State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3

[Matty]

Wow, with 20% of the vote in, the dem is leading in SD22, by 3 votes.

909-906

won the early vote by 20%!!

[walleye26]

Winker has a small lead in SD-13, but half of Dane’s precincts are in, and 60% of Waukesha’s.

[Matty]

FWIW, the oklahoma early vote was a total mirage in SD22.

GOP candidate up 63-36 with 55% of vote in.

just amazing

dem won AB/EV 59-41

losing eday by 35 points

[Matty]

https://twitter.com/Blake_Allen13/status/1379613745232687104

[It’s so Joever]

I mean...the OK-22 senate race appears to actually be a Dem over performance relative to...2018.

That’s even if you give the R’a a few extra points this time considering that Bice was an incumbent (and that still matters in local elections)

[Matty]

I mean...the OK-22 senate race appears to actually be a Dem over performance relative to...2018.

That’s even if you give the R’a a few extra points this time considering that Bice was an incumbent (and that still matters in local elections)

Yea, but we are talking margin of error here.

More interesting result is still how huge the EV/ED vote divide is.

that isn't going away.

[It’s so Joever]

I mean...the OK-22 senate race appears to actually be a Dem over performance relative to...2018.

That’s even if you give the R’a a few extra points this time considering that Bice was an incumbent (and that still matters in local elections)

Yea, but we are talking margin of error here.

More interesting result is still how huge the EV/ED vote divide is.

that isn't going away.

Margin of error or not, any over performance or underperformance can’t be brushed off without some extreme circumstances. This isn’t proof of anything obviously, it’s one tiny race, but it’s a datapoint.

[Matty]

I mean...the OK-22 senate race appears to actually be a Dem over performance relative to...2018.

That’s even if you give the R’a a few extra points this time considering that Bice was an incumbent (and that still matters in local elections)

Yea, but we are talking margin of error here.

More interesting result is still how huge the EV/ED vote divide is.

that isn't going away.

Margin of error or not, any over performance or underperformance can’t be brushed off without some extreme circumstances. This isn’t proof of anything obviously, it’s one tiny race, but it’s a datapoint.

I disagree. The average overperformance compared to 2020 results so far in 2021 state-level special elections has been about 2.3 R.

That doesn't mean jack. squat imo.

[It’s so Joever]

I mean...the OK-22 senate race appears to actually be a Dem over performance relative to...2018.

That’s even if you give the R’a a few extra points this time considering that Bice was an incumbent (and that still matters in local elections)

Yea, but we are talking margin of error here.

More interesting result is still how huge the EV/ED vote divide is.

that isn't going away.

Margin of error or not, any over performance or underperformance can’t be brushed off without some extreme circumstances. This isn’t proof of anything obviously, it’s one tiny race, but it’s a datapoint.

I disagree. The average overperformance compared to 2020 results so far in 2021 state-level special elections has been about 2.3 R.

That doesn't mean jack. squat imo.

Yes...yes it does.

[Hope For A New Era]

Wisconsin SD13 results:

Jagler 51.16
Winker 43.77
Zimmerman 4.55
Schmitz 0.52

D overperformance, and a pretty substantial one. R+7.39 here, while 2018 was R+18.18.

Even if you assign the entire third-party vote to Republicans (ASP would probably split more evenly, but whatever), that's still only R+12.46.

I guess that just goes to show how powerful the Trump-on-the-ballot effect is in Wisconsin.

[Pollster]

Piping in here to point out that there are no margins of error in actual election results.

[Meatball Ron]

I mean...the OK-22 senate race appears to actually be a Dem over performance relative to...2018.

That’s even if you give the R’a a few extra points this time considering that Bice was an incumbent (and that still matters in local elections)

Yea, but we are talking margin of error here.

More interesting result is still how huge the EV/ED vote divide is.

that isn't going away.

Margin of error or not, any over performance or underperformance can’t be brushed off without some extreme circumstances. This isn’t proof of anything obviously, it’s one tiny race, but it’s a datapoint.

I disagree. The average overperformance compared to 2020 results so far in 2021 state-level special elections has been about 2.3 R.

That doesn't mean jack. squat imo.

Source on the 2.3 point R over-performance? There is a tracker that circulates on Twitter (I am struggling to find it right now but will edit this post when I do) that most recently showed a slight Democratic over-performance in fact.

[Frenchrepublican]

I mean...the OK-22 senate race appears to actually be a Dem over performance relative to...2018.

That’s even if you give the R’a a few extra points this time considering that Bice was an incumbent (and that still matters in local elections)

Yea, but we are talking margin of error here.

