This Once Great Movement Of Ours

[Coldstream]

Question for those with a better sense for THIGMOO dynamics:

James Frith, the former MP for Bury North (2017-19), has in the past few days been reselected by the local CLP to fight the seat in 2024. In the past couple of weeks, he's done a number of joint events with Christian Wakeford, and the two seem to be talking each other up - in public at least. Wakeford's fate doesn't seem to have been decided yet - from everything I can gather, Bury South CLP haven't announced a timeline for selection, or a trigger ballot. 

Does the embrace of Wakeford by local worthies like Frith suggest that he's more likely than not to win reselection? Or does the delay suggest that there could be a bit of a fight here?

They are leaving Wakeford as late as possible to allow maximum time for Corbynites to leave, but I don’t think there’s any real chance of Wakeford getting deselected. Whilst there will be some natural grievances with him locally, the man quite clearly never belonged in the Tory party and seems more comfortable with us - I think it’s unlikely local members will want to cause a negative story for the party when he’s been so unobjectionable.

Indeed, it seems likely that it’ll only be SCG members triggered this time - with the possible addition of Owatemi in Coventry, though personally I think she’ll be fine.

[Coldstream]

Question for those with a better sense for THIGMOO dynamics:

James Frith, the former MP for Bury North (2017-19), has in the past few days been reselected by the local CLP to fight the seat in 2024. In the past couple of weeks, he's done a number of joint events with Christian Wakeford, and the two seem to be talking each other up - in public at least. Wakeford's fate doesn't seem to have been decided yet - from everything I can gather, Bury South CLP haven't announced a timeline for selection, or a trigger ballot. 

Does the embrace of Wakeford by local worthies like Frith suggest that he's more likely than not to win reselection? Or does the delay suggest that there could be a bit of a fight here?

They are leaving Wakeford as late as possible to allow maximum time for Corbynites to leave, but I don’t think there’s any real chance of Wakeford getting deselected. Whilst there will be some natural grievances with him locally, the man quite clearly never belonged in the Tory party and seems more comfortable with us - I think it’s unlikely local members will want to cause a negative story for the party when he’s been so unobjectionable.

Indeed, it seems likely that it’ll only be SCG members triggered this time - with the possible addition of Owatemi in Coventry, though personally I think she’ll be fine.

Even there, it might only turn out to be Tarry and Begum in the end (both rather unusual cases)

For instance, going back to Coventry there is some muttering from local councillors to the media that they wouldn't mind having Zarah Sultana's seat - but nothing much actually seems to be happening.

It’s possible, but not much happened publicly with Tarry before they got him - and the campaign to remove Sultana is as organised.

Osamor is the other one in danger, but that’s more of a community issue than political.

[Coldstream]

Everyone and their dog knew from the moment Jas Athwal was cleared of the accusations against him that this was coming, though. Coventry South doesn't have anybody comparable for the anti-Sultana forces to rally around, as with most if not all other seats with SCG incumbents.

The long confirmed truism that is is incredibly hard to deselect a sitting Labour MP who really doesn't want to go, doesn't look like being contradicted much in this parliament.

All I know is that when I spoke to people in April about it, they were pessimistic about taking out Tarry, but optimistic about taking out Sultana. I’ve not seen anything to change my mind on that, Sultana wouldn’t even be the first hard left MP deselected in that constituency.

Tarry actually took steps to survive, he tried to organise and got out organised. Sultana has done next to nothing in Coventry.

[Coldstream]

Tarry is at least performing well enough in the wards to be in with a chance of doing well at the all-members meeting (if he is triggered) where as some of the reported results in TH were soviet esque…

Ofc Tarry could face what is generally the hardest thing in a full selection- a well organised, popular and local candidate. He won’t be facing some random activist or Cllr (as was the case in the 2019 selections as had- I still lol at the left trying to take down Hodge without realising she was an extremely effective machine politician at heart)

It’d be pretty shocking if Tarry was able to win a full selection. The hard part was triggering him, there were always the votes to choose Athwal.

[Coldstream]

Forde report is finally out today. Not sure there’s anything that’ll shock anyone or change any minds.

[Coldstream]

Interesting selections this weekend. Some notable ones…

Heidi Alexander (former Lewisham MP, Shadow Health Sec and Deputy Mayor) selected in her childhood seat of Swindon- someone said it was quite smart as if she wins Labour are virtually guaranteed to be in Government, so she won’t face prospect of being in opposition.

