Predict Iowa for the Democrats

[Ben.]

I have heard several pundits argue that the actual margin will be larger than what's currently indicated by the polls. Do most forum members agree with this viewpoint?

Probably, if for no other reason than through the caucus system we'll probably see in most meetings only two or three candidates emerging as viable (expanding those candidates shares of the vote as a result)... not sure that any poll had Kerry anywhere near 39% before the caucus.

[Lief 🗽]

The polls in 2004 were also closer than the final result.

[Sam Spade]

Looks like to me for the last round of movement - Obama may have some last-minute momentum going into tomorrow, and this could affect the prediction.

[Boris]

Not that I have any clue what I'm talking about, but here's my stab at this:

32.17% Hillary (middle-aged women dominate)
29.46% Edwards
27.84% Obama (college kids don't show up, as usual)

[afleitch]

Edwards 32%
Obama 27%
Clinton 25%

[Јas]

I'll take my own dart-throw thusly...

Clinton 31%
Edwards 30.5%
Obama 30%

[MarkWarner08]

As of December 21st, 2007, who will win Iowa and with what % of the vote?

My prediction:

Obama: 30%
Edwards: 27%
Hillary: 26%
Richardson: 8%
Biden: 6%
Dodd: 2%
Kucinich: 1%
Gravel: 0%

Final Prediction:
Obama: 32%    O up 2%
Edwards: 28%  E up 1%
Clinton: 26%     C flat
Biden: 7%         B up 1%
Richardson: 5% R  down 3%
Dodd: 1%          D down 1%
Kucinich 1%       K flat
Gravel: 0%        G stuck at zero

Last minute "big mo" goes to Obama and Biden.

[Lief 🗽]

Final Prediction:

Edwards 33%
Obama 28%
Clinton 26%
Biden 6%
Dodd 4%
Richardson 2%
Kucinich 1%
Gravel 0%

If turnout shows 160,000 or more, Obama probably takes it. If not, then it's either Clinton or Edwards.

[JSojourner]

Okay, I am changing my prediction and this is my final one for Iowa...

Barack Obama         34%
Hillary Clinton          29%
John Edwards          19%
Joe Biden                  11%
Bill Richardson             2%
Chris Dodd                   2%
Dennis Kucinich            1.5%
Mike Gravel                >1%

I think Edwards "mad as hell" approach flails, just as Dean's did.  And his reliance on Iowa labor proves almost as ineffective as it did for Gephardt.  I predict the real story, aside from the Obama win, will be Biden breaking into double digits.  It won't necessarily be from strong or smart campaigning on his part.  But because Iowa Democrats know he's the best man to be dealing with Pakistan, the Saudis and others. 

The other story will be Richardson's horrible showing.  He's the first to drop out, unless Gravel beats him to it.  Dodd will hope for some New England love in New Hampshire before he calls it quits.

That's my final call.  Now I will set back and enjoy watching how wrong I was! LOL

[MarkWarner08]

Is the collective feeling that Richardson is plummeting in terms of momentum?

[YRABNNRM]

I'm not going to dare guess percentages so I'll just predict places...

Edwards
Clinton
Obama

The rest doesn't even matter. Edwards is able to capitalize on the base that he's built there since 2004 while Obama is hurt by his campaign's reliance on the youth turnout (which turns out to be non-existent).

Edwards victory in Iowa is unimportant, as Clinton still remains ahead nationwide but  Obama's campaign is killed by the disappointing third place finish. Clinton goes on to win NH and then every other state. Obama only wins Illinois and drops out after Super Tuesday. Edwards drops out in early spring.

[ilikeverin]

Is the collective feeling that Richardson is plummeting in terms of momentum?

I think the collective feeling is that "no one knows why Richardson was polling so high in the first place"

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Is the collective feeling that Richardson is plummeting in terms of momentum?

I think the collective feeling is that "no one knows why Richardson was polling so high in the first place"

He was always intriguing because of his moderate stances on the economy, but he has been underwhelming and uninspiring to say the least.

