CONGRESSIONAL RESULTS MEGA THREAD

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Schumer needs to step down.

AOC primary when

Never

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Bernie, Warren, and The Squad are to blame for House losses.  This "Medicare 4 All, Green New Deal, Defund the Police, Abolish ICE" bullsh**t cost us votes.  During my text-banking for Biden and Christina Hale, I got a LOT of these replies.

Again: your monkeys, your circus, and "I would have voted for your candidate but some other candidate said Medicare for All," is more likely to be uttered by a partisan than a genuinely persuadable voter (exit polls are janky but 70% of voters this time supported a government-run healthcare system, over 60% of Floridians voted for a minimum wage, etc.). The DJT performance this time is a strong case for Democrats needing to focus more on base activation and turnout.

In Haley Stevens' case, she's underperforming Biden and Peters not because of "defunding the police," but because of her gun control activism. If moderation is the answer, it has to come on non-kitchen table issues like these - Biden needs to stop touting the assault weapons ban.

Edit: Democrats also need to stop listening to yellow avatars on trade if they intend to win back communities rocked by unregulated globalisation.

No, M4A is pretty unpopular.  It has come to be associated with abolishing private health insurance and while universal healthcare is popular, abolishing private health insurance is a bridge too far even for a significant number of Democrats.  And frankly, gun control is far more important than doing universal healthcare the exact way the Squad wants to.  There are plenty of ways to do universal healthcare without abolishing private health insurance.  In any case, a Democratic Party that wimps out on gun control probably isn't even worth voting for.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

What's up with the likes of Lauren Underwood & Susan Wild? Looking at the current margins, I'd guess mail-in ballots would probably help them, but does anybody have more insight as to whether or not they'll be saved in the end?

Susan Wild should be okay, but IDK about Underwood

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Could Rita Hart still win in IA-02? She's behind by under 300 votes on NYT right now, but I'm unsure if the remaining precincts are more Democratic or Republican.

She definitely could, but it's a tossup

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Commmme on Mike !

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1324509069797781504?s=19

He actually took a lead after a drop from LA county..

Hopefully Smith eeks out a win

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Michelle steel came back and is now leading by 5k! with 98% in according to the NYT.

Young Kim  is leading by 2.5k at 93% in

Garcia is leading by 200 with 92%

Valadao is leading by 4k which is a good margin in a low turnout district with 74% in.

Gotta pray that these stay.

Hopefully Cisneros and Smith pull ahead, don’t really care about Cox.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1324694301234921474

Spanberger btfo

However yeah I agree that the main story of 2020 is just a mediocre performance, not a horrible one. Democrats even stand to flip some seats trending their way. Also Democrats please stop hiring Robby Mook I am literally begging you

Err...no, not really.  I think Spanberger is being kinda silly, but this is a very weak response from AOC.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Rouda probably lost if its actually 98% in, looks like that ballot harvesting worked

Orange has at least 175k outstanding county wide, not including late arriving mail.

But that's more in Levin's and Cisneros's distracts than Rouda's.

Really hope Cisneros wins, he’s one the good ones and Young Kim is just the worst.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Is it 100% over for Cisneros? They're only separated by about 3000 votes, though I have no idea how many votes haven't been counted.

Not yet

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

UT-04
Owens (R) 47.60%
McAdams (D, inc.) 47.35%

F***, Owens is a real sleazeball and a crackpot to boot.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Garcia will take back the lead with Tuesday and Thursday's updates from Ventura County

Dude, just change your avatar

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/HarleyRouda/status/1326223203216236544?s=19

This looks like a CONCESSION by Rep. Harley Rouda!

Well, congratulations to Michelle Park Steel then as the 1st Korean American elected to Congress

Already filed to run against Steel in 2022. lol.

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1326226014922420224?s=19

Good, enjoy your two year rental while you can

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Yeah, CA-25 is just too... "Karen". isn't racist enough to re-elect a white supremacist endorsing extremist.

FTFY

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Yeah, CA-25 is just too... "Karen". isn't racist enough to re-elect a white supremacist endorsing extremist.

FTFY

Fixed it, I don't know how you made the mess up, must have been thinking of another race.