Faiza Shaheen selected in Chingford- IDS seat which has been trending for a long time and which had the kitchen sink thrown at it in 2019. Very highly rated on the left.

Westminster and Cities ended up picking a Tower Hamlet Cabinet Member- seems strange as they just won the council and imo this is the type of seat where I expected a ‘worthy’ in the party to stand, although god knows how you’d afford a house!

On two cities, Westminster Labour were so surprised to take the council I don’t think any of them had time to organise for the selection - those who went for it had been circling since Jan/Feb.

On Chingford, whilst there are a lot of people in the party who despise Shaheen - and she’s not my favourite person - she is very intelligent & a gifted economist + she did work very hard in 2019 even if she lost. Her personal politics are more like Sam Tarry, straddling the border between the hard & soft left too. So it’s not that shocking she was selected, she was one of the most ‘moderate’ Corbynite ppcs in 2019.

[Coldstream]

Of course, the Very Online Left decided a while back that Shaheen was a contemptible sellout.

This hasn't stopped even more contemptible aggro-centrists (eg Ian Leslie) smearing her.

And despicable Labour to Win in general.

I mean I will broadly be voting the LtW slate and very much don’t think that’s the view of most people on the Labour right- I was going to say that the vast majority of people getting outraged over her winning are the types who didn’t even vote for Labour in 2010, and consider anyone to the left of Ed Miliband as a trot.

They’re the types who regularly foam that Starmer is too weak and soft on the left which is a obviously a load of rubbish.

That's a tweet about that selection by the LtW national organiser.

https://twitter.com/DuddridgeLloyd/status/1546800715850567680

Not sure what the point is here, you had a candidate who supports Starmer & a candidate who doesn’t - and was closely associated with Ken Loach (and to my knowledge hasn’t disavowed him). It’s hardly an unfair accusation.

[Coldstream]

Of course, the Very Online Left decided a while back that Shaheen was a contemptible sellout.

This hasn't stopped even more contemptible aggro-centrists (eg Ian Leslie) smearing her.

And despicable Labour to Win in general.

I mean I will broadly be voting the LtW slate and very much don’t think that’s the view of most people on the Labour right- I was going to say that the vast majority of people getting outraged over her winning are the types who didn’t even vote for Labour in 2010, and consider anyone to the left of Ed Miliband as a trot.

They’re the types who regularly foam that Starmer is too weak and soft on the left which is a obviously a load of rubbish.

That's a tweet about that selection by the LtW national organiser.

https://twitter.com/DuddridgeLloyd/status/1546800715850567680

Not sure what the point is here, you had a candidate who supports Starmer & a candidate who doesn’t - and was closely associated with Ken Loach (and to my knowledge hasn’t disavowed him). It’s hardly an unfair accusation.

She is so anti-Starmer that she put him (Starmer, not Loach) on her leaflets.

And? Do you seriously think no anti-Corbyn candidates put Corbyn in their selection leaflets 17-19?

Just cos Shaheen is smarter and/or less principled than most Corbynites (depending on your interpretation) doesn’t change that she is one.

[Coldstream]

I'm curious. Is being an NEC member a paid job ?

It isn’t, though you get expenses paid. It’s not really a full time commitment, 2-4 meetings a month (including committees) is usual. Potentially up to 8 including selection panels.

[Coldstream]

Of course, the Very Online Left decided a while back that Shaheen was a contemptible sellout.

This hasn't stopped even more contemptible aggro-centrists (eg Ian Leslie) smearing her.

And despicable Labour to Win in general.

I mean I will broadly be voting the LtW slate and very much don’t think that’s the view of most people on the Labour right- I was going to say that the vast majority of people getting outraged over her winning are the types who didn’t even vote for Labour in 2010, and consider anyone to the left of Ed Miliband as a trot.

They’re the types who regularly foam that Starmer is too weak and soft on the left which is a obviously a load of rubbish.

That's a tweet about that selection by the LtW national organiser.

https://twitter.com/DuddridgeLloyd/status/1546800715850567680

Not sure what the point is here, you had a candidate who supports Starmer & a candidate who doesn’t - and was closely associated with Ken Loach (and to my knowledge hasn’t disavowed him). It’s hardly an unfair accusation.

She is so anti-Starmer that she put him (Starmer, not Loach) on her leaflets.

