Australia 2022 Election

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I think he was also seriously helped by Tony Abbott being defeated last election: that dude definitely was out for revenge.

Oh absolutely, hell hath no fury like Tony Abbott scorned. Another big benefit is the two members best placed to succeed him as leader (Dutton and Frydenberg) are both in marginal seats and have been rather distracted for the last year with constituency affairs as the national polling has tanked. On uniform swing they are in deep deep trouble and word on the ground backs that up.

Would Frydenburg sooner lose to a Green or to a Labor candidate?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So, at this moment, where would y'all place Labor's chances at winning the election? Percentage terms...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So, at this moment, where would y'all place Labor's chances at winning the election? Percentage terms...

Higher than the Coalition definitely, 50-60%.

The odds of a hung parliament are shortening, though. Labor's very likely to pick up a handful of seats in WA (Swan & Pearce), SA (Boothby) and Victoria (Chisholm, Casey, possibly Higgins & La Trobe), but the Coalition are optimistic about holding on to marginals in Tasmania (Bass & Braddon) and possibly even making gains in NSW (Macquarie, Dobell, Gilmore & Hunter) and Queensland (Lilley, Blair & Moreton - though Labor also have targets in Longman & Dickson).

So overall there may only be a small net shift of seats to Labor, and this election is definitely seeing the rise of small-l liberal Independents in formerly blue-ribbon Liberal seats. I know the Libs are particularly worried about polling in North Sydney, Wentworth and Goldstein, and Frydenberg is facing a challenge in Kooyong - if he lost the Libs would be out in opposition without an obvious leader to take them forward.

If there is a hung parliament, it obviously gets tricky to predict who forms government, but my and most people's hunch would be Labor. Of the current crossbench, Wilkie (Ind) and Bandt (Green) have previously sided with them, and most of these "teal" Independents are united around two big policy areas: climate change and a federal ICAC - something that Labor is much likelier to offer more on.

It surprises me a bit to hear that Hunter would be a realistic Coalition target. But turns out Labor only held on by a 5% margin last time. And it's open, too, which probably hurts Labor as well in this election (assuming Fitzgibbon had a personal vote).
Thanks for the run-down.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So, at this moment, where would y'all place Labor's chances at winning the election? Percentage terms...

Higher than the Coalition definitely, 50-60%.

The odds of a hung parliament are shortening, though. Labor's very likely to pick up a handful of seats in WA (Swan & Pearce), SA (Boothby) and Victoria (Chisholm, Casey, possibly Higgins & La Trobe), but the Coalition are optimistic about holding on to marginals in Tasmania (Bass & Braddon) and possibly even making gains in NSW (Macquarie, Dobell, Gilmore & Hunter) and Queensland (Lilley, Blair & Moreton - though Labor also have targets in Longman & Dickson).

So overall there may only be a small net shift of seats to Labor, and this election is definitely seeing the rise of small-l liberal Independents in formerly blue-ribbon Liberal seats. I know the Libs are particularly worried about polling in North Sydney, Wentworth and Goldstein, and Frydenberg is facing a challenge in Kooyong - if he lost the Libs would be out in opposition without an obvious leader to take them forward.

If there is a hung parliament, it obviously gets tricky to predict who forms government, but my and most people's hunch would be Labor. Of the current crossbench, Wilkie (Ind) and Bandt (Green) have previously sided with them, and most of these "teal" Independents are united around two big policy areas: climate change and a federal ICAC - something that Labor is much likelier to offer more on.

It surprises me a bit to hear that Hunter would be a realistic Coalition target. But turns out Labor only held on by a 5% margin last time. And it's open, too, which probably hurts Labor as well in this election (assuming Fitzgibbon had a personal vote).
Thanks for the run-down.

That whole area of NSW is undergoing the same shift that previous Democrat/Labour heartlands in mining communities in the US (and to a lesser extent the UK) have already undergone. The social conservatism that's always existed in those places is combining with a declining union movement and a resistance to action on climate change that threatens their livelihoods. In the UK of course, immigration is also a massive issue in these areas; even more so than their equivalent places like West Virginia in the US, where coal mining still dominates.

The Coalition just promises "jobs jobs jobs" with no eye towards the next 15-20 years, when, regardless of what Australia does on climate change, the market will have started to move on anyway. Labor's caught between trying to appeal to inner-city and suburban voters like me who demand action on climate change and trying to keep a hold of enough seats in these areas to form government. They end up pleasing neither. Fitzgibbon definitely had a big personal vote which is largely why the party tolerated his carping at the sidelines for so long. I wouldn't be surprised at all if, even if Labor wins a majority, Hunter falls.

Do you think Dan Repacholi is a good candidate?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What is the UAPs mostly likely to win seat ?

I would imagine Craig Kelly is the only real chance.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

TL;DR of the last 3 pages or so in 2 mins

Thanks for sharing this with us. I laughed so hard at the video, lol.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

In the UK just about all of those urban “remain” types who care about climate change vote Labour.