Mike Garcia endorsed Trump and wanted him to win, yes?  Then guess what?  He supported a white supremacist.  This really isn't that complicated.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Yeah, CA-25 is just too... "Karen". isn't racist enough to re-elect a white supremacist endorsing extremist.

FTFY

Fixed it, I don't know how you made the mess up, must have been thinking of another race.

Mike Garcia endorsed Trump and wanted him to win, yes?  Then guess what?  He supported a white supremacist.  This really isn't that complicated.

If that is true why did Trump win the highest share of the minority vote by a Republican since 1960. It was clear than they didnt view him as a White Supremacist

#IHaveBlackFriends

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Terrible SLC batch for McAdams, Owens wins 10164-9128, seems like Owens is on path to victory at this point.

YEEEEEEEESSSSS!

Good to know you support QAnon

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Terrible SLC batch for McAdams, Owens wins 10164-9128, seems like Owens is on path to victory at this point.

YEEEEEEEESSSSS!

Good to know you support QAnon

Hilarious! Burgess Owens does not support QAnon Theory! What the hell are u smoking here?

https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2020/10/28/burgess-owens-suggests/

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://www.wktv.com/content/news/Counting-of-absentee-ballots-underway-in-22nd-congressional-district-573033491.html

"Cortland County has finished; 3545 of their absentees went to Brindisi, 1101 to Tenney, and 130 to Libertarian, Keith Price."

Brindisi up 7% overall in the county based on this info, running behind his margin by 4% in 2018. Feels like he needs to run up the score in Broome and Oneida to have a chance, otherwise he'll probably fall a few points short.

Brindisi winning would be a pleasant surprise for Democrats in this awful cycle. With McAdams’ hopes fading, he could be the ”lone survivor” instead.

McAdams is far from finished, but Brindisi winning would be great!

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

OH MY

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1326984680411951104?s=21

AND the AP has "Uncalled" the NJ-7 Congressional Race.

Putting random words IN all caps doesn’t MAKE your post stand OUT.  It just makes YOU sound like an IDIOT.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Real Clear Politics' map has called NY-22 for the Pub.

But why?

B/c they’re Republican hacks

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Brindisi is going to win. INCREDIBLY BASED.

Lone survivor.

LOL, he hasn't won yet!

Tell me how Tenney wins with 25k left out and an 8k vote difference.

Don’t jinx it

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

An update on NY-22. So it looks like every county has finished up their absentee ballots today, except for Chenango and Oneida. Tenney leads by 4,671 votes.

Chenango has 4500 absentee ballots to count: https://www.evesun.com/news/stories/2020-11-12/33924/Chenango-County-starts-counting-mail-in-ballots-as-election-monitors-review-them

Oneida has 5559 left to count: https://cnycentral.com/news/local/tenneys-lead-over-brindisi-narrows-as-absentee-ballots-are-counted-in-ny-22

So ~10K ballots left. Assuming about ~5% go to 3rd parties or undervotes which is the trend so far, Brindisi needs to win the two-party vote by ~75-25 in order to tie. It does seem like the remaining Oneida ballots will be from the rural areas of the county. Chenango should also be relatively favorable to Tenney. It looks like it would be tough for Brindisi to take the lead on absentees alone.

But then we have various scattered provisionals and other ballots which may be more favorable to Brindisi. Altogether, still looks like a pure tossup to me, with maybe a very slight tilt towards Tenney.

everything we've seen in the past day or two seems like a slight tilt towards Brindisi

No, it isn't. Just like bandg & Wasserman said. It's a pure TOSS UP! Wasserman estimated less than 1K either way. Brindisi can win but so can Tenney!

You hope

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

This is insane. There is no excuse for a Democrat losing a race in CA-25.

Commision should probably draw one GOP sink in OC

Nah, trends will sort this out.  Nice try though

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

This is insane. There is no excuse for a Democrat losing a race in CA-25.

We haven't

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

This is insane. There is no excuse for a Democrat losing a race in CA-25.

We haven't

Still wanna make that bet man?

You mean that the race could go either way right now?  Sure, but I don't know how we'd verify it.  I'm just saying it's not over yet and you guys are potentially counting chickens before they've hatched.