State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3

[Hope For A New Era]

Oklahoma State Senate 22 special election today. Bice's old seat. Curious to see the results.

[Hope For A New Era]

Wisconsin SD13 results:

Jagler 51.16
Winker 43.77
Zimmerman 4.55
Schmitz 0.52

D overperformance, and a pretty substantial one. R+7.39 here, while 2018 was R+18.18.

Even if you assign the entire third-party vote to Republicans (ASP would probably split more evenly, but whatever), that's still only R+12.46.

I guess that just goes to show how powerful the Trump-on-the-ballot effect is in Wisconsin.

[Hope For A New Era]

Wisconsin SD13 results:

Jagler 51.16
Winker 43.77
Zimmerman 4.55
Schmitz 0.52

D overperformance, and a pretty substantial one. R+7.39 here, while 2018 was R+18.18.

Even if you assign the entire third-party vote to Republicans (ASP would probably split more evenly, but whatever), that's still only R+12.46.

I guess that just goes to show how powerful the Trump-on-the-ballot effect is in Wisconsin.

It just shows that when the main statewide race features two democrats many republicans voters are simply not going to turn out to the polls. (What a surprise).

Don’t ruin the narrative/disturb the echo chamber.

Okay, explain why 2018 didn't have the extreme-R rural margins of 2016 and 2020 then.

Trump and Obama are the same. They have a large number of low-propensity voters who only show up to vote for their guy.

[Hope For A New Era]

Wisconsin SD13 results:

Jagler 51.16
Winker 43.77
Zimmerman 4.55
Schmitz 0.52

D overperformance, and a pretty substantial one. R+7.39 here, while 2018 was R+18.18.

Even if you assign the entire third-party vote to Republicans (ASP would probably split more evenly, but whatever), that's still only R+12.46.

I guess that just goes to show how powerful the Trump-on-the-ballot effect is in Wisconsin.

It just shows that when the main statewide race features two democrats many republicans voters are simply not going to turn out to the polls. (What a surprise).

Don’t ruin the narrative/disturb the echo chamber.

Okay, explain why 2018 didn't have the extreme-R rural margins of 2016 and 2020 then.

Trump and Obama are the same. They have a large number of low-propensity voters who only show up to vote for their guy.

Which one of these years was a D wave?

2018. I'm saying the reason 2018 was a D wave and 2020 wasn't was Trump being on the ballot, because he brings out thousands upon thousands of low-propensity voters who are otherwise probably not very political at all, or at least not ideological. It's the same reason 2010 and 2014 were R waves while 2012 was sort of a no-wave. Obama brought out low-propensity voters in huge numbers too, and when he was not on the ballot, Dems collapsed.

[Hope For A New Era]

270towin now:

Marty Flynn DEM    29,023    51.57%
Chris Chermak GOP    21,346    37.93%
Marlene Sebastianelli GRE    5,292    9.40%
Nathan Covington LIB    614    1.09%


D+13.64, with a strong Green candidate. That's pretty impressive, especially considering the Green vote. In theory, the "under the surface result" could be as much as D+23, putting it on par with Casey 2018, though I suspect that in reality the newspaper endorsement has created some unusual voting patterns. The true two-party result would probably be something like D+18 or so, if I had to guess.

[Hope For A New Era]

It's a solid result for the Dems, with the greens included it's about 61-39 when giving Libertarians to GOP.

Assuming that all Green voters would have broken for the Democrat is nonsense.

It's not a 50-50 thing with these types, sorry. Not 100% of course but the vast majority absolutely are Biden over Trump and D over R.

The strong Green performance comes from a newspaper endorsement, though. It's an "all politics is local" phenomenon. I don't doubt that a majority of the Green voters are Democrats, but I wouldn't be surprised to see as much as 40% of them normally being Rs. I'm just assuming they split evenly until we know more (that way if they turn out to be strongly D it's a nice surprise later).

[Hope For A New Era]

It looks like we have a D overperformance in SD22 (Biden +9, Flynn +13 with a Green candidate getting 9) and HD59 (Trump +41, Rossi +33), and an R overperformance in SD48 (Trump +20, Gebhard +32) and HD60 (Trump +48, Major +57).

So, here we are with inconclusive special election results. Again.

[Hope For A New Era]

https://twitter.com/DanRShafer/status/1595434685764599808
D-trending seat, but probably still out of reach at this time, Trump+4 in 2020 (I imagine Evers lost it by a similar margin based on the areas.)

Trump +4 seat might be doable with appropriate turnout patterns. Any clear candidates? There is one D state House incumbent who lives in the district, perhaps they would be interested.

[Hope For A New Era]

Better here I guess?

https://twitter.com/MorganTrau/status/1610363875479916545?s=20&t=TwDSRBT0glj...

D"s + Half of R's elect Jason Stephens over Derek Merrin. More info shortly, but might immediately throw a wrench into any attempt at mid-decade redraws under the current state framework.

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1610389655492370435?s=20&t=mJLdhEzbcRc...

Directly related to the 2 soon to be 3 special elections in Allegheny: since D's lack the votes presently to command a majority, they get a good deal to ensure ideal functionality.

2x Combo!

May they be omens.