UK General Discussion: Rishecession

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https://mobile.twitter.com/RoyalFamily/status/1567928275913121792?ref_src=twsrc%...

RIP

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Its basically your classical supply side economics budget.  Problem is while supply side economics was super popular in 80s, its not now as has been tried in enough places and the results are not like those pushing it claim.  Tax cuts mainly aimed at wealthy don't lead to growth.  Kansas experiment, Reagan tax cuts, Bush tax cuts, and Trump more recently largely show this. 

The bottom rate cut which was more expensive may help in that lower income tend to spend most although timing may be not best.  But Labour smart to say will keep it.  Scrapping additional rate won't cost a lot of money, but rational for it is weak.  Cutting additional rate from 50% to 45% as George Osborne did had some logic as UK was still in EU then and 50% is on high side although not highest and worry was might drive away some high earners.  But UK is no longer in EU so that risk less and most countries in EU are either close to or over 45% and those under are mostly in Eastern Europe where average wages a lot lower so any savings on tax cuts more than offset of lower wages.

California's high top marginal rates has lead to many leaving, but Canada has just as high and is not seeing mass exodus.  Reason is US is a country with free mobility, while Canada is a separate one.  So since UK does not have free mobility with anyone save Ireland thus rational gone.  And besides looks totally tone deaf.

On corporate taxes, yes Ireland shows low corporate taxes can work.  But UK is a lot larger and is more comparable to France & Germany who have corporate tax rates of 25% and 29% so I would argue being a member of EU does far more to encourage businesses to locate there even if corporate taxes slightly higher. 

Finally it is all deficit financed and I learned in my university economics deficit financed tax cuts don't stimulate more investment as most investors price in that higher deficits mean higher taxes down the road so already priced in.  A lot instead probably going on idea Labour will win at some point and with massive deficit, taxes will go up.

Reagan Tax Cuts did work but there still is a major difference between doing them in the 1980s and now. Tax Rates were much higher when Reagan took office so the economic effect of them were greater than doing them now.

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https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1575526882853810192?s=20&t=oL38wgG...

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If Truss is Campbell, who is Manning

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Wonder if there is a way via strategic voting to end up with LD as the opposition party.

Seeing the SNP as the official opposition would be hilarious too. Canada 1993

Who would be Preston Manning here though cause you need that to make 1993 work as well

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This is 1995-96 level bad now:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1997_United_Kingdom_general_election#1995

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Braverman wants to make cannabis a Class A drug, apparently - apart from anything else I can't see our self declared "libertarian" PM running with this really.

And if Truss is the Tory Corbyn, what does that make Sue Ellen - their Chris Williamson?

A combination of the electability of Corbyn, the electoral skills of Michael Foot, and the level-headed, in step with the public political views of Zara Sultana.

I mean Major lost worse than either Foot or Corbyn did and really no party in the post war period has been in worse shape than the Tories worse from like 97-05(if you want to include the years when Major was PM then 94-05)

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https://twitter.com/ed_miliband/status/1580931307185401856?s=46&t=YHSGup5mOz...

Took a fair amount of restraint to hold off playing that card til now. 

He did it in May of 2019 too:

https://inews.co.uk/news/brexit/ed-miliband-changes-his-twitter-name-to-mock-chaos-in-the-tory-party-295287

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Keep in mind Labour had a 39.5 point lead in early 1996:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1997_United_Kingdom_general_election#1996

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Very refreshing that the Brits will now have to suffer under the governance of an evil Indian man. How the turn tables.

Sunak also became the first Indian PM on Diwali which makes it even better

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Here is coverage from the same exact by election from 1996:

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https://twitter.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1724423191706136902

The GOP is catching up with the Tories in how many House Leaders they have had since 2015, and the Tories are responding by saying “we will have more PMs than you have House Leaders”

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I wonder if Bravermann, Truss, Mogg all bolted the Tories(along with MP's like them) to Reform, would Farage be able to pull a UK Version of Manning 1993 .

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Numbers feel a little implausible, but worth noting that we’ve got a second “Tories under 20%” poll in 24 hours:https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1724880448281837663

They absolutely deserve the coming shellacking. I'm not sure I've ever seen a more mismanaged party than the UK Tories in the past few years. I'm not exactly as far left as UK Labour, but Starmer seems like a big step up over Corbyn, and certainly over the clowns the Tories have been led by in recent years.

I just entered this poll result in Electoral Calculus(Can’t change SNP % though) and this is what I got lol

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https://twitter.com/RealLiv04/status/1752363483142721665

Wow so even during the war, Labour had huge leads. I wonder why