2009 State and Federal elections in Germany

[minionofmidas]

It did? In the sense that some rural Protestant* areas had and in some cases still have elevated FDP results without an immediately ready explanation, it's true I suppose.

In East Germany, the FDP is probably the party with the least regional variation. Certainly true in Saxony yesterday. In West Germany, the best results come from posh suburbs and posh inner city areas. The weakest results come from poor inner city areas. Rural areas in general tend to be subpar, urban areas abovepar. (The weakest results compared to the CDU probably come from geriatric non-posh inner suburbs.)

*The winegrowing areas on the Mosel are Catholic but fit the pattern otherwise.

[Tender Branson]

Hmm, Matschie only won by 2.9% in Jena I ?

Isn't that a very weak result for a direct vote ?

[minionofmidas]

Hmm, Matschie only won by 2.9% in Jena I ?

Isn't that a very weak result for a direct vote ?

Why would a third party candidate win a direct seat at all?

[freek]

North Rhine Westphalia


AMP (who?) 0 (-1)

Apparently the Aufbruch Mittelstand Partei, a party with 1 seat in Duisburg council 2004-2009.

[Tender Branson]

Hmm, Matschie only won by 2.9% in Jena I ?

Isn't that a very weak result for a direct vote ?

Why would a third party candidate win a direct seat at all?

I thought a candidate of a top party with statewide recognition would have an easier time winning a direct seat against a nobody-local-candidate.

Anyway, CDU-FDP is now below 50% Germany-wide, according to a new Allensbach poll (conducted before the state elections):

CDU: 35.5%
SPD: 23.0%
FDP: 14.0%
Greens: 13.5%
Left: 9.5%
Others: 4.5%

CDU/FDP: 49.5%
SPD/Greens/Left: 46.0%

[minionofmidas]

Hmm, Matschie only won by 2.9% in Jena I ?

Isn't that a very weak result for a direct vote ?

Why would a third party candidate win a direct seat at all?

I thought a candidate of a top party with statewide recognition would have an easier time winning a direct seat against a nobody-local-candidate.

That would depend on whether Matschie's opponents were, in fact, nobodies locally. Or just nobodies outside of their local frame of reference. It also depends on previous results I guess.
The 2004 result in Jena I was CDU 30.0, PDS 26.9, SPD 21.3 (direct vote). Some people probably voted for whoever they thought had better chances of beating the CDU. More of these people probably voted for the Left candidate (though others probably voted for Matschie.)
Still... Gotha II was much the less likely pickup. You need to ask yourself if Matschie is popular? Clearly not popstar popular, I reckon.

In other news:
After Jurk resigned as SPD chair, the CDU stopped pretending to dither and announced coalition talks (as opposed to "preliminary talks") with the FDP. I think Tillich would have rather liked to at least keep the CDU-SPD option alive for a couple of days.

The Thuringian SPD will talk with the CDU first. Pressure is mounting from within the party on Althaus to resign. When he does, it probably means Grand Coalition. Stupid. Stupid. Stupid. Though not as stupid as joining a Grand Coalition under Althaus would be. That'd probably throw the General to Blackyellow for good and condemn Thuringia's state SPD to the same size as Saxony's for future state elections.

On the Saar, everybody expects Redredgreen or Jamaica, with Redredgreen the favored option. A Grand Coalition is considered unlikely. The local Greens intend to take their time (preferrably til after the General Election. Stupid. Stupid. Stupid. Federal Greens seem to prefer a quicker decision. We'll see what happens when the pressure mounts.) and seem to think that this thing they have here is fucking golden and they're not going to give it away for free (did I paraphrase Blago right?) SPD and Left have no problem with Redredgreen. Lafontaine will not of course join a Saar cabinet.
Here, of course, Peter Müller with his centrist reputation not resigning is actually *necessary* to make Jamaica happen. Besides, there's no obvious successor in sight.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I guess the two Thuringian options are "CDU/SPD without Althaus" and "Left/SPD without Ramelow" (as premier at least). The SPD enters a coalition with the party whose current leader forfeits the PM position first.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Party Vote maps for Saxony. There's a similar set of the 2004 elections on the gallery, for those that like to compare (keys are different though).