And? Do you seriously think no anti-Corbyn candidates put Corbyn in their selection leaflets 17-19?

Just cos Shaheen is smarter and/or less principled than most Corbynites (depending on your interpretation) doesn’t change that she is one.

Even if she is, so what - why does this exercise you (and others on the right of the party) so much??

The logical interpretation for some is that the left has no legitimate place in the Labour party - but for the most part few say this openly (the cranks obsessed with "Clause One" tend to be an exception)

Literally no clue what “exercise” even means in this context. I’m not sure why you think I even particularly care about Shaheen. As I’ve said repeatedly, she’s far from the worst of the 2019 PPC’s and she’s at least not stupid.

I don’t understand why you’re taking issue about simply pointing out she’s a Corbynite/Loach supporter - which she is. It’s no more critical than calling Streeting a Blairite.

If you like Corbyn/Loach and think they are good people why would you have a problem with it being pointed out? If you don’t, why not say so? It’s hardly a complex issue.

I’ve never seen anyone talk about purging the left, this is a completely hysterical overreaction.

[Coldstream]

Of course, the Very Online Left decided a while back that Shaheen was a contemptible sellout.

This hasn't stopped even more contemptible aggro-centrists (eg Ian Leslie) smearing her.

And despicable Labour to Win in general.

I mean I will broadly be voting the LtW slate and very much don’t think that’s the view of most people on the Labour right- I was going to say that the vast majority of people getting outraged over her winning are the types who didn’t even vote for Labour in 2010, and consider anyone to the left of Ed Miliband as a trot.

They’re the types who regularly foam that Starmer is too weak and soft on the left which is a obviously a load of rubbish.

That's a tweet about that selection by the LtW national organiser.

https://twitter.com/DuddridgeLloyd/status/1546800715850567680

Not sure what the point is here, you had a candidate who supports Starmer & a candidate who doesn’t - and was closely associated with Ken Loach (and to my knowledge hasn’t disavowed him). It’s hardly an unfair accusation.

She is so anti

And? Do you seriously think no anti-Corbyn candidates put Corbyn in their selection leaflets 17-19?

Just cos Shaheen is smarter and/or less principled than most Corbynites (depending on your interpretation) doesn’t change that she is one.

Even if she is, so what - why does this exercise you (and others on the right of the party) so much??

The logical interpretation for some is that the left has no legitimate place in the Labour party - but for the most part few say this openly (the cranks obsessed with "Clause One" tend to be an exception)

Literally no clue what “exercise” even means in this context. I’m not sure why you think I even particularly care about Shaheen. As I’ve said repeatedly, she’s far from the worst of the 2019 PPC’s and she’s at least not stupid.

I don’t understand why you’re taking issue about simply pointing out she’s a Corbynite/Loach supporter - which she is. It’s no more critical than calling Streeting a Blairite.

If you like Corbyn/Loach and think they are good people why would you have a problem with it being pointed out? If you don’t, why not say so? It’s hardly a complex issue.

I’ve never seen anyone talk about purging the left, this is a completely hysterical overreaction.

Side note, but I doorknocked for Shaheen in 2019, and will likely do the same this time next time I’m in London. Can you say the same? Because I’ve continually put factionalism below winning.

[Coldstream]

Of course, the Very Online Left decided a while back that Shaheen was a contemptible sellout.

This hasn't stopped even more contemptible aggro-centrists (eg Ian Leslie) smearing her.

And despicable Labour to Win in general.

I mean I will broadly be voting the LtW slate and very much don’t think that’s the view of most people on the Labour right- I was going to say that the vast majority of people getting outraged over her winning are the types who didn’t even vote for Labour in 2010, and consider anyone to the left of Ed Miliband as a trot.

They’re the types who regularly foam that Starmer is too weak and soft on the left which is a obviously a load of rubbish.

That's a tweet about that selection by the LtW national organiser.

https://twitter.com/DuddridgeLloyd/status/1546800715850567680

Not sure what the point is here, you had a candidate who supports Starmer & a candidate who doesn’t - and was closely associated with Ken Loach (and to my knowledge hasn’t disavowed him). It’s hardly an unfair accusation.

She is so anti

And? Do you seriously think no anti-Corbyn candidates put Corbyn in their selection leaflets 17-19?

Just cos Shaheen is smarter and/or less principled than most Corbynites (depending on your interpretation) doesn’t change that she is one.