More interesting result is still how huge the EV/ED vote divide is.

that isn't going away.

Margin of error or not, any over performance or underperformance can’t be brushed off without some extreme circumstances. This isn’t proof of anything obviously, it’s one tiny race, but it’s a datapoint.

I disagree. The average overperformance compared to 2020 results so far in 2021 state-level special elections has been about 2.3 R.

That doesn't mean jack. squat imo.

Source on the 2.3 point R over-performance? There is a tracker that circulates on Twitter (I am struggling to find it right now but will edit this post when I do) that most recently showed a slight Democratic over-performance in fact.

Here is the link :

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vf9-VFavJ3lyYsSrKX1ECuP5DyVlegDtG-UJLpQvh7s/edit#gid=702358838

[Meatball Ron]

I mean...the OK-22 senate race appears to actually be a Dem over performance relative to...2018.

That’s even if you give the R’a a few extra points this time considering that Bice was an incumbent (and that still matters in local elections)

Yea, but we are talking margin of error here.

More interesting result is still how huge the EV/ED vote divide is.

that isn't going away.

Margin of error or not, any over performance or underperformance can’t be brushed off without some extreme circumstances. This isn’t proof of anything obviously, it’s one tiny race, but it’s a datapoint.

I disagree. The average overperformance compared to 2020 results so far in 2021 state-level special elections has been about 2.3 R.

That doesn't mean jack. squat imo.

Source on the 2.3 point R over-performance? There is a tracker that circulates on Twitter (I am struggling to find it right now but will edit this post when I do) that most recently showed a slight Democratic over-performance in fact.

Here is the link :

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vf9-VFavJ3lyYsSrKX1ECuP5DyVlegDtG-UJLpQvh7s/edit#gid=702358838

Thank you!

So yes - slight Democratic overperformance. Nothing we can read into I suspect.

Edit: ah, I am noticing these calcs are based on 2016 numbers. An overperformance of Clinton may not translate to an overperformance of Biden, since Biden did better than Clinton. The tracker circulating on Twitter that I was referring to I *believe* had mostly Biden 2020 #s and only calculated swing for races for which 2020 data was available.

[Frenchrepublican]

Wisconsin SD13 results:

Jagler 51.16
Winker 43.77
Zimmerman 4.55
Schmitz 0.52

D overperformance, and a pretty substantial one. R+7.39 here, while 2018 was R+18.18.

Even if you assign the entire third-party vote to Republicans (ASP would probably split more evenly, but whatever), that's still only R+12.46.

I guess that just goes to show how powerful the Trump-on-the-ballot effect is in Wisconsin.

It just shows that when the main statewide race features two democrats many republicans voters are simply not going to turn out to the polls. (What a surprise).

[MT Treasurer]

Wisconsin SD13 results:

Jagler 51.16
Winker 43.77
Zimmerman 4.55
Schmitz 0.52

D overperformance, and a pretty substantial one. R+7.39 here, while 2018 was R+18.18.

Even if you assign the entire third-party vote to Republicans (ASP would probably split more evenly, but whatever), that's still only R+12.46.

I guess that just goes to show how powerful the Trump-on-the-ballot effect is in Wisconsin.

It just shows that when the main statewide race features two democrats many republicans voters are simply not going to turn out to the polls. (What a surprise).

Don’t ruin the narrative/disturb the echo chamber.

[It’s so Joever]

Blue Avs if this was a Republican over performance would be talking about how this is a terrible sign for Dems in the midterms and how the House will certainly flip (which it will but I digress)
Now that it’s a Dem over performance, they chose to ignore the data? Y’all are falling into the Atlas Dem trap of 2020 where all polls that showed Biden/Dems not doing great were “junk” for some reason.
Go ahead, I personally would rather it be on your side anyways lmao.

[Matty]

Blue Avs if this was a Republican over performance would be talking about how this is a terrible sign for Dems in the midterms and how the House will certainly flip (which it will but I digress)
Now that it’s a Dem over performance, they chose to ignore the data? Y’all are falling into the Atlas Dem trap of 2020 where all polls that showed Biden/Dems not doing great were “junk” for some reason.
Go ahead, I personally would rather it be on your side anyways lmao.

We have 100+ years of data showing that the party out of power does well in house midterm elections

Senate and gubernatorial more mixed

Repubs need to flip like 5 seats in 2022. That is incredibly easy and should be a layup with good recruiting.

As Harry enten and others have said, out of power parties gaining house seats in midterm races is almost as predictable as the sun rising in the east.

It repubs can’t flip 5 seats, then they deserve a leadership-cleansing.