[minionofmidas]

Finally! I feared I might have to explicitly ask for maps.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Thuringian prime minister Dieter Althaus resigned today, effective immediately.

Finance minister Birgit Diezel (CDU) took over as Acting prime minister again (she had already acted for Althaus from January to April when Althaus was incapicated after his skiing accident).

Althaus' resignation generally increases the likelihood of a CDU/SPD coalition in Thuringia. The SPD still plans to talk to both the Left Party and the CDU though.

[Tender Branson]

Center-Left is closing in on Center-Right, according to Emnid and Infratest dimap:

CDU/CSU: 34%
SPD: 26%
FDP: 14%
Greens: 11%
Left: 11%
Others: 4%

CDU/CSU-FDP: 48%
SPD/Greens/Left: 48%

CDU/CSU: 35%
SPD: 23%
FDP: 14%
Greens: 13%
Left: 11%
Others: 4%

CDU/CSU-FDP: 49%
SPD/Greens/Left: 47%

[Хahar 🤔]

Just say Right and Left, please.

[Tender Branson]

Merkel is also going down a bit in the direct vote for Chancellor:



Allthough her job approval rating stays high:

Merkel: 71% Approve
Steinmeier: 58% Approve

[Tender Branson]

Althaus' resignation as Thuringia Prime Minister even caught Merkel and all of the CDU as a surprise, reports the newspaper "Welt". Merkel was to campaign in Freiburg and as she learned about Alhaus' decision to resign, she left 3.000 people who came to watch her alone in the rain for more than an hour ... Althaus was Merkel's man in the East and it's a big blow for her in these final weeks before the elections.

[Franzl]

Well here we go again, the beginning of another CDU implosion.....

[minionofmidas]

One can only hope you're right, Joe.

Unless one is specifically interested in the SPD as a brand, rather than as a set of values and policies. In that case, another Grand Coalition with a weakened SPD is probably the last thing you'd wish for.

[minionofmidas]

New Wahlomat is online.

There's an English version.

[Јas]

New Wahlomat is online.

There's an English version.

53 FDP
53 RRP
51 PIRATEN
48 RENTNER
47 FAMILIE
45 PBC
45 ADM
43 DKP
42 MLPD   
41 GRÜNE
41 SPD  
41 Die Tierschutzpartei 
41 BP
41 PSG 
40 ödp
39 CDU/CSU  
39 ZENTRUM
39 DIE VIOLETTEN
37 DVU
36 Score BüSo 
34 FWD
32 DIE LINKE
30 REP   
28 NPD

I skipped quite a few questions though which I didn't feel I knew enough about to answer properly.

[minionofmidas]

Left 63
MLPD (included for joke reasons) 59
Pirates (included for personal interest reasons) 58
Greens 55
SPD 49
NPD (included for joke reasons) 45
FDP 37
CDU/CSU 23

[Hans-im-Glück]

My result of the Wahl-o-mat (totally 96 points):

RENTNER    78  
Die Linke    78  
SPD            75
MLPD          75  
Grüne         74
Piraten       71
NPD            62  
Republikaner  48
FDP             42
CDU/CSU     40

[Filuwaúrdjan]

More maps...

[minionofmidas]

Guess where the Catholics in the ex-GDR live.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Guess where the Catholics in the ex-GDR live.

Jena, obviously

[minionofmidas]

*ding* *ding* *ding*

We have a Loser!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

*ding* *ding* *ding*

We have a Loser!

Being serious for a moment, why have voters in Eichsfeld adopted such an, erm, "Western" voting pattern? Influence of local priests in the early '90's or just an identification thing?