[StateBoiler]

This is hard to call. A very tight three-way that I think Obama will win, Clinton second, and Edwards third. Biden will take best of the rest followed by Richardson, Kucinich, and Dodd in that order.

I'm watching Hardball and Chris Matthews is bashing Clinton's communications director cause she's campaigning on change and he won't answer Matthews' question straight on what is different about Hillary from Bill.

[JSojourner]

Is the collective feeling that Richardson is plummeting in terms of momentum?

I think the collective feeling is that "no one knows why Richardson was polling so high in the first place"

He was always intriguing because of his moderate stances on the economy, but he has been underwhelming and uninspiring to say the least.

Well said.  Plus -- the biggest things in his favor were his foreign policy experience, his geographic base (the west is where the Dems want to grow their base) and the fact that he was a governor.

Name the last guy to move from the Senate to the White House.  Governors do a lot better.  But high hopes and fitting a lot of the right molds just wasn't enough.  We wanted to hear this guy speak.  He did.  And we weren't impressed.

[Verily]

Is the collective feeling that Richardson is plummeting in terms of momentum?

He hasn't had "momentum" in Iowa since October or so, but I think he's been squeezed in the last few weeks (so has Biden) as people settle down into one of the three camps.

[Meeker]

According to Politico, Richardson has only spent 6 days in Iowa all campaign.

[Democratic Hawk]

Edwards 30%
Clinton 26%
Obama 23%
Richardson 11%
Biden 6%
Others 4%

Revised prediction:

Edwards 31% (those angry folks will turn out to caucus)
Clinton 28%
Obama 27%
Others 14% (Biden, Richardson, Kucinich, Dodd, Gravel)

BTW, Kucinich is the "real Democrat" in this race. His words not mine. If he's the real Democrat, I'd hate to think what that would make me

Dave

[MarkWarner08]

When you're losing the message wars, you're bound to lose the battle. For months Hillary has sought to make this election about experience, when this strategy she failed, she tried a new tact: change through experience. Hillary claimed she was the only candidate with the experience to deliver change.

Now that her third message failed, she's plagiarized Obama's call to action.  For much of 2007 Obama has been saying "Fired up, ready to go!" Here's Hillary Clinton's new closer: "We are fired up and we are ready to go because we know America is ready for change and the process starts right here in Iowa."

Hillary has lost the message wars and Edwards has gone nuclear, using rhetoric that would make Norman Thomas blush. Meanwhile, Obama's pleasant message of change is winning Republicans and Independents to his side. As long as the young folks show up, Obama should win tomorrow by 3-4%.

[© tweed]

probably final prediction

Clinton 34
Edwards 30
Obama 26
Richardson 5
Biden 4
Kucinich 1

[MarkWarner08]

Clinton spokesguy Howard Wolfson stole another one of Obama's lines during a Hardball interview. Are the Clinton folks so desperate to stop Obama that they'll attempt to confuse voters about which candidate is the real change agent?

[Lief 🗽]

Edwards has gone nuclear, using rhetoric that would make Norman Thomas blush.

LOL, I wish.

[Eraserhead]

Final Prediction (1/2/08)

Obama 33%
Edwards 29%
Clinton 26%
Biden 6%
Richardson 5%
Dodd 1%
Kucinich 0%
Gravel 0%

[Sam Spade]

For right now - I reserve the right to change...

Edwards 29.9%
Clinton 29.3%
Obama 28.4%
Richardson 5.5%
Biden 4.4%
Others 2.5%

Edwards delegate % will naturally be slightly higher.

This one's looking a bit changed than before - unlike the Republicans, I think I can clearly see what's going to happen (unless I'm wrong )  As I commented before, I see some late Obama momentum and I think turnout will be strong.  This prediction is, of course, invalid if wrong.

Final Prediction - January 3, 2008
Obama 32.01%
Edwards 29.79%
Clinton 27.05%
Biden 4.79%
Richardson 4.42%
Others 1.94%

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

It should be noted that the person to win IA won't necessarily have the highest number of voters going to the caucus planning to choose them as their first choice.