Swedish election 2010

[Gustaf]

An exceedingly stupid comment, even by the standards of that place. In a British context 'Swedish Social Democracy' usually means 'the fact that Sweden has a welfare system similar to Britain's but far more extensive', so, yeah. That's unlikely to change no matter the election result, and neither will the position of the Social Democrats as one of the strongest social democratic parties in Europe. Obviously it would be sad if the record of always being the largest party ends, but that record is deceptive anyway (due to the now historical fragmentation of the Right), and in any case it would only mean the end of a record, not the end of the party that made it. The SPÖ is doing alright (certainly in comparison to most sister parties), despite losing its pretty impressive record in 2002.

3. The era of Swedish Social Democracy as we used to know it is over.

Indeed it is. However, this has been the case for about two decades or so now (although you could go even further back, I suppose, but the early nineties is the usual time cited in academic works).

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Also true, but, again, this is not new. What is new is that the methods of dealing with this long-term crisis (which dates from different times in different countries, but is over two decades in all) have recently been exposed as flawed and perhaps even ultimately damaging (the latter point is especially true in the case of the SPD, of course).

For those that doubt that there's a general crisis, consider this. No matter how badly the Social Democrats do, the percentage of the vote they will win will be one of the highest polled recently by any social democratic party in Europe outside certain extremely polarised countries in the South with only a recent-ish history of democratic elections (and which can't be usefully compared in this way with the rest of Europe for those reasons). This was also the case with Labour in Britain earlier in the year.

But I stress again that the problem is the same as it was when it first manifested itself in the 70s and 80s (and a little later in Scandinavia, of course). And that problem is the old one, the same problem that caused so much concern to early generations of revisionist socialists, going all the way back to Bernstein. And his solutions were flawed as well.

It's true that it isn't really new (what ever is?). But still, it hasn't been realized and accepted in Sweden and especially not within the SAP until now.

This election is the first where the SAP has admitted that they will not have an own majority. 4 years ago they campaigned on forming a government on their own, as they have always done in the past.

In 1991 they finished below 40% for the first time ever. That was followed by the 1994 landslide, and then the 1998 debacle. Then a rebound in 2002. And then the 2006 disaster. The SAP has not actually broken 40% since 1994, but they thought they would. Now they might not break 30%. That marks a change. Also, the fact that they're doing this badly even though the economy is in the state it is in is remarkable.

Finally, and this may not be obvious to a non-Swede, the psychological effect of the SAP not being the biggest party anymore is monumental. It cannot be described in words. The historical fragmentation of the right and the consequences of it are deeply, deeply entrenched in the identity of the SAP.

The crisis for European Social Democracy is, imo, fairly new in the sense that they were in government in most EU countries only a decade or so ago. Now they're generally doing horribly, for various and interesting reasons. The left used to be formed around social democracy and that probably won't be the case in the future, which is interesting.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's true that it isn't really new (what ever is?). But still, it hasn't been realized and accepted in Sweden and especially not within the SAP until now.

I'm not denying the existence of political change in Sweden or anywhere else. Just taking issue with an exceptionally stupid comment (presuming that it was written from a British point of view; although I suspect that there will be many more stupid comment pieces in British newspapers following its general tone if the election goes a certain way) and using it as a springboard for wider rambling. I tend to find long term change more interesting than milestones, particularly as the latter tend to lend themselves to foolish long term predictions based on either wishful thinking or depression.

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No, I think I understand. When Labour failed to top the poll in the last European Elections in Wales, there was a lot of fuss made along those general lines. And that was just in a low turnout election that no one actually cares much about; had a similar thing happened in the General Election (Labour ended up 'winning' Wales by 10pts, so, yeah) I can only imagine the handwringing within the Party and the gloating outside it. But it's symbolic. A symptom and a milestone, but not a cause or a portent.

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Of course it is. And if the SAP fail to top the poll, then there will be profound changes in the internal culture of the SAP. No doubting that. But it won't be the end of anything. To bring up another example; the Socialists were 'defeated' for the first time in God knows how long in Wallonia in 2007. And topped the poll by miles this year. Milestones are not insignificant, but neither are they predictive.

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Yes, but the manner in which those governments were elected (and the way in which they governed) was symptomatic of the crisis. I suspect that this was less obvious in Sweden than most places.

