Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[mvd10]

Isn't that photo 10+ years old though? She's still very attractive for a 40-something politician though . I think I once said that I'd totally do her when I still was in high school.

[DavidB.]

I don't know what they see in Hennis-Plasschaert. Her first few years at Defense were a disaster and she isn't terribly charismatic. She also is rather left-wing for a VVD politician and the VVD usually does much better under more right-wing leaders (Rutte originally started out as a centrist but I strongly doubt you can call post-2009 Rutte a centrist). Yet they still placed her ahead of Zijlstra (who despite having some flaws would be far superior to Hennis-Plasschaert) and Dijkhoff on the party list, and they also considered her for parliamentary leader which probably is a sign they see a potential leader in her. Maybe they wanted to play the "woman card", but in that case they just should have begged Edith Schippers to remain in politics (if Rutte wants a top EU job in 2019 it's his, and Schippers could take over and become the first female PM).

Many people don't like Schippers due to her healthcare policies, whereas Hennis has never done anything that makes her unlikeable to the general public. (Though I personally love Schippers and am lukewarm about Hennis, who is likeable but probably shouldn't have done Defense. Will probably make a great Foreign Affairs Minister though.)

[DavidB.]

Healthcare Minister Edith Schippers has criticized Rutte-III's decision to freeze healthcare copayments at 385 euros, which will cause premiums to rise instead: she called it "a symbolic measure that all of us will pay for." But she said she will carry out their demand anyway, calling it a "fact of life for a deeply demissionary minister like me." Furthermore, Schippers expounded on the political differences between Rutte and her, explaining how she is more progressive than Rutte on social issues in the medical sphere (most prominently euthanasia on demand) and more conservative than him on issues regarding immigration and national identity; however, these differences never impeded their excellent working relationship. Schippers has been one of Rutte's closest allies within the VVD for a long time. I still hope that she will ever become the first Dutch female PM

[mvd10]

We've still got Halbe Zijlstra, who is even more conservative than Schippers on immigration and national identity and still has a decent shot at becoming PM imo (though his stock has fallen compared to 2 years ago imo). But the most likely next VVD leader is Klaas Dijkhoff, and I can't really place him ideologically (he's only been a household name since 2015). I guess he's roughly in the centre of the VVD? Being centre-right/right-wing on national identity issues doesn't mean you have to be so pessimistic and grim as Buma (see: Lindner, Kurz and Rutte ).

Not much happened, besides even more stories about how we're in the last phase of government formation. I'm not really optimistic about VVD-CDA-D66-CU anymore. No social agreement will mean full blown union opposition (any social agreement wasn't going to be ambitious anyway though), a very thin majority is never good and Buma probably will clash with D66 and parts of the VVD a lot the coming few years (not to mention the CDA/CU-VVD/D66 clashes on ethical issues and the tax system and the VVD-everyone else clashes on the economy). I don't really expect much from the next coalition anymore, especially since budgetary room has become smaller since March (which will mean less money to make deep reforms more palatable).

[DavidB.]

Another thing worth mentioning is that the four parties are apparently seriously discussing kilometer-based road pricing for trucks, the Dutch equivalent of the German LKW-Maut. This is something CU and D66 support and would fall within the environmental agenda. Demissionary Infrastructure Minister Melanie Schultz van Haegen (VVD) already sharply denounced the idea: "In the Netherlands everyone already contributes a great lot to infrastructure. Through income taxes, excise taxes, car taxes and road taxes. I think that is enough. I will continue to advise against this policy." This would be one of the measures that could quickly become deeply unpopular: everything regarding infrastructure and road pricing is pretty toxic especially among the VVD base, though it is smart not to include ordinary cars. Still, I could see De Telegraaf start a crusade over this. Technically it would be quite easy to implement this policy (contrary to what Schultz says) because trucks already have the equipment necessary to measure their kilometers: they already use it in Belgium and Germany.

CU leader Segers already mentioned that "every inhabitant of the Netherlands will experience the consequences of our decision to abide by the Paris agreement" and I expect some other unpopular policies that will make the Netherlands greener.

[mvd10]

Bad news for the VVD. Defence Minister Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert might be forced to resign. According to a report the Defence Ministry made huge mistakes which resulted in the death of 2 young soldiers in Mali (they died during an accident with mortar grenades, apparently the grenades weren't safe). While Rutte and Hennis-Plasschaert herself said that she would stay on Deputy PM (and PvdA leader) Lodewijk Asscher said that she should resign. A leading VVD member said: "This isn't a knife in the back, this is a samurai sword."