[It’s so Joever]

Blue Avs if this was a Republican over performance would be talking about how this is a terrible sign for Dems in the midterms and how the House will certainly flip (which it will but I digress)
Now that it’s a Dem over performance, they chose to ignore the data? Y’all are falling into the Atlas Dem trap of 2020 where all polls that showed Biden/Dems not doing great were “junk” for some reason.
Go ahead, I personally would rather it be on your side anyways lmao.

We have 100+ years of data showing that the party out of power does well in house midterm elections

Senate and gubernatorial more mixed

Repubs need to flip like 5 seats in 2022. That is incredibly easy and should be a layup with good recruiting.

As Harry enten and others have said, out of power parties gaining house seats in midterm races is almost as predictable as the sun rising in the east.

It repubs can’t flip 5 seats, then they deserve a leadership-cleansing.

I'm not f[inks]ing arguing that. You do realize I am a proud Doomercrat, right?
But again, you are falling into the spiral Atlas Dems fell into pre-2020 a bit, although you probably will not suffer as much embarrassment because 2022 will be good for the gop, your logic that we can just cherrypick data is bull- and only will work in very partisan years.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Okay. Here are the upcoming elections:

April 13: New Hampshire House, D-21
April 13: Connecticut House, D-112

[It’s so Joever]

Oh, I forgot to mention, it appears that the WI-89 election which also took place that day was pretty good for Democrats. Although incumbency explains some stuff, we did have our best election in that district since 2012.
Will be interesting to watch the next two specials on the 13th.

[Hope For A New Era]

Wisconsin SD13 results:

Jagler 51.16
Winker 43.77
Zimmerman 4.55
Schmitz 0.52

D overperformance, and a pretty substantial one. R+7.39 here, while 2018 was R+18.18.

Even if you assign the entire third-party vote to Republicans (ASP would probably split more evenly, but whatever), that's still only R+12.46.

I guess that just goes to show how powerful the Trump-on-the-ballot effect is in Wisconsin.

It just shows that when the main statewide race features two democrats many republicans voters are simply not going to turn out to the polls. (What a surprise).

Don’t ruin the narrative/disturb the echo chamber.

Okay, explain why 2018 didn't have the extreme-R rural margins of 2016 and 2020 then.

Trump and Obama are the same. They have a large number of low-propensity voters who only show up to vote for their guy.

[It’s so Joever]

Wisconsin SD13 results:

Jagler 51.16
Winker 43.77
Zimmerman 4.55
Schmitz 0.52

D overperformance, and a pretty substantial one. R+7.39 here, while 2018 was R+18.18.

Even if you assign the entire third-party vote to Republicans (ASP would probably split more evenly, but whatever), that's still only R+12.46.

I guess that just goes to show how powerful the Trump-on-the-ballot effect is in Wisconsin.

It just shows that when the main statewide race features two democrats many republicans voters are simply not going to turn out to the polls. (What a surprise).

Don’t ruin the narrative/disturb the echo chamber.

Okay, explain why 2018 didn't have the extreme-R rural margins of 2016 and 2020 then.

Trump and Obama are the same. They have a large number of low-propensity voters who only show up to vote for their guy.

Which one of these years was a D wave?

[Hope For A New Era]

Wisconsin SD13 results:

Jagler 51.16
Winker 43.77
Zimmerman 4.55
Schmitz 0.52

D overperformance, and a pretty substantial one. R+7.39 here, while 2018 was R+18.18.

Even if you assign the entire third-party vote to Republicans (ASP would probably split more evenly, but whatever), that's still only R+12.46.

I guess that just goes to show how powerful the Trump-on-the-ballot effect is in Wisconsin.

It just shows that when the main statewide race features two democrats many republicans voters are simply not going to turn out to the polls. (What a surprise).

Don’t ruin the narrative/disturb the echo chamber.

Okay, explain why 2018 didn't have the extreme-R rural margins of 2016 and 2020 then.

Trump and Obama are the same. They have a large number of low-propensity voters who only show up to vote for their guy.

Which one of these years was a D wave?

2018. I'm saying the reason 2018 was a D wave and 2020 wasn't was Trump being on the ballot, because he brings out thousands upon thousands of low-propensity voters who are otherwise probably not very political at all, or at least not ideological. It's the same reason 2010 and 2014 were R waves while 2012 was sort of a no-wave. Obama brought out low-propensity voters in huge numbers too, and when he was not on the ballot, Dems collapsed.

[free my dawg]

I hope IndyRep doesn't mind me hijacking his thread. NH state rep election. Quickly D-trending suburb with a history of voting R.