Swedish election 2010

[Gustaf]

How well will the Pirate Party do?

Not well enough that anyone will care, is probably the correct answer. Others overall does not have more than 1-2% so PP cannot have more than that currently.

[Gustaf]

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He sounds like Carl-Jan Grankvist... kind of looks like him too. Any relation?

How well will the Pirate Party do?

Depending on how well they're able to get the WOW-players to leave their computers and turn out to vote, between 0,5-1,5% of the vote maybe. I wouldn't mind it if they could steal some of the Sweden Democrats voters like they did in the European elections, thus causing them to fail to break 4%.

 

 

Not that I know of! He doesn't sound like that normally though.

[Gustaf]

The opposition has decided to make wise adjustments to their policies on property taxes. Too bad that they just seem to confuse people more when talking about it.

[Gustaf]

New poll from Synovate (2nd best pollster in Sweden):

S: 31.3%
M: 29.3%
MP: 10.8%
FP: 7.4%
KD: 5.9%
C: 5.1%
V: 4.4%
SD: 3.6%

Blue bloc: 47.8%
Red-Green bloc: 46.6%

Notable things: SD below 4%, S biggest party again, the government losing a little bit of ground. We will have to wait to see whether this is a trend of any sort.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

I was just thinking about posting that poll.

Sd's numbers in this poll surprise me, as does V's numbers. If there's really been a decrease in their support I'm curious to know what might have caused that.

I'm still pretty confident. There's a big number of people that claim to be unsure, so a lot will be decided by the last weeks of campaigning, and I think the Alliance has an advantage there.

Gustaf, do you know if there's a site or something where I can see the pollsters final polls for the 2006 election. I'd like to know how close each pollster was.

And as I'm curious, which pollster do you consider to be best, if Synovate is 2nd?

[Gustaf]

I was just thinking about posting that poll.

Sd's numbers in this poll surprise me, as does V's numbers. If there's really been a decrease in their support I'm curious to know what might have caused that.

I'm still pretty confident. There's a big number of people that claim to be unsure, so a lot will be decided by the last weeks of campaigning, and I think the Alliance has an advantage there.

Gustaf, do you know if there's a site or something where I can see the pollsters final polls for the 2006 election. I'd like to know how close each pollster was.

And as I'm curious, which pollster do you consider to be best, if Synovate is 2nd?

Sifo is best. Synovate is second, as noted. Those two are the reliable ones in my opinion. Demoskop and Skop have been around for a while, they used to really suck, but are getting better with time. Novus seems ok, but they don't really have much of a track record.

Note, that Sifo is not the best every single election but they consistently do pretty well (I think 2002 might be an exception, but many did badly there).

For instance, Sifo was the only pollster, IIRC, to get the euro referendum down correctly.

[Gustaf]

Batjlan (might be misspelled), second-in-commans for S in Stockholm has admitted to being the person responsible for the butler idea. He maintained that it was a stroke of genius (yes, he himself called his own, pathetically stupid, idea ingenious).

Meanwhile, the shadow finance minister, Thomas Östros, has called the proposal a postmodernist irony and added that it won't go very far.

In other news, a couple of low ranking trade unionist/S-politicians (yes, it is usually the same thing) have been arrested for bringing prostitutes to their trade union financed apartements. And one of them refuses to drop his candidacy, according to a tabloid front page yesterday.

In even more other news a low-ranking civil servant/member of government party (FP) (also usually the same thing) has been found to have compared islam to national socialism on his blog 4 years ago before he was hired. Two pieces of important election news for y'all.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

New Sifo poll

Alliance: 51,5% !!!!

M: 32,1%
Kd: 5,8%
Fp: 7,8
C: 5,8%

Red-Greens: 43,9%

S: 30,1%
Mp: 7,9%
V: 5,9%

Sweden Democrats: 3,7%

The only disappionting thing with this poll is that it's probably too good to be true. Sd's support is probably still quite a bit higher than 3,7%. But I can still dream of an election result like this, can't I?

What surprises me is Mp only getting 7,9%, thus only beating Fp with 0,1% for third biggest party.   
 

[Gustaf]

Even if SD gets in, it doesn't matter with this result. It is probably my dream result, to be honest. And I would like it noted that I hailed Sifo as the best pollster before this poll came out!

[Gustaf]

There has been a debate on whether to test pupils for drugs (whether schools should be allowed to do it against the will of a pupil, basically).

As part of an interview relating to that, a team of journalists asked the minister of justice and the shadow minister of justice whether they would agree to a drug test. Both said yes, although the shadow minister, Thomas Bodström, seemed a bit nervous. When told what substances would be tested for he immiediately changed his mind and said he didn't feel like it because he was too sweaty.

I don't know what to say beyond "lol"

[Gustaf]

Breaking news: most millionaires support M in completely unscientific poll of 1 500 millionaires made by a magazine for millionaires.