Even if Hennis-Plasschaert doesn't have to resign this kills off any remaining chances of her becoming VVD leader imo (Dijkhoff 2021!). I also don't know what this means for her position in the next cabinet. I don't think they'll let her stay at Defence after this, but appointing her Foreign Affairs Minister after a scandal like this also won't be smart politically. Maybe she'll become parliamentary leader after all (or perhaps she'll get an entirely different portfolio). And if she is forced to resign it's game over anyway. I don't think she will make it tbh.

Former VVD backbencher Ybletje Berckmoes-Duindam released a book about the VVD. Before this she was most famous for being the the most anonymous MP (and she herself has acknowledged that she failed at being MP), but this book surely changes it. She's very critical of the VVD. According to her there is a culture of fear within the parliamentary VVD, MP's are expected to do exactly what they're told. She claims that some MP's even were voting while they were drunk. Apparently Halbe Zijlstra can be quite intimidating (this doesn't surprise me at all tbh), Hennis-Plasschaert is quite bossy and Klaas Dijkhoff is a "blaffende generaal" (roughly translate to barking general). She even claims that they often try to get rid of disappointing MP's by trying to appoint them as mayors of small towns (which really fits the FvD's party cartel narrative). According to her this also explains why the VVD opposes a directly elected mayor: they see the mayoralty as an excellent way to get rid of failed MP's without causing a stir.

A lot of this probably is exaggerated, but I think there definitely is a large part of truth to this. Some of the things she claims have been circulating for years (for example the fact that foreign policy spokesperson Han ten Broeke probably won't become Minister because of a conflict with Halbe Zijlstra) and she isn't the first MP to complain about the iron fraction discipline. And for the drunk MP's part: VVD members are known for living the good life (yours truly included).

[DavidB.]

I don't think Hennis was ever going to be the next party leader. It will be Dijkhoff or Zijlstra, most likely the former. And I think Hennis will still become Foreign Affairs minister (regardless of whether she has to resign or not; she may pull a Donner), though if she was set to become Defense Minister again this will obviously hurt her chances.

The Defense issue is really quite upsetting. Defense has made unbelievable mistakes: ammunition made in Bulgaria hastily bought from the Americans (who could not guarantee that it was safe) was not checked for any technical issues. Due to bad design, the grenades were penetrated by moisture and corroded by the heat in Mali, causing an accident in which two soldiers passed away and one other was severely wounded.

A completely unrelated accident occurred in Woensdrecht, where, due to a lack of funding for Defense shooting ranges, Commandos had to exercise at a police shooting range with thin walls, which did not stop the bullets and fatally wounded a 35-year old sergeant. Following the news about Mali, colleagues of this sergeant filed an official complaint with the police against the Defense Ministry.

Some other things: it seems clear that the next government is going to consist of 16 ministers (6 VVD, 4 CDA, 4 D66 and 2 CU) and 9 deputy ministers (4-2-2-1), which must be a setback for Rutte, who preferred working with much smaller governments. There are going to be four new ministries: Agriculture (currently part of Economic Affairs), Family & the Elderly (the 2nd CU minister will probably do this), Climate, and Immigration & Asylum. Stef Blok's ministry for Housing will not continue to exist.

There is likely going to be a major overhaul of the income tax system: from four brackets we go to two, of 37% and 49%. This would mainly benefit middle and higher incomes and form a tax cut of 5 billion euros. In exchange, the VAT would rise, leading to a further increase of income inequality. But there will probably be at least some compensatory mechanisms. Image on the changes here.

The next government is likely to be presented at the 23rd of October.

[mvd10]

Tax reform is badly needed, and income inequality in the Netherlands has barely risen the past 20 years so I don't think that's a huge problem (but I'm a right-winger so I'm very biased on this ). Further limiting the mortgage interest deduction also is an option btw, and the mortgage interest deduction disproportionately benefits VVD voters wealthy people. I suppose they're going to increase the tax credit on labour income (and other tax credits). They're going to reserve €5 billion + billions of €€€ from tax hikes on consumption and pollution in order to slash income taxes, and the proposed income tax rate changes only would cost €5 billion (and less if deductions only can be applied to the lower rate) which leaves a lot of money for other tax cuts, and those probably will be used to make sure low incomes and pensioners don't lose out.

I fully support the social flat tax (this is how CDA and CU call it). An actual flat tax would be unrealistic and a distributional nightmare, so I'd settle for a flat tax plus a surcharge for high incomes. The most attractive part of this tax plan is that it reduces marginal tax rates for low and middle incomes (especially if they also increase the labour tax credit), which is necessary because marginal tax rates for them are criminally high (a lot of tax credits and means-tested benefits start to phase-out very early).