They certainly do not, except as a tactical choice on occasion. In fact both the question and the answer is exactly the same as 'why do people in Richmond never vote Labour when they're cross with the Conservatives?'

Yes, but Labour wins some pretty upscale seats like Islington etc...The thing that surprises me is that the Coalition is even still competitive in upscale inner city electorates like Wentworth. Seats like that in Canada are now totally unwinnable for the Tories and in the US professional urban voters have completely turned their backs on the GOP. And its not as if the Liberals in Australia have done anything to make themselves more palatable to urban quasi progressives - they are led by a fundamentalist Christian, they are totally xenophobic and into complete climate change denial.

FTR the Oz equivalents of Islington et al vote Labor too….mostly by massive margins as well.

Which singular electoral division do you think is most likenable to Islington?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

In the UK just about all of those urban “remain” types who care about climate change vote Labour.

They certainly do not, except as a tactical choice on occasion. In fact both the question and the answer is exactly the same as 'why do people in Richmond never vote Labour when they're cross with the Conservatives?'

Yes, but Labour wins some pretty upscale seats like Islington etc...The thing that surprises me is that the Coalition is even still competitive in upscale inner city electorates like Wentworth. Seats like that in Canada are now totally unwinnable for the Tories and in the US professional urban voters have completely turned their backs on the GOP. And its not as if the Liberals in Australia have done anything to make themselves more palatable to urban quasi progressives - they are led by a fundamentalist Christian, they are totally xenophobic and into complete climate change denial.

Whatever the leadership, the Coalition is still a "big tent" entity--in fact, if you want a Canadian equivalent of the Aussie dynamic, look no further than the part of Canada that's closest to Australia.  That is, BC, where you have a currently-in-power "Labor" entity (the BCNDP) vs, well, the fittingly-named BC Liberals mashing up the interior rednecks w/the urbane Langara/Quilchena types...

The BC Liberals do identify themselves as a "free enterprise coalition", similarly to the Coalition, and both unify a bunch of elements opposed to socialism into one entity.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The other issue is that the Australian population is far more concentrated in state capitals than in other countries, Queensland aside. If the Liberals wrote off Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide and Perth they would mathematically be locked out of rule in those states.

Australia is one of the worlds most urbanised countries, that means that any competitive party has to be able to win over urban voters.

https://www.yapms.com/app/?t=Australia_house_of_representatives
I toyed with this, created a "Bogans and Miners Party" colored purple, gave it everything besides the insets, and ended up with only 48 seats, roughly 60% the amount needed for a majority.
And that's already including many districts located along the coast that are basically urban, and outer metropolitan.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

RBA has raised interest rates. Certainly makes the cost of living argument stronger.

Didn't think they would actually do it in an election campaign and risk swinging the outcome. This is the second time the Coalition has been screwed by a mid-campaign interest rate hike.

What would the other time be? 2007?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

RBA has raised interest rates. Certainly makes the cost of living argument stronger.

Didn't think they would actually do it in an election campaign and risk swinging the outcome. This is the second time the Coalition has been screwed by a mid-campaign interest rate hike.

What would the other time be? 2007?

Yep, those interest rate rises really ripped apart the Howard government's economic focus.

I imagine it hurt particularly hard because Howard campaigned so hard on the rates issue in 2004.
Good thing for ScoMo that he didn't make keeping rates low the centerpiece of his campaign in 2019.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The other issue is that the Australian population is far more concentrated in state capitals than in other countries, Queensland aside. If the Liberals wrote off Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide and Perth they would mathematically be locked out of rule in those states.

Australia is one of the worlds most urbanised countries, that means that any competitive party has to be able to win over urban voters.

https://www.yapms.com/app/?t=Australia_house_of_representatives
I toyed with this, created a "Bogans and Miners Party" colored purple, gave it everything besides the insets, and ended up with only 48 seats, roughly 60% the amount needed for a majority.
And that's already including many districts located along the coast that are basically urban, and outer metropolitan.

Stuff like this is why I always get confused when people assume a GOP-style party would do well in Australia. The Coalition hold far more upper-class "liberal" electorates than Labor do Red Wall style ones. Even the likes of Newcastle are still largish cities....

You'd have to adjust for relative population density. Even then, the way it works in Australia, a "Down Under GOP" would waste heaps of votes in safe districts, not too unlike the SA Liberals.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Who are you supporting Ebowed if you support someone/plan on ranking the main two parties? I remember you supported Labor before the pandemic but I'm not sure who you are supporting?

I've supported the Greens and Labor in every previous election.  I'd number them this way this time

[1] Liberal Democrats
[2] Liberals
[3] United Australia Party
[4] Greens
[5] Labor
[6] One Nation

Protest voting against Labor?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What happens with the Liberal leadership if both Dutton and Frydenburg lose their seats?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.themandarin.com.au/188810-election-2022-almost-700-million-kicked-in-for-a-defence-reno/

The federal government has announced yet another renovation and expansion to a defence facility, with the promise of $694.4 million for the General John Baker Complex, which is home to the joint operations command for the Australian Defence Force here and overseas.

