Swedish election 2010

[Tender Branson]

2 out of 5668 precincts already reporting.

Turnout seems to be higher than in 2006, maybe 85% or so.

http://www.val.se/val/val2010/valnatt/R/rike/index.html

[minionofmidas]

Do you even understand Swedish Tender?

No, but the Sweden Democrats @ only 4.6% !!!

And the Social Democrats are the strongest party.

Hung parliament despite SD not underpolling massively? SD* certain to be largest party? I'll take it. It's the most we could realistically hope for by the last week.

*the other SD.

[Tender Branson]

Is there a tendency for SD voters to "lie" in Exit polls just like FPÖ voters normally do here or are Exit polls in Sweden fairly accurate ?

[Tender Branson]

The early results indicate a doubling of support for the SD, which would project a final result of around 6% Sweden-wide.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

They do, but it's still a little early. Party change numbers have been bouncing all over the place.

[Tender Branson]

2% of the precincts counted.

SD still at 7%, but I guess most of these early stuff is coming from the South, where the SD is stronger. Once Stockholm comes in, their support will go down steadily.

[minionofmidas]

Close to 10% reporting now. SD still at 7.1% (but was 7.6% at one point). They polled 3.9% in 2006 across the precincts in now, if I understand this right.

[Tender Branson]

Close to 10% reporting now. SD still at 7.1% (but was 7.6% at one point). They polled 3.9% in 2006 across the precincts in now, if I understand this right.

This would mean about 5.4% if trends continue.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Regional differences in vote change seem to be quite sharp for most parties, fwiw. Better not predict from what's in so far, unless you are very good at complicated maths.

[minionofmidas]

The areas in so far are good for S, SD and especially C, bad for MP and M. (Hilariously, they are representative in the coalitional horserace department.) I'm sensing an alphabetical conspiracy.

[Tender Branson]

The most people eligible to vote are in Stockholms län, Stockholms kommun, Göteborgs kommun and Östergötlands län. These regions also have lower counting rates than other regions so far.

And in these regions, the SD is at only 4.7%, 3.5%, 4.5% and 5.1% so far.

I predict that the SD will be somewhere between 5.0-5.5% after everything is counted.

[minionofmidas]

Just from the swings in the areas in yet, M might very well end up the largest party.

[Tender Branson]

Just from the swings in the areas in yet, M might very well end up the largest party.

Yes, I also thought about that.

[Tender Branson]

SD will soon be overtaken by FP and MP ...

[minionofmidas]

First province, Örebrö is 50% in.

[Tender Branson]

Final turnout might be somewhere around 83.5%

[Tender Branson]

Soon there will be no province anymore with the SD above 10% ...

[minionofmidas]

SD will soon be overtaken by FP and MP ...

Has happened now.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Things are looking pretty promising so far. Sd's numbers are unfortunate, but not unexpected. According to Svt is only 3 seats from majority

[jeron]

Is 49% enough for the Alliance for a majority? It must be very close.

It might be. Right now it's too close to call.

[Tender Branson]

Wow, the race for 1st place will start to get really funny.

According to trends, both big parties would end up with about 30.5% of the vote now.

[Tender Branson]

I can almost for sure say now that the TV4 exit poll was crap.

[minionofmidas]

Areas in starting to resemble the actual result, with no party off by more than one percentage point. Though Center and Social Democrat areas still overrepresented.

[jeron]

Wow, the race for 1st place will start to get really funny.

According to trends, both big parties would end up with about 30.5% of the vote now.

Which might mean that they will have to govern together.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

I can almost for sure say now that the TV4 exit poll was crap.

It's TV4, no one is surprised.