2020 Montana Statewide Elections Megathread

[KaiserDave]

Calling it, Cooney wins.

#Populists rejoice

[MT Treasurer]

MT-SoS is really close right now.

Christi Jacobsen 37,824   30%
Scott Sales   31,929   26%
Brad Johnson    29,311   23%

The only reason Sales just surged is because nearly all of his base area (Bozeman and some outskirts/rural areas he represented in the State Senate) came in, but most of that is now already in and he’s underperforming in several other key counties. It’s going to be close, but still 1. Jacobsen 2. Johnson 3. Sales if I had to guess.

[KaiserDave]

NYT has Cooney winning. This will be an exciting race.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Great news!

Always glad to see the Incompetency Caucus lose.

[Xing]

Cooney and New Jersey Greg win? Safe R -> Likely D (not safe ONLY bcuz polarization), though Daines is of course extremely safe.

[MT Treasurer]

Yikes, in the AG race, Bennion even lost Jefferson County (where he lives) by five points. He probably did win Clancy, though.

A pretty humiliating result.

[Bidenworth2020]

Sorry if this isn't the right topic, but I am kind of shocked by how well Biden is doing in MT right now. Obviously Bernie dropped out, but it appears to be one of his better states tonight.

[MT Treasurer]

Cooney and New Jersey Greg win? Safe R -> Likely D (not safe ONLY bcuz polarization), though Daines is of course extremely safe.

Auditor should also be moved from Safe R to Likely D because loony California Troy will face Montana native Shane Morigeau. I guess Troy's only hope lies in piteously imploring Daines to cut an ad for him and hold a few rallies where Daines officially endorses him.

Sorry if this isn't the right topic, but I am kind of shocked by how well Biden is doing in MT right now. Obviously Bernie dropped out, but it appears to be one of his better states tonight.

So am I, actually. I did expect a Biden blowout (obviously) but the margin is somewhat surprising. Then again, it’s hard to overstate how awful a candidate Clinton was for this state.

E: I’m more shocked by how well Kathleen Williams is doing. I mean, Tom Winter never had the resources to compete, but geez...

[MT Treasurer]

I think Secretary of State (R) can be called for Jacobsen at this point, so that pretty much wraps it up.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

@MT Treasurer:

Why is the result of the AG primaries a best case scenario for Dems? Did Republicans choose their weakest, coastal elitist here?

[Heir of Camelot]

Tom Winter raised a respectable 800K. He just got curb stomped.

I think he got into the habit of posting on Social Media and the echo chamber making him think he was doing better than he was. You have to go out and campaign (which was obviously screwed up by the pandemic). A lot of the older voters who vote in primaries aren't even on Facebook and Twitter. He  didn't do yard signs either, no mailings, no ads. WTF did he spend his money on?

[KaiserDave]

Tom Winter raised a respectable 800K. He just got curb stomped.

I think he got into the habit of posting on Social Media and the echo chamber making him think he was doing better than he was. You have to go out and campaign (which was obviously screwed up by the pandemic). A lot of the older voters who vote in primaries aren't even on Facebook and Twitter. He  didn't do yard signs either, no mailings, no ads. WTF did he spend his money on?

It seems he forgot the core populist principles of retail politics. :/

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Tom Winter raised a respectable 800K. He just got curb stomped.

I think he got into the habit of posting on Social Media and the echo chamber making him think he was doing better than he was. You have to go out and campaign (which was obviously screwed up by the pandemic). A lot of the older voters who vote in primaries aren't even on Facebook and Twitter. He  didn't do yard signs either, no mailings, no ads. WTF did he spend his money on?

It seems he forgot the core populist principles of retail politics. :/

It almost certainly couldn't have saved Winter given the margin by which he ultimately lost, but traditional retail politics has been harder for pretty much everyone who isn't heavily relying on name recognition because of COVID-19's destruction of canvassing and ground operations.

[windjammer]

IndyRep, how would you rate all these races?

[KaiserDave]

Tom Winter raised a respectable 800K. He just got curb stomped.

I think he got into the habit of posting on Social Media and the echo chamber making him think he was doing better than he was. You have to go out and campaign (which was obviously screwed up by the pandemic). A lot of the older voters who vote in primaries aren't even on Facebook and Twitter. He  didn't do yard signs either, no mailings, no ads. WTF did he spend his money on?

It seems he forgot the core populist principles of retail politics. :/

It almost certainly couldn't have saved Winter given the margin by which he ultimately lost, but traditional retail politics has been harder for pretty much everyone who isn't heavily relying on name recognition because of COVID-19's destruction of canvassing and ground operations.

All true

[President Johnson]

Cooney and New Jersey Greg win? Safe R -> Likely D (not safe ONLY bcuz polarization), though Daines is of course extremely safe.

I would say pure tossup/tilt Democratic. Cooney may be a slight favorite, but he can't take it for granted.

[Oryxslayer]

Also, multiple people have hinted that Winter has plans to run for the new western MT seat in 2022, so perhaps this was just a warm-up run to build a brand and name recognition.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Also, multiple people have hinted that Winter has plans to run for the new western MT seat in 2022, so perhaps this was just a warm-up run to build a brand and name recognition.