Even if she is, so what - why does this exercise you (and others on the right of the party) so much??

The logical interpretation for some is that the left has no legitimate place in the Labour party - but for the most part few say this openly (the cranks obsessed with "Clause One" tend to be an exception)

Literally no clue what “exercise” even means in this context. I’m not sure why you think I even particularly care about Shaheen. As I’ve said repeatedly, she’s far from the worst of the 2019 PPC’s and she’s at least not stupid.

I don’t understand why you’re taking issue about simply pointing out she’s a Corbynite/Loach supporter - which she is. It’s no more critical than calling Streeting a Blairite.

If you like Corbyn/Loach and think they are good people why would you have a problem with it being pointed out? If you don’t, why not say so? It’s hardly a complex issue.

I’ve never seen anyone talk about purging the left, this is a completely hysterical overreaction.

Side note, but I doorknocked for Shaheen in 2019, and will likely do the same this time next time I’m in London. Can you say the same? Because I’ve continually put factionalism below winning.

Absolutely yes, i haven't yet come across a local Labour candidate (at any level) that I can't support.

That's how it should work, of course - with only very very rare exceptions.

Look forward to seeing you on the doorstep then, perhaps we’ll continue this in person.

[Coldstream]

Trans issues have become as much of a dividing line as the EU/anti-semitism were 16-19, perhaps more so as those issues have become less prominent. I wouldn’t be surprised if there were GC corbynites who backed Duffield, or indeed people to the right of her (since Duffield isn’t seen as on the right by the right) for the same reason. Whilst there will be plenty in the 65 who voted to trigger her who also backed Keir.

Ian Byrne in Liverpool West Derby looks to be in trouble. That wouldn’t be as shocking as it first appears, the seat was always the least left of all in Bristol - and it’s hard left MP Bob Wareing was deselected in 2007. Though Wareing was one of the most appalling people to have the Labour whip since Oswald Mosley, so he faced cross-factional support for deselection.

[Coldstream]

Trans issues have become as much of a dividing line as the EU/anti-semitism were 16-19, perhaps more so as those issues have become less prominent. I wouldn’t be surprised if there were GC corbynites who backed Duffield, or indeed people to the right of her (since Duffield isn’t seen as on the right by the right) for the same reason. Whilst there will be plenty in the 65 who voted to trigger her who also backed Keir.

Ian Byrne in Liverpool West Derby looks to be in trouble. That wouldn’t be as shocking as it first appears, the seat was always the least left of all in Bristol - and it’s hard left MP Bob Wareing was deselected in 2007. Though Wareing was one of the most appalling people to have the Labour whip since Oswald Mosley, so he faced cross-factional support for deselection.

MP for Belgrade North was his nickname, of course because of his lavish pro Serbian views. A vile man, who was actually in the end de-selected for being lazy. It’s v funny how parties are a lot more well strict on these things- for good reason.

I think Byrne is a special case as a very popular local councillor was kept of the shortlist and it was a perceived stitch up- with some on the left being angry too. But this is Liverpool Labour politics so god knows what is true!

Indeed, there was something about Wareing to dislike for everyone.

I actually think Byrne has a (slim) chance of winning reselection - like how Hodge & Johnson did in 2019. It does feel like there’s support for someone else rather than the widespread opposition to him seen with regards to Begum & Tarry.

[Coldstream]

Trans issues have become as much of a dividing line as the EU/anti-semitism were 16-19, perhaps more so as those issues have become less prominent. I wouldn’t be surprised if there were GC corbynites who backed Duffield, or indeed people to the right of her (since Duffield isn’t seen as on the right by the right) for the same reason. Whilst there will be plenty in the 65 who voted to trigger her who also backed Keir.

Ian Byrne in Liverpool West Derby looks to be in trouble. That wouldn’t be as shocking as it first appears, the seat was always the least left of all in Bristol - and it’s hard left MP Bob Wareing was deselected in 2007. Though Wareing was one of the most appalling people to have the Labour whip since Oswald Mosley, so he faced cross-factional support for deselection.

MP for Belgrade North was his nickname, of course because of his lavish pro Serbian views. A vile man, who was actually in the end de-selected for being lazy. It’s v funny how parties are a lot more well strict on these things- for good reason.

I think Byrne is a special case as a very popular local councillor was kept of the shortlist and it was a perceived stitch up- with some on the left being angry too. But this is Liverpool Labour politics so god knows what is true!