M: 78%
FP: 7%
KD: 6%
C: 2.5%
SD: 1.9%
MP: 1.2%
S: 1.2%
Others: 0.8%
V: 0.3%
PP: 0.2%
FI: 0.1%

In other news, media is ignoring Bodström's use of illegal drugs and the government wants to cut VAT for restaurants.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Evidently the Swedish media aren't quite as laughably hypocritical as ours.

[Gustaf]

New Synovate poll:

M: 30.9%
S: 29.2%
MP: 9.7%
FP: 6.7%
V: 6.1%
KD: 5.7%
C: 5.4%

SD: 3.4%

Blue: 48.7%
Redgreen: 45.0%

Margin for government: +3.7%

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

I thought the Swedish SDP has finished first in every election since like ever.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I thought the Swedish SDP has finished first in every election since like ever.

They have but they used to do quite a bit better than c. 30% and conservative voters were usually dispersed across multiple parties.

[Gustaf]

I thought the Swedish SDP has finished first in every election since like ever.

They have but they used to do quite a bit better than c. 30% and conservative voters were usually dispersed across multiple parties.

I believe they have been the biggest party ever since universal suffrage was introduced. This could be the historic election where that ends. I sort of doubt it, I still think they will eke out M in the end (M has a history of fizzling as the election draws near).

To put this in perspective, last election, where S got 35% was viewed as a historic defeat of epic proportions and was the worse result ever for them.

Now they're polling below 30% in many polls...

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swedish_general_election,_September_1914 First time since 1914 if the polls hold up.

Exciting time to be an "M" in Sweden.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Yet another Sifo poll out. A small decrease since last week for the goverment, but they still have support by more than 50% and a 6,7% lead over the Red-Greens.

I'm feeling very hopeful. The side that have won in Sifo's August polls has almost always won on election day as well.

 

[Gustaf]

Yes, this is a very, very good sign for the government. Either Sifo has really messed up or the election is over, imo.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

...or the election is over.

Now don't take anything out in advance, the Red-Greens thought the election was over in 2008 (some of them even earlier) and that's what did them in. 

For those intrested in exact numbers:

Alliance: 50,0%

M: 33,0%
Kd: 5,5%
Fp: 6,2%
C:5,3

Red-Greens: 43,3%

S: 30,8%
Mp: 7,6%
V: 4,9%

Sweden Democrats: 4,6%

 

[Gustaf]

More polls out today. But first, the opposition presented their manifesto. Kind of a dud, if you ask me. The centrepiece, apart from agreeing with most of the stuff the government has done, seems to be lowering the maximum fee to pay for child care. Proposing this is by many believed to have won the 1998 election for the left, so I guess it makes sense to go further with it. It is basically good for people who have decent incomes and lots of children, soccer moms in American terminology, sort of. We're still not seeing any unified policies from the opposition on a host of issues though, like what kind of wealth tax they want, what they will do with immigration or law and order issues, etc. 

Now, for the polls:

Skop:

M: 31.6%
S: 30.0%
MP: 8.9%
FP: 7.9%
V: 5.9%
KD: 5.2%
C: 5.1%

Blue: 49.8%
Redgreen: 44.8%

SD: 3.7%

United Minds:


M: 29.3%
S: 27.3%
MP: 10.7%
FP: 8.2%
V: 6.4%
KD: 6.4%
C: 4.2%

Blue: 48.1%
Redgreen: 44.4%

SD: 5.6%

[Gustaf]

Average of last polls:

Blue: 49.1%
Redgreen: 44.44%

Margin: +4.66%

SD: 4.4%

Margin for own majority: +0.26%

Even if the government is beginning to look like a good bet for reelection the big issue might be whether they can get an own majority now.

[Gustaf]

...and yet another poll. Novus this time. Basically, no changes.

M: 31.8%
S: 30.3%
MP: 8.9%
FP: 7.2%
C: 5.4%
V: 5.2%
KD: 4.6%

Blue: 49%
Redgreen: 44.4%


Margin: 4.6%

SD: 4.7%

Margin for majority: -0.1%

[Gustaf]

Government loses ground in new Synovate poll. Maybe we're not out of the woods yet.

Blue: 47.6%
Redgreen: 45.8%

SD: 4.4%

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Government loses ground in new Synovate poll. Maybe we're not out of the woods yet.

Blue: 47.6%
Redgreen: 45.8%

SD: 4.4%

We're not out of the woods until September 19th.

The real intresting poll will be Sifo's poll on Sunday. Reinfeldt had a really tough interview yesterday, the Red-Greens introduced their platform and gave a lot of populist election promises. If they're going to turn things over in their favour it's going to be now. I think Sahlin herself said, this is it, we have nothing more. If this doesn't put the Red-Greens back in the game, they're over.