🇩🇪 Germany: ⬛️ CDU/CSU chancellor candidate for 2021

[Lord Halifax]

I'm trying to give an answer to you questions one by one.

Thanks!

According to this article there is now increased support in the East German state associations, in the south-west, in Hamburg and in the business union that "Laschet should be advised to renounce the candidacy in favor of Söder by Easter."

It also says Söder is "the secret candidate of the Merz half of the party".

https://www.n-tv.de/politik/politik_person_der_woche/Drei-Gruende-fuer-Soeder-als-Kanzlerkandidat-article22427912.html

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

According to this article there is now increased support in the East German state associations, in the south-west, in Hamburg and in the business union that "Laschet should be advised to renounce the candidacy in favor of Söder by Easter."

It also says Söder is "the secret candidate of the Merz half of the party".

https://www.n-tv.de/politik/politik_person_der_woche/Drei-Gruende-fuer-Soeder-als-Kanzlerkandidat-article22427912.html

The poll about the "K-Frage" says it all:

37% Söder | 18% Habeck | 15% Scholz

22% Laschet | 21% Habeck | 20% Scholz

The Union would be stupid if they nominated Laschet, who had better renounce his candidacy in order to avert any damage to his party.

[Lord Halifax]

According to this article there is now increased support in the East German state associations, in the south-west, in Hamburg and in the business union that "Laschet should be advised to renounce the candidacy in favor of Söder by Easter."

It also says Söder is "the secret candidate of the Merz half of the party".

https://www.n-tv.de/politik/politik_person_der_woche/Drei-Gruende-fuer-Soeder-als-Kanzlerkandidat-article22427912.html

The poll about the "K-Frage" says it all:

37% Söder | 18% Habeck | 15% Scholz

22% Laschet | 21% Habeck | 20% Scholz

The Union would be stupid if they nominated Laschet, who had better renounce his candidacy in order to avert any damage to his party.

How much will the accusations against Alfred Sauter hurt Söder's chances?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

According to this article there is now increased support in the East German state associations, in the south-west, in Hamburg and in the business union that "Laschet should be advised to renounce the candidacy in favor of Söder by Easter."

It also says Söder is "the secret candidate of the Merz half of the party".

https://www.n-tv.de/politik/politik_person_der_woche/Drei-Gruende-fuer-Soeder-als-Kanzlerkandidat-article22427912.html

The poll about the "K-Frage" says it all:

37% Söder | 18% Habeck | 15% Scholz

22% Laschet | 21% Habeck | 20% Scholz

The Union would be stupid if they nominated Laschet, who had better renounce his candidacy in order to avert any damage to his party.

How much will the accusations against Alfred Sauter hurt Söder's chances?

Do you mean in the general or in the "primary"?

[Lord Halifax]

According to this article there is now increased support in the East German state associations, in the south-west, in Hamburg and in the business union that "Laschet should be advised to renounce the candidacy in favor of Söder by Easter."

It also says Söder is "the secret candidate of the Merz half of the party".

https://www.n-tv.de/politik/politik_person_der_woche/Drei-Gruende-fuer-Soeder-als-Kanzlerkandidat-article22427912.html

The poll about the "K-Frage" says it all:

37% Söder | 18% Habeck | 15% Scholz

22% Laschet | 21% Habeck | 20% Scholz

The Union would be stupid if they nominated Laschet, who had better renounce his candidacy in order to avert any damage to his party.

How much will the accusations against Alfred Sauter hurt Söder's chances?

Do you mean in the general or in the "primary"?

The latter.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

How much will the accusations against Alfred Sauter hurt Söder's chances?

Do you mean in the general or in the "primary"?

The latter.