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I don't see any reason to assume that. But that's a different issue, I think.

Of course, revisionist socialism is doing a lot better than certain other 'traditional' ideologies. Christian Democracy is almost dead as anything more than a brand name for unambiguously Conservative organisations.

[Gustaf]

I'm talking less about ideology per se (such as reformist socialism) and more about instutional structure. The left in Northern Europe has been synonymous with a large social democratic party with certain connotations. I personally doubt whether that will be the case in the future.

And SAP's identity as the biggest party is very much a part of their ideology. People vote for them based on that image, to a certain extent.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm talking less about ideology per se (such as reformist socialism) and more about instutional structure.

But in this case the ideology and the institutions are linked at a fairly fundamental level. A crisis in one has always led to a crisis in the other. Some of the solutions seem to me to be quite obvious, but institutional inertia is what it is, I suppose.

[Gustaf]

V-party apparently hosted a show including a stripper, which has been criticized. A leading V-politicians defends it though, saying: "there was also a naked man who threw knives and spat apples over the audience. Most people laughed and found it funny"

If anyone needed more evidence that V is a bit unhinged...

[Хahar 🤔]

Canadian Liberals are an utter embarassment and in the last 10 years or more have just gotten consistently less and less successful.

The Liberal Party is a liberal party and more importantly a government party, and it is doing what government parties do when in opposition, which is not very much.

[Gustaf]

New poll by Synovate, historically the second-best pollster in Sweden:

M: 30.6%
S: 28.5%
SD: 7.5%
FP: 7.2%
MP: 7.2%
C: 6.2%
KD: 5.7%
V: 5.2%

Blue: 49.8%
Redgreen: 40.9%

SD: 7.5%

Margin: 8.9%

Margin for majority: 1.4%

It's looking more and more like the excitement will be about the government getting an own majority or not.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

New poll by Synovate, historically the second-best pollster in Sweden:

M: 30.6%
S: 28.5%
SD: 7.5%
FP: 7.2%
MP: 7.2%
C: 6.2%
KD: 5.7%
V: 5.2%

Blue: 49.8%
Redgreen: 40.9%

SD: 7.5%

Margin: 8.9%

Margin for majority: 1.4%

It's looking more and more like the excitement will be about the government getting an own majority or not.

Sd's numbers are surprising. Not because I think they couldn't actually get these numbers in the actual election, but since they have a tendancy to underpoll. I feel very confused.

Is it possible that the pollsters (who I'm sure are aware of the shy-sd factor) is adjusting their results to show a more accurate picture of Sd's actual numbers? Or has the shame factor started to fade away, and people dare to be more open about their support for them? (Seems very unlikely to me)

Or should we be worried that Sd will actually get some insane result like 9-10%?

[Gustaf]

New poll by Synovate, historically the second-best pollster in Sweden:

M: 30.6%
S: 28.5%
SD: 7.5%
FP: 7.2%
MP: 7.2%
C: 6.2%
KD: 5.7%
V: 5.2%

Blue: 49.8%
Redgreen: 40.9%

SD: 7.5%

Margin: 8.9%

Margin for majority: 1.4%

It's looking more and more like the excitement will be about the government getting an own majority or not.

Sd's numbers are surprising. Not because I think they couldn't actually get these numbers in the actual election, but since they have a tendancy to underpoll. I feel very confused.

Is it possible that the pollsters (who I'm sure are aware of the shy-sd factor) is adjusting their results to show a more accurate picture of Sd's actual numbers? Or has the shame factor started to fade away, and people dare to be more open about their support for them? (Seems very unlikely to me)

Or should we be worried that Sd will actually get some insane result like 9-10%?

I don't think there is any adjustment going on but the underpolling may be less than you think. Also, I still suspect that this poll might be a bit of an outlier upwards for SD. Until I see confirmation from other pollsters I will be inclined to think they're rather around 6% or so. Which is still pretty high, of course.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You should never assume underpolling as if it were fact (hard to do in certain cases, I know). Keep it in mind, yes, absolutely. But only in the way that you should keep in mind the possibility of the polls being 'wrong' generally.