Indeed, there was something about Wareing to dislike for everyone.

I actually think Byrne has a (slim) chance of winning reselection - like how Hodge & Johnson did in 2019. It does feel like there’s support for someone else rather than the widespread opposition to him seen with regards to Begum & Tarry.

Well the support for someone else thing also applies to Tarry doesn't it, if not even more so.

And the Byzantine inticracies of internal TH politics re Begum leave me as baffled as most outsiders.

Byrne & Tarry aren’t really comparable, in Liverpool West Derby it was felt that there was someone better - but no one considered the entire selection illegitimate.

[Coldstream]

On Tarry, he’s apparently considering carpet bagging to Dagenham with Jon Cruddas standing down in the likely event he loses reselection in Ilford.

There are more prominent local candidates, but, Tarry & Cruddas aren’t as far apart politically as they might seem - they’ve both got a souveranist streak.

[Coldstream]

Wasn't Tarry a councillor there for a time or am I misremembering?

He was, most famous for living in Brighton whilst doing so.

[Coldstream]

Cruddas did announce his retirement at a v late stage.

Tarry is lucky the council leader is going for Barking- Rodwell is very popular.

Barking is a bunfight, Ibrahim Dogus (big donor, West Brom candidate in 2019) is also going for it - and I’ve heard of at least two ex-MP’s sniffing around. He may decide Dagenham is an easier selection to win even if the general election is harder (though I’d agree it’s unlikely).

[Coldstream]

Cruddas did announce his retirement at a v late stage.

Tarry is lucky the council leader is going for Barking- Rodwell is very popular.

Barking is a bunfight, Ibrahim Dogus (big donor, West Brom candidate in 2019) is also going for it - and I’ve heard of at least two ex-MP’s sniffing around. He may decide Dagenham is an easier selection to win even if the general election is harder (though I’d agree it’s unlikely).

The main problem for the council leader in Dagenham is Cruddas himself, who made it very clear he heavily dislikes him (and also those members who are in Havering wards).

It’s a good point, but I have to wonder how much the average member (even in his constituency) cares what Jon Cruddas thinks? I’ve always found him insufferable and out of touch.

[Coldstream]

Trans issues have become as much of a dividing line as the EU/anti-semitism were 16-19, perhaps more so as those issues have become less prominent. I wouldn’t be surprised if there were GC corbynites who backed Duffield, or indeed people to the right of her (since Duffield isn’t seen as on the right by the right) for the same reason. Whilst there will be plenty in the 65 who voted to trigger her who also backed Keir.

Am I wrong to assume that it's a generational divide? I find it awfully hard to imagine "gender-critical" activism having appeal to any significant number of Labour activists my age.

You don’t tend to see many passionately pro-Trans people over the age of 30 for sure. Though in my experience support for Trans rights isn’t as monolithic as you might think amongst under 30s - it’s more that GC people under that age would keep quiet about it.

[Coldstream]

Ian Byrne lost another trigger, seems likely he’ll face a full selection. It also seems UNITE’s new leadership don’t care about him because he’s seen as McCluskey’s man.

[Coldstream]

Oops… (Survation claims it was from a 2020 deputy leadership template) https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1560601301183959041?s=21&t=3FmvO9jtbDeyG...

This is a really bizarre story, at first I took survation at their word that it was a mistake - but the reactions have been so visceral it makes me wonder if RAK is plotting something. I know she’s not very popular with MPs anymore cos they see her as posturing, but she’s popular with the members.

[Coldstream]

She emerged as an actual political force quite suddenly and out of 'nowhere' during the Deputy contest and o/c that will always knock a few noses out of joint.

Her biggest problem is her biggest opportunity, she’s not beholden to anyone so she can say/do what she likes - but she’s also not got a power base within the party to deploy to defend her when she’s attacked.

[Coldstream]

It’ll be interesting to see how hard Tarry fights re-selection. He may recognise he’s done for and carpet bag away early.

[Coldstream]

Judging by the comments a lot of people are only just discovering the ‘Never kissed a Tory’ shirt. The response is a mix of people saying she’s far left/unelectable or people looking to be offended.

https://twitter.com/lucympowell/status/1563470492522098688?s=21&t=BqIs5YWGNq...

If you don’t cringe a little but wear the shirt/sticker anyway, you can’t call yourself a Labour activist. I’ve got two stickers on my wall.