State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3

[Oryxslayer]

PA-SEN 22

Marty Flynn
DEM
11,084   49.88%

Chris Chermak
GOP
8,608   38.73%

Marlene Sebastianelli
GRE
2,282   10.27%

Nathan Covington
LIB
249   1.12%

4% in, but that Green vote is bizarrely high. Apparently the Scranton Times endorsed them? Why?

https://twitter.com/rudnicknoah/status/1394824670482997255?s=20

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

61% in (PA-SEN 22)
Flynn (D): 46.5%
Chermak (R): 42.9%
Sebastianelli (G): 9.5%
Covington (L): 1.1%

[Wormless Gourd]

https://twitter.com/rudnicknoah/status/1394824670482997255?s=20

I love when local newspapers still have some muscle on these issues, gives me hope.

61% in (PA-SEN 22)
Flynn (D): 46.5%
Chermak (R): 42.9%
Sebastianelli (G): 9.5%
Covington (L): 1.1%

DDHQ has the same numbers saying 74% in. Can't be right, and it seems too close if mail-ins aren't counted yet?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/rudnicknoah/status/1394824670482997255?s=20

I love when local newspapers still have some muscle on these issues, gives me hope.

61% in (PA-SEN 22)
Flynn (D): 46.5%
Chermak (R): 42.9%
Sebastianelli (G): 9.5%
Covington (L): 1.1%

DDHQ has the same numbers saying 74% in. Can't be right, and it seems too close if mail-ins aren't counted yet?

Well I assume the Green voters would normally go Blue, which means its really 56-42. Considering a long-time incumbent only won the general with 61%.

[Devils30]

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1394836455248302080

Seems like we can pencil in a Dem win but lets see about the margin.

[It’s so Joever]

A high single digits Dem win is about what we expected.
Nothing surprising here.

[Mexican Wolf]

Why is the 48th Senate District taking so long to report results? 270towin is still only showing 5,000-some votes counted. Not that I expect anything other than Gebhard winning comfortably, but it would be interesting to see the overall margin.

[lfromnj]

The Green got the endorsement of the local newspaper FWIW.

[Gass3268]

Mail vote just dropped, Flynn up by ~14

[Wormless Gourd]

Lackawanna mails-ins were brutal:

Flynn: 8,413

Chermak: 2,013

[It’s so Joever]

Lackawanna mails-ins were brutal:

Flynn: 8,413

Chermak: 2,013

Holy-

I guess the mail in divide is not going to stop even as Covid dwindles down.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Clements still leading by 13.

[Hope For A New Era]

270towin now:

Marty Flynn DEM    29,023    51.57%
Chris Chermak GOP    21,346    37.93%
Marlene Sebastianelli GRE    5,292    9.40%
Nathan Covington LIB    614    1.09%


D+13.64, with a strong Green candidate. That's pretty impressive, especially considering the Green vote. In theory, the "under the surface result" could be as much as D+23, putting it on par with Casey 2018, though I suspect that in reality the newspaper endorsement has created some unusual voting patterns. The true two-party result would probably be something like D+18 or so, if I had to guess.

[It’s so Joever]

Clements still leading by 13.

That lead should evaporate pretty quickly when more reporting comes.

[Oryxslayer]

270towin now:

Marty Flynn DEM    29,023    51.57%
Chris Chermak GOP    21,346    37.93%
Marlene Sebastianelli GRE    5,292    9.40%
Nathan Covington LIB    614    1.09%


D+13.64, with a strong Green candidate. That's pretty impressive, especially considering the Green vote. In theory, the "under the surface result" could be as much as D+23, putting it on par with Casey 2018, though I suspect that in reality the newspaper endorsement has created some unusual voting patterns. The true two-party result would probably be something like D+18 or so, if I had to guess.

Yeah, at the end of the day this is going to be a result with a MOE. The localist nature of the green candidate means you can't just assume everyone is a federal dem, but it also isn't 50-50. I'm sure a precinct analysis post-election which compares her vote to the Dem/Rep vote will give us a clear answer, but that is a detail which will be lost in the hot takes.

[Devils30]

It's a solid result for the Dems, with the greens included it's about 61-39 when giving Libertarians to GOP.

[MT Treasurer]

It's a solid result for the Dems, with the greens included it's about 61-39 when giving Libertarians to GOP.

Assuming that all Green voters would have broken for the Democrat is nonsense.

[Devils30]

It's a solid result for the Dems, with the greens included it's about 61-39 when giving Libertarians to GOP.

Assuming that all Green voters would have broken for the Democrat is nonsense.

It's not a 50-50 thing with these types, sorry. Not 100% of course but the vast majority absolutely are Biden over Trump and D over R.

[Hope For A New Era]

It's a solid result for the Dems, with the greens included it's about 61-39 when giving Libertarians to GOP.

Assuming that all Green voters would have broken for the Democrat is nonsense.

It's not a 50-50 thing with these types, sorry. Not 100% of course but the vast majority absolutely are Biden over Trump and D over R.

The strong Green performance comes from a newspaper endorsement, though. It's an "all politics is local" phenomenon. I don't doubt that a majority of the Green voters are Democrats, but I wouldn't be surprised to see as much as 40% of them normally being Rs. I'm just assuming they split evenly until we know more (that way if they turn out to be strongly D it's a nice surprise later).

[Matty]

Not sure what thread this goes in, but the 2 amendment curtailing gov emergency powers are up big

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Not sure what thread this goes in, but the 2 amendment curtailing gov emergency powers are up big

Ahaha sometimes I really hate the people in this state.

[PSOL]

“40% R” JFC people, maybe 40% abstention perhaps.

Again, the Green Party *is* seen as culturally to the Left of Democrats, that doesn’t attract a voter pool that is 40% conservative. Why then isn’t the Libertarians getting anything then?

[Hope For A New Era]

It looks like we have a D overperformance in SD22 (Biden +9, Flynn +13 with a Green candidate getting 9) and HD59 (Trump +41, Rossi +33), and an R overperformance in SD48 (Trump +20, Gebhard +32) and HD60 (Trump +48, Major +57).

So, here we are with inconclusive special election results. Again.

[Gass3268]

Not sure what thread this goes in, but the 2 amendment curtailing gov emergency powers are up big

Ahaha sometimes I really hate the people in this state.

I'm not sure it's over yet.

https://twitter.com/BruneElections/status/1394871191739973637?s=20

https://twitter.com/BruneElections/status/1394874435816017920?s=20

Plus not a single mail in vote has been counted in Chester County.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

What's the amendment again?