Defence minister Peter Dutton has made yet another spending promise in his portfolio, with $30 million towards the renovation and expansion of army reserve and cadet facilities in Tasmania.

That investment is a portion of a $1 billion that has been set aside to renovate army reserve and cadet facilities around the country.

A re-elected Coalition government would put in place a technology skills passport that will assist with getting Australians work ready.

It seems the Coalition is seeking to present itself as having lots of meat to its defense policy.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.themandarin.com.au/188810-election-2022-almost-700-million-kicked-in-for-a-defence-reno/

The federal government has announced yet another renovation and expansion to a defence facility, with the promise of $694.4 million for the General John Baker Complex, which is home to the joint operations command for the Australian Defence Force here and overseas.

Defence minister Peter Dutton has made yet another spending promise in his portfolio, with $30 million towards the renovation and expansion of army reserve and cadet facilities in Tasmania.

That investment is a portion of a $1 billion that has been set aside to renovate army reserve and cadet facilities around the country.

A re-elected Coalition government would put in place a technology skills passport that will assist with getting Australians work ready.

It seems the Coalition is seeking to present itself as having lots of meat to its defense policy.

They always fearmonger over defense/immigration issues in the final days of the election.

I guess you can say it's their home turf.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

But if one does, there are a couple of potential reasons, one of which is how white Australia is and has always been compared to the UK and US.

Australia is less white than the UK.

Really? Australia I think is about 85% white.

If so, the UK would be more white than that, barely. 86% white, from the looks of it.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

But if one does, there are a couple of potential reasons, one of which is how white Australia is and has always been compared to the UK and US.

Australia is less white than the UK.

It also has a much higher immigrant population than the UK and the US, though admittedly Australia has an unusually high proportion of migrants from English-speaking countries (I think up until recently the UK and New Zealand was #1 and #2 in "Australian residents born overseas" charts)

When I saw you say "much higher" I was skeptical, but turns out Australia is at 29.1%, while America is at 19.1%. UK is at 14%.
Strikingly high. Australia is even more of an immigrant society than America is, which is quite an achievement.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

But if one does, there are a couple of potential reasons, one of which is how white Australia is and has always been compared to the UK and US.

Australia is less white than the UK.

It also has a much higher immigrant population than the UK and the US, though admittedly Australia has an unusually high proportion of migrants from English-speaking countries (I think up until recently the UK and New Zealand was #1 and #2 in "Australian residents born overseas" charts)

When I saw you say "much higher" I was skeptical, but turns out Australia is at 29.1%, while America is at 19.1%. UK is at 14%.
Strikingly high. Australia is even more of an immigrant society than America is, which is quite an achievement.

I mean Australia is a much more recent society than the US. I think there are very few Australians with significant ancestry from a non-English speaking country who had all four of their grandparents be born in Australia. My impression is that it's not the case in the US.

That's true. (Though I suspect that you'd find some in Chinatowns in Melbourne and Sydney, where many Chinese people came for the gold rushes in the 1850s)
Australia only really opened up to non-British immigration post-World War II, and non-European immigration post-mid-1960s. Australia's demographic bedrock continues to be Britannic lower class descendants, writ large.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What's the likelihood that Eric Abetz and George Christensen will be out at this election?
What changes could we see in the Senate more generally?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Watching the ABC live right now. Morrison is talking. It's very much the case that he's fixating on his strengths. Not really surprising.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Is it a sign of desperation that the Liberals have wheeled out John Howard so much?

It might be, right? But I suspect the single biggest reason is that John Howard is more popular than Scott Morrison.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Seriously WTF 2 Green MP's from queensland, this is weird. Did anybody predict that ?

The seats were known to be targets for them, I actually predicted Griffith for them, maybe that was a lucky guess.

I always thought Queensland was the most conservative mining heavy part of australia  so I thought it would their weakest state.

Metro Brisbane and the rest of the state may as well be distinct halves of the state, politically.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

ABC suggesting that Labor getting better swings with Chinese language speakers. Not a surprise but interesting to see-if it plays out.

Another swing in Chinese voters towards the left, similar to the collapse of the Canadian Tories in the Canadian election.  I wonder if some of this is to do with age churn as younger more left-wing Chinese voters come into the electorate.

Not impossible. Wouldn't be massively surprising either.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I've been reading this topic from time to time and completely forgot you guys had a general election today. I know the ALP was leading in the polls. What's it looking like right now with returns in? From what I gather, ALP is winning but it's a lot closer than expected. Is that right? (It also sounds frighteningly familiar to me.)

Someone opined that it looked atrocious for Labor, another opined it looked very good.
I think a lot will be made clear as more votes are counted.