate seat in 2024, or the Governors mansion in 2028.

[Heir of Camelot]

IndyRep, how would you rate all these races?

I will post my #analysis and maps condensed in one post and/or the first page when I have more time, but for now:

(Rating before the primary -> Rating after the primary)

Statewide offices:

GOV: Pure Tossup -> Pure Tossup
AG: Likely R -> Tilt/Lean R
SoS: Lean R -> Likely R
Auditor: Likely R -> Lean/Likely R
Superintendent: Lean R -> Lean/Likely R

I think the big story in those (non-federal) races will be the decline in split-ticket voting when compared to the past, but if I had to rank them from most to least winnable for Democrats, it would be GOV > AG > Auditor > Superintendent > SoS. IMO, Republicans benefited most in the Secretary of State's race (which I’d consider the most likely R hold of all the state + federal offices), while Democrats' chances improved most in the Attorney General's race.

Federal races:

MT-PRES: Safe R -> Likely/Safe R
MT-SEN: Tossup/Tilt D -> Tossup/Tilt D
MT-AL: Likely R -> Lean R

I know a lot of people will disagree with me re: Gianforte > Daines, and this is certainly very debatable.

I tend to agree that Gianforte is more formidable than Daines. His vast fortune and ability to write himself a check any time he needs to should not be underestimated.

So you're not high on Bryce Bennett in the SOS race then I take it?

As a non-Montana watcher, I am big fan of the AG candidate I just feel that he is a likable guy in my gut.  Hopefully he has a good career statewide and maybe even hold the Senate seat in 2024, or the Governors mansion in 2028.

That's definitely the hype around Raph Graybill but I'm not so sure. He's SUPER young. He's barely 30 and looks 19. His whole campaign so far has been based off "I'm the next Bullock" to the point that it's almost kind of obnoxious. He has him and Bullock posing together in the EXACT same outfit all the way down to the shoes and belt and it comes across kind of like "take your kid to work day." Missoula has been slow to embrace him, they went hard for Dudik.

On the other hand I've heard he's very smart. He has a nice family. He's from Great Falls. I think he has a bright future but I don't picture him winning statewide until his forties. Tester will run for the Senate one more time (he's already campaigning). So 2030 is the earliest that seat will open up. I could picture him running for Gov in 2028 in he wins AG but he'd still be only 38 (and look 25 lol). I think 2036 is more his window unless he's the next Bill Clinton. He'd be a still young 46 in '36.