I might be wrong, but weren't the grenades bought when Henk Kamp (also VVD, currently Economic Affairs Minister but will retire in a few weeks) was Defense Minister? Anyway, I'm not very confident about Hennis-Plasschaert's chances. This is a very serious and tragic affair and Hennis-Plasschaert never was that popular (the military also doesn't like her) so I doubt public opinion is on her side. She already made a lot of mistakes during her first couple of years, and there are plenty of capable candidates for Defense and Foreign Affairs.

[DC Al Fine]

How bad are the implied marginal tax rates for low to middle income earners, once tax credits are included?

[mvd10]

It really depends on your situation (as you obviously don't receive a means-tested tax credit for working parents if you're not a working parent for example ), but this is the graph:



The purple line is the average marginal tax rate, the other 2 lines are the 5th percentile and the 95th percentile. The marginal tax rate for people earning between 10 and 20k is quite low because of the labour tax credit which phases in between 10k and 20k. But if you get beyond that the marginal rate gets really high in some circumstances. And if your income gets really high your marginal tax rate basically is 52% because all means-tested tax credits/benefits are fully phased out or fully phased in (except for some very weird cases I suppose?).

[DavidB.]

Good points regarding the marginal tax rate; in general I do support the idea behind the new tax system, namely that working more should pay off, but if this turns out to be increasing wealth/income inequality I will be less happy (particularly if this comes together with an increase in the VAT rate).

I might be wrong, but weren't the grenades bought when Henk Kamp (also VVD, currently Economic Affairs Minister but will retire in a few weeks) was Defense Minister?

They were, but Dutch participation in the Minusma mission in Mali was decided on by this government and Hennis is responsible for these grenades being used there. She should have known that these grenades might not have passed a safety test. If the army does not have the means to safely conduct missions with the available material, the only correct conclusion is that we cannot participate in them.

In general the commission found that politicians -- certainly not only Hennis -- are incredibly eager in supporting military missions without providing the financial means to ensure the safety of military personnel. Even the Rutte-I government cut back a lot on Defense and by that time most of us already knew how dire the situation in the army was. But as GeenStijl correctly focused on, the PvdA is all but blameless in this matter too, since Foreign Minister Koenders, who had worked in Mali for the UN, wanted this mission very badly. I hope this disaster will open some eyes in The Hague, but it will be too little, too late. And Hennis is just clueless. She may very well be capable at a different position (I would like to see her at Foreign Affairs, though I'd obviously still prefer Ten Broeke), but Defense was clearly not the right place for her.

[mvd10]

Yeah, Hennis-Plasschaert should have known this regardless and she is responsible for this, but I just wondered whether this also will haunt Kamp. Probably not though, he won't be in Rutte 3 anyway.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Just realised Aruba had elections on the 22nd. Anybody know anything about that?

[DavidB.]

Just realised Aruba had elections on the 22nd. Anybody know anything about that?

The Aruban People's Party topped the poll again, but lost four out of its thirteen seats (out of 21) and thereby its majority, which prompted Prime Minister Mike Eman to resign. MEP got 9 seats, the new party POR, founded as a splitoff from APP, won two, and RED won one seat. A coalition between APP and POR seems most likely, since APP ruled out governing with MEP in the campaign (but who really knows now Eman is gone). I have no idea what all these parties stand for (perhaps not much).

[DC Al Fine]

It really depends on your situation (as you obviously don't receive a means-tested tax credit for working parents if you're not a working parent for example ), but this is the graph:



The purple line is the average marginal tax rate, the other 2 lines are the 5th percentile and the 95th percentile. The marginal tax rate for people earning between 10 and 20k is quite low because of the labour tax credit which phases in between 10k and 20k. But if you get beyond that the marginal rate gets really high in some circumstances. And if your income gets really high your marginal tax rate basically is 52% because all means-tested tax credits/benefits are fully phased out or fully phased in (except for some very weird cases I suppose?).

Yikes. I see circumstances where one's effective marginal tax rate is greater than 110%! They should at least reform that. Earning 100 Euros and ending up with -10 is a farce.

[mvd10]

FvD and Leefbaar Rotterdam (local right-wing party in Rotterdam) want to reinstate the "vestigingswet" (a law that required starting businesses to have special licenses). It was repealed in 2007 because it reduced competition and increased prices, but FvD and Leefbaar Rotterdam want to reinstate it because there barely are any ethnic Dutch shops anymore (so they basically see it as a backdoors method to reduce the amount of Moroccan/Turkish shops). And they call themselves right-wing . Cucks.

[DavidB.]