If so, the one-sided nature of this result invites a challenge. The first thing I'd seek in the 2022 cycle (if I were in his position) is Williams' endorsement.

[Heir of Camelot]

I think that's probably his plan but I don't really like his chances. His style rubs some the wrong way (ie. posting on Social Media every 15 minutes, being a Missouri transplant, not doing retail politics, not shaving, being unmarried, doing a Tinder profile for his campaign etc).

Had he gotten 30-40% of the vote I'd say he would be a favorite but getting curb stomped this hard (I think he got blown out more than any other statewide race) is a pretty strong repudiation from Montanans. KW is not that well liked either. Also he had a weird "October surprise" in the form of a picture at a Trump rally in '16 grinning like an idiot in an Uncle Sam costume and his explanation about it was not very convincing (he said he was there to protest, *cough bullsh**t).

Plus he only served one session in the State House before jumping to run for Congress and he'll be 3 years removed by that point. His following seems to be young people and progressives (who are notorious for not voting in primaries). By 22' there will be other rising stars like Bryce Bennett and Raph Graybill to contend with and likely a golden boy or girl from the state legislature who will rise to prominence in this election while he's sitting at home posting about his dog.

[KaiserDave]

I think that's probably his plan but I don't really like his chances. His style rubs some the wrong way (ie. posting on Social Media every 15 minutes, being a Missouri transplant, not doing retail politics, not shaving, being unmarried, doing a Tinder profile for his campaign etc).

Had he gotten 30-40% of the vote I'd say he would be a favorite but getting curb stomped this hard (I think he got blown out more than any other statewide race) is a pretty strong repudiation from Montanans. KW is not that well liked either. Also he had a weird "October surprise" in the form of a picture at a Trump rally in '16 grinning like an idiot in an Uncle Sam costume and his explanation about it was not very convincing (he said he was there to protest, *cough bullsh**t).

Plus he only served one session in the State House before jumping to run for Congress and he'll be 3 years removed by that point. His following seems to be young people and progressives (who are notorious for not voting in primaries). By 22' there will be other rising stars like Bryce Bennett and Raph Graybill to contend with and likely a golden boy or girl from the state legislature who will rise to prominence in this election while he's sitting at home posting about his dog.

Where does KW's weak popularity come from?

[Heir of Camelot]

She ran a very compelling primary campaign in '18 where she traveled around the state to every county with her dog in an old Winnebago and she was polling third and then pulled off a huge upset and won the primary (I voted for her). Then she hired a bunch of Clintonistas from the Hillary campaign and ran the most boring, vanilla, consultant driven campaign that I've ever seen in Montana politics and blew a golden opportunity to knock off Gianforte before he became entrenched. In a year when she had a massive blue wave and Tester's coattails she seemed to be content to sleepwalk to second place.

I've had some dealing with her staff and they are extremely pretentious and "high on their own farts" and the only thing they do particularly well is fundraise. Their ads are lame, she has a small mousey voice, and she dresses like a hobo. She refuses to throw any punches ever, and doesn't have a clue how to fire up the troops. That's not going to get it done.

[KaiserDave]

She ran a very compelling primary campaign in '18 where she traveled around the state to every county with her dog in an old Winnebago and she was polling third and then pulled off a huge upset and won the primary (I voted for her). Then she hired a bunch of Clintonistas from the Hillary campaign and ran the most boring, vanilla, consultant driven campaign that I've ever seen in Montana politics and blew a golden opportunity to knock off Gianforte before he became entrenched. In a year when she had a massive blue wave and Tester's coattails she seemed to be content to sleepwalk to second place.

I've had some dealing with her staff and they are extremely pretentious and "high on their own farts" and the only thing they do particularly well is fundraise. Their ads are lame, she has a small mousey voice, and she dresses like a hobo. She refuses to throw any punches ever, and doesn't have a clue how to fire up the troops. That's not going to get it done.

Wow, she had it and then...lost it.

Unfortunate

Hopefully she gets it back before November

[Continential]

Hopefully Maryland Matt will lose. How come Winter got 10%, and I wonder where the 3% of Mues voters came from?

[Landslide Lyndon]

I've had some dealing with her staff and they are extremely pretentious and "high on their own farts" and the only thing they do particularly well is fundraise. Their ads are lame, she has a small mousey voice, and she dresses like a hobo. She refuses to throw any punches ever, and doesn't have a clue how to fire up the troops. That's not going to get it done.

I don't know why but I had a good laugh with that.

[Heir of Camelot]

I've had some dealing with her staff and they are extremely pretentious and "high on their own farts" and the only thing they do particularly well is fundraise. Their ads are lame, she has a small mousey voice, and she dresses like a hobo. She refuses to throw any punches ever, and doesn't have a clue how to fire up the troops. That's not going to get it done.

I don't know why but I had a good laugh with that.

Yeah check this pic out. .

https://www.facebook.com/WilliamsForMontana/photos/a.423439012260/379283782260/?type=3&theater