[Gustaf]

You should never assume underpolling as if it were fact (hard to do in certain cases, I know). Keep it in mind, yes, absolutely. But only in the way that you should keep in mind the possibility of the polls being 'wrong' generally.

Yeah, that's basically what I'm thinking too.

In other news, when the redgreen leaders were questioned on prime time television today, V-leader Lars Ohly decided to propose to his girlfriend for some reason. Kind of weird.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Alright, sounds reasonable. Be aware of the possibility of underpolling, but don't take it as fact.

Kind of weird.

It's V, what did you expect?
I still think it's funny how they ruined it by cutting him off.

I have to say I'm starting to feel a bit sorry for Sahlin. If these results stand on election night everyone will have something to celebrate but her.

The Alliance will be celebrating earning a majority. The Greens will be celebrating their best election result so far. Sd will be celebrating entering parliament, and even Lars Ohly will have his upcoming wedding to celebrate. Sahlin just have her upcoming beheading.

[Gustaf]

The Social Democrats leaked an internal poll showing them only 2% behind the government.

Problem? Once it got out the pollster responsible for the poll said that it wasn't done correctly and didn't actually reflect the real opinion.

Watching the final debate right now. Reinfeldt is doing well, Wetterstrand and Olofsson worse, imo.

Final remarks now:

Wetterstrand first.

[Gustaf]

Very traditional Green speech. Surprising, to be honest. Bit of a letdown.

Very emotional Ohly-speech now about poor children.

[Gustaf]

Hägglund now. A little bit bland, imo. He pushes their traditional lines about a more human compassionate Sweden with stronger focus on associations.

Now Sahlin.

[Gustaf]

She does the tired old "we want to spend on x,y,z and not cut taxes".

[Gustaf]

Björklund goes ideology lecture. All right, but not fantastic.

[Gustaf]

Reinfeldt does jobs and safety. Solid.

[Gustaf]

Olofsson surprisingly good. Future and youth and all that jazz.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Olofsson surprisingly good. Future and youth and all that jazz.

What do you mean surprisingly? She's always good


The winner of this debate was clearly Björklund. I found him to be the best at channeling the Alliance's policies in a way that's attractive to the middle-voter, and was the best at defending himself from the red-green attacks.

The Alliance won this one with a slight advantage. (In difference to yesterdays debate, where I thought Red-greens actually came out looking stronger) Looking forward to see what effects this will have on the oppinion.

[Tender Branson]

Why was this not mentioned yet ?

http://www.youtube.com/user/SDReklam2010#p/a/u/2/XkRRdth8AHc

The Swedish TV4 actually censored the race between the old woman and the breeding burqa-crowd ...

(Not that I can say its different here: The courts also banned the Anti-Minaret game by the FPÖ recently.)

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

I didn't know you were an Alliance supporter Tender.

The Swedish TV4 actually censored the race between the old woman and the breeding burqa-crowd ...

Yeah it's absolutly rediculus. TV4 is a private company, so they didn't have to let the Sweden Democrats buy  any commercial time in the first place if they didn't want them to. Rejecting the commercial afterwards and then censor it is just stupid. It creates an unnecessary contreversy that just gives Sd attention and pity, and plays right into the picture they're trying to paint of themselves as the victim of the undemocratic establishment parties and media.

The courts have the power to censor in Austria? The only thing the State has right censor in Sweden is cinema, so if TV4 had given it an OK they could have gone ahead and sent it. 

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Also the last Sifo poll before the election has been presented. The Red-greens seem to be winning some ground again (for the first time in a long time) which gives them a bit of hope. Still a lead for the goverment with 4,6% though

Alliance: 49,9%

M: 30,0%
Kd: 6,5%
Fp: 6,8%
C: 6,6%

Red-greens: 45,3%

S: 30,3%
Mp: 9,7%
V: 5,3%

Sweden Democrats:  3,8%

[Gustaf]

Smaller lead for government in United Minds, larger in Synovate and Demoskop.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Alright here's my official Election Prediction

Alliance: 49,9%

M: 30,1%
Kd: 5,6%
Fp: 8,1%
C: 6,1%

Red-Greens - 43,0%

S: 28,7%
Mp: 9,2%
V: 5,1%

Sweden Democrats - 6,1%

Others: 1,4%

What do you guys think?