FvD and Leefbaar Rotterdam (local right-wing party in Rotterdam) want to reinstate the "vestigingswet" (a law that required starting businesses to have special licenses). It was repealed in 2007 because it reduced competition and increased prices, but FvD and Leefbaar Rotterdam want to reinstate it because there barely are any ethnic Dutch shops anymore (so they basically see it as a backdoors method to reduce the amount of Moroccan/Turkish shops). And they call themselves right-wing . Cucks.

I don't think FvD actually call themselves right-wing. But yeah, bad idea. Love my Kurdish, Moroccan and Polish cornerstores. And it's not as if Dutch people would suddenly start opening shops. The only companies this would benefit are the local Albert Heijn and Jumbo.

[mvd10]

Defence Minister Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert (VVD) just resigned. Chief of Defence Tom Middendorp also will resign. It's not clear what this means for Hennis-Plasschaert's political future. It's possible that she returns in a different position in a couple of weeks (Rutte 3), but it's unlikely because of the short amount of time between this scandal and Rutte 3 (and I doubt she'll get Defence or Foreign Affairs after this).

[DavidB.]

Aaaand she's gone. Mixed feelings: while she really had to resign, I'm afraid this might make it much more likely for Kaag to get Foreign Affairs... on the other hand there is no reason why this would affect the VVD's claim to this ministry and we might get a much better candidate (Ten Broeke? Van Baalen?) too.

[mvd10]

Omg yes pls. Van Baalen for PM!

But I don't think he'll ever be minister. He didn't get Defence in Rutte 2 or Foreign Affairs in Rutte 1 despite being very qualified for both imo (instead they went with a not very experienced MP for Defence and a random 65-year old dude for Foreign Affairs). I guess he was too vocal in his support for Verdonk during the 2006 leadership election? Or maybe he just is too Wassenaar/too right-wing (probably both).

[DavidB.]

He was shortlisted for Foreign Affairs in 2010, but Wilders really wanted Rosenthal -- not a smart move, because Van Baalen is very pro-Israel too and would have been much more effective than Rosenthal. In 2012 the PvdA got that ministry. Stories about Van Baalen and neo-nazi sympathies (he allegedly wrote a letter to NVU leader Joop Glimmerveen as a 16-year old) hurt him in the 1990s but I can't imagine this nothingburger still being relevant today. I see no reason why he couldn't do it, though I think Ten Broeke may have a better shot. Van Baalen would also make a great Defense Minister, I agree.

[mvd10]

I think his main problem is his right-wing image. He was one of the few MP's who opposed throwing Verdonk out back in the day and his move to the European Parliament in 2009 looked an awful lot like a kick upstairs to prevent him from making any trouble.

[DavidB.]

It now seems likely that we will have a referendum on a new law that would greatly increase intelligence services' access to private communication on social media. The new law, approved by the right and the PvdA in both chambers of parliament, would allow intelligence services to access social media data without needing a warrant from a judge. A group of students from Amsterdam found this to be alarming and started a campaign for a referendum, which initially seemed unrealistic but caught fire last week, receiving over 100,000 signatures in a few days. They are now at 216,000 and have until October 16th to reach 300,000. The referendum would take place together with the local elections in March 2018, virtually ensuring that the turnout threshold of 30% for the result to be valid would be reached. The initiative is supported by civil society organizations such as Amnesty International and Bits for Freedom and political parties SP, PvdD, DENK (lol) and FvD. The D66 youth organization supports it too, but of course this referendum would be very difficult for D66, who do not support the law but will be in a government that supports the law and who support referendums but will join a government that will likely abolish the referendum...

[Famous Mortimer]

FvD and Leefbaar Rotterdam (local right-wing party in Rotterdam) want to reinstate the "vestigingswet" (a law that required starting businesses to have special licenses). It was repealed in 2007 because it reduced competition and increased prices, but FvD and Leefbaar Rotterdam want to reinstate it because there barely are any ethnic Dutch shops anymore (so they basically see it as a backdoors method to reduce the amount of Moroccan/Turkish shops). And they call themselves right-wing . Cucks.

I don't think FvD actually call themselves right-wing. But yeah, bad idea. Love my Kurdish, Moroccan and Polish cornerstores. And it's not as if Dutch people would suddenly start opening shops. The only companies this would benefit are the local Albert Heijn and Jumbo.

If relationship between immigrant run corner shops and supermarkets in The Netherlands is anything like that relationship in the US, that's not a bad thing. Supermarkets pay their employees more and they charge their customers less. Muslims will even be among those workers and employees. This is better for anyone.

[Angel of Death]

It's the Dutch version of "taco trucks on every corner"!