Not at all. For every CSU politician that is involved in the mask scandal, there is a CDU counterpart who offsets the misdemeanors committed by their Bavarian brethren.
Plus, Laschet himself has a familially-involved mask scandal.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Favorability Ratings

All voters



CDU/CSU voters

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Jens Spahn is now involved in the omnipresent mask scandal, too: His health ministry purchased 570,000 FFP2 masks from Burda LLC without required tendering procedure.
The crux: His husband, Daniel Funke, works as a lobbyist and as the supervisor of the Burda representative office in Berlin.
This is already the couple's second scandal after their purchase of Richard Grenell's former luxury villa in Berlin's upscale district of Dahlem.

[Astatine]

New poll on who would be a good Chancellor... Well, it seems over for Armin.

[Lord Halifax]

New poll on who would be a good Chancellor... Well, it seems over for Armin.

Publicly everyone that matters still seem to back him, which is a bit weird to an outsider. They'd have a better chance to win with Söder and if they're going to lose it would presumably be better for CDU not to head the ticket.

But I guess a lot could be going on behind closed doors.

"From numerous conversations I've got the impression that it's viewed in the same way in the Baden-Württemberg CDU and in all other CDU state associations."

"For the southwestern CDU, which supported Friedrich Merz at the federal party conference and could theoretically look to the neighboring state of Bavaria out of disappointment, this clear majority support for Armin Laschet as the Union's Chancellor candidate is not entirely selfevident. However, the party needs his integrative strength, his focus on central issues, his economic expertise and his talent to surround himself with experts and representatives of all party currents."

https://www.zeit.de/news/2021-03/27/cdu-vize-strobl-fuer-laschet-als-kanzlerkandidaten

[Lurker]

Sorry if this has just been stated here, but when will the Union choose its candidate for chancellor?

[Lord Halifax]

Sorry if this has just been stated here, but when will the Union choose its candidate for chancellor?

Between Easter and Pentecost.

EDIT: A lot of CDU bigwigs are now saying it needs to be "soon" after Easter, while Söder insists there is no rush.

[Alcibiades]

Sorry if this has just been stated here, but when will the Union choose its candidate for chancellor?

Between Easter and Pentecost.

EDIT: A lot of CDU bigwigs are now saying it needs to be "soon" after Easter, while Söder insists there is no rush.

So the sooner they do it, the likelier Laschet is to be chosen, and the longer they wait, the likelier it’s Söder?

[Lord Halifax]

Sorry if this has just been stated here, but when will the Union choose its candidate for chancellor?

Between Easter and Pentecost.

EDIT: A lot of CDU bigwigs are now saying it needs to be "soon" after Easter, while Söder insists there is no rush.

So the sooner they do it, the likelier Laschet is to be chosen, and the longer they wait, the likelier it’s Söder?

According to German pundits Laschet and the CDU establishment fear that the polls will become so bad that "the polling argument" (Söder polling much better) will become impossible to ignore, so they want a quick decision while Söder hopes to present himself as the only one who can turn a dire situation around. Right now the Laschet camp claims that it doesn't matter how the polls look right now, because things will be different in Autumn, but the further they drop the more untenable that argument becomes.

[beesley]

Sorry if this has just been stated here, but when will the Union choose its candidate for chancellor?

Between Easter and Pentecost.

EDIT: A lot of CDU bigwigs are now saying it needs to be "soon" after Easter, while Söder insists there is no rush.

So the sooner they do it, the likelier Laschet is to be chosen, and the longer they wait, the likelier it’s Söder?

According to German pundits Laschet and the CDU establishment fear that the polls will become so bad that "the polling argument" (Söder polling much better) will become impossible to ignore, so they want a quick decision while Söder hopes to present himself as the only one who can turn a dire situation around. Right now the Laschet camp claims that it doesn't matter how the polls look right now, because things will be different in Autumn, but the further they drop the more untenable that argument becomes.

This far out, how much would you say Laschet being chosen would be damaging to the CDU at the election (if you can say)? Obviously it's hard to tell, but if he's lower-rated than Scholz and Habeck it becomes a big issue either way.

[Lord Halifax]

Sorry if this has just been stated here, but when will the Union choose its candidate for chancellor?

Between Easter and Pentecost.

EDIT: A lot of CDU bigwigs are now saying it needs to be "soon" after Easter, while Söder insists there is no rush.

So the sooner they do it, the likelier Laschet is to be chosen, and the longer they wait, the likelier it’s Söder?

According to German pundits Laschet and the CDU establishment fear that the polls will become so bad that "the polling argument" (Söder polling much better) will become impossible to ignore, so they want a quick decision while Söder hopes to present himself as the only one who can turn a dire situation around. Right now the Laschet camp claims that it doesn't matter how the polls look right now, because things will be different in Autumn, but the further they drop the more untenable that argument becomes.

This far out, how much would you say Laschet being chosen would be damaging to the CDU at the election (if you can say)? Obviously it's hard to tell, but if he's lower-rated than Scholz and Habeck it becomes a big issue either way.

I don't know enough about German politics to answer that, hopefully one of the German posters can.

[Lord Halifax]

How much does this matter?

RIP in peace, Armin Laschet

https://twitter.com/olivernmoody/status/1376269886465449986

[njwes]

What could her angle here possibly be? Unless she just truly believes it to be the truth--and that it's somehow worth calling out her party's leader and chancellor nominee in a rapidly approaching election (which I don't somehow).

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I don't know enough about German politics to answer that, hopefully one of the German posters can.

That would be a first, since parties have always elected their chancellor candidate by their public favorability. It would be an interesting and revealing experiment for psephologists.
The Union is still likely to emerge as the most successful parties after the election with Laschet on the top of their ticket, but he wouldn't nearly be as successful at gathering votes as Söder.
Keep in mind that, unlike in the US, the chancellor and the Bundestag members are elected separately; the number seat for a party (particularly for the big ones) is pegged to the favorability of the Spitzenkandidat. Therefore, the probability for a Bundestag candidate of winning a seat is decreasing the less electable the Spitzenkandidat is.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

How much does this matter?

RIP in peace, Armin Laschet

https://twitter.com/olivernmoody/status/1376269886465449986

It would be much more menacing for Laschet if Merkel had publicly placed her fullest trust in him.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1377297095183450122?s=20

Soder's the second most popular national politician, behind Merkel, this poll finds.

[Flyersfan232]

Jens Spahn is now involved in the omnipresent mask scandal, too: His health ministry purchased 570,000 FFP2 masks from Burda LLC without required tendering procedure.
The crux: His husband, Daniel Funke, works as a lobbyist and as the supervisor of the Burda representative office in Berlin.
This is already the couple's second scandal after their purchase of Richard Grenell's former luxury villa in Berlin's upscale district of Dahlem.

Is trump that hated that then buying gernell home considered a scandal or did they use state funds for it or something?

[President Johnson]

RIP Armin. He's not getting it with these terrible numbers.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Jens Spahn is now involved in the omnipresent mask scandal, too: His health ministry purchased 570,000 FFP2 masks from Burda LLC without required tendering procedure.
The crux: His husband, Daniel Funke, works as a lobbyist and as the supervisor of the Burda representative office in Berlin.
This is already the couple's second scandal after their purchase of Richard Grenell's former luxury villa in Berlin's upscale district of Dahlem.

Is trump that hated that then buying gernell home considered a scandal or did they use state funds for it or something?

Of course not, but Spahn demanded a declaration to cease and desist with penalty clause from numerous journalists and even from several small YouTubers who divulged the seven-digit purchase price.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

According to a Bild am Sonntag interview, Söder proposes that Merkel be involved in the decision on the nomination of the joint chancellor candidate, because no candidate could be successfully canvassing for votes without her endorsement.
Unlike his party colleague and predecessor, Federal Interior Minister Horst Seehofer, he prefers that CDU and CSU ought to take time with the nomination.