2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/TRussellCBS4/status/1318378841518280704

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/TRussellCBS4/status/1318378841518280704

WTB breakdown of totals, but it's looking like Democrats netted votes from both mail and early voting today in FL.

[Gass3268]

~27% of the voters so far in El Paso County didn't vote in 2016.

https://twitter.com/BradfordPearson/status/1318360571117506561

[Dr. Arch]

New update: >31M have voted already. New York still has no numbers. When does NY start reporting? We're looking to be well into the 40Ms or 50Ms next week at this rate.

[Xing]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1318373388289667072

Jesus they might hit the 70k firewall before Thursday

Spoiler alert: Trump isn’t going to win Nevada and it’s not even going to be close. Not like that’s surprising.

[It’s so Joever]

~27% of the voters so far in El Paso County didn't vote in 2016.

https://twitter.com/BradfordPearson/status/1318360571117506561

The Beto machine.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

~27% of the voters so far in El Paso County didn't vote in 2016.

https://twitter.com/BradfordPearson/status/1318360571117506561

Really curious what the numbers are for the other counties in Monstro’s daily posts. I’m excited as hell!

[Dr. Arch]

~27% of the voters so far in El Paso County didn't vote in 2016.

https://twitter.com/BradfordPearson/status/1318360571117506561

The Beto machine.

Am I doing this right, John Dule?

[Tintrlvr]

New update: >31M have voted already. New York still has no numbers. When does NY start reporting? We're looking to be well into the 40Ms or 50Ms next week at this rate.

I don’t think NY reports absentee voting figures in advance at all because the state is a mess and doesn’t know what to do with absentee voting yet. Early voting starts here on Saturday, and maybe they will report EV totals, but in the primaries (first time for EV ever), EV turnout was pitiful because nobody knew about it yet, and nobody is investing in voter education because no competitive races (at least in this part of the state). I wouldn’t expect much from NY.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Really curious what the numbers are for the other counties in Monstro’s daily posts. I’m excited as hell!

I may add some line graphs as well to the update since we are thru the first week

[Non Swing Voter]

Who is predicting over 50 million by Friday?  I think tomorrow's updates (with Florida, Texas, California, etc.) will be pretty big, probably at least 35 million by days end. 

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1318420096553865216

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1318421600320942081

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1318425007584735232

[Dr. Arch]

So a net gain of >6K votes for Democrats in Nevada despite Republicans winning the early vote (though not by much).

[Gass3268]

So a net gain of >6K votes for Democrats in Nevada despite Republicans winning the early vote (though not by much).

I can tell that Ralston doesn't feel as comfortable with what he's seeing the year because it's so different than it is normally.

[soundchaser]

So a net gain of >6K votes for Democrats in Nevada despite Republicans winning the early vote (though not by much).

I can tell that Ralston doesn't feel as comfortable with what he's seeing the year because it's so different than it is normally.

Yes, I understand why he’s not confident in saying this looks pretty good for Democrats, even though ostensibly it’s great. I guess we’ll see if he gets more sure of the numbers by the end of the week once we have more of a pattern.

[Hammy]

Two questions:

First, it looks like we're going to be at 35-40% of 2016's total vote (and this is with several states not reporting, and presumably not including mail vote in all-mail states?)--how does that compare to 2016 two weeks before?

Second, does it look like we won't have much of a problem with ballots not arriving on time at this point?

[SenatorCouzens]

So let me see if I have this right:

— Basically even in in-person voting
— Big Dem advantage in mail voting
— Miami-Dade still out

Sounds good for Dems then, right?

I’m guessing Miami-Dade puts Dems in the lead for the day for in person early voting. The rest of the unreported counties, other than Sarasota, are pretty small, so Miami-Dade will eclipse them.

Isn't Sarasota the only other unreported county?  My understanding was those remaining rural counties didn't actually have early voting today.

If that’s he case, RIP GOP. Miami-Dade’s 40k votes will be more than enough to give Dems a comfortable lead for the day.

It's the FIRST DAY of early voting in person in Florida. Several counties haven't even offered it yet. And you're already saying "RIP GOP"?

I think Biden is going to win the election, but I wish 2016 taught us a little more about not jumping the gun.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

~27% of the voters so far in El Paso County didn't vote in 2016.

Yet more evidence that this isn't the same Texas as 2016. Perhaps not even 2018

I wish we had similar stats for other TX counties. Especially Williamson & the Dallas suburbs

[NOVA Green]

Really curious what the numbers are for the other counties in Monstro’s daily posts. I’m excited as hell!

I may add some line graphs as well to the update since we are thru the first week

Hi Monstro...

Sounds totally awesome.

Here are the 2018 TX GE SEN EV vs ED Votes by County for my '18 TX Precinct Data Set (Missing some Counties but looks like this query grab has 189/254 for EV vs ED Raw Vote numbers):

Can't run down all of the data by Partisan Vote yet, and all y'alls please let me know if you see a data gap.

Monstro: Please PM me, if you want to help crunch some of these numbers as part of your project.

[Adam Griffin]

Not sure how many states McDonald updated tonight (for instance, I know GA is now a tad above 40%, but I'm just using the currently-listed figures):

VT: 46.3
TX: 45.3
NJ: 43.2
GA: 35.6
VA: 34.3
NM: 33.4
SD: 32.8
IA: 32.5
NC: 32.0
CO: 31.8

[Tender Branson]

Not sure how many states McDonald updated tonight (for instance, I know GA is now a tad above 40%, but I'm just using the currently-listed figures):

VT: 46.3
TX: 45.3
NJ: 43.2
GA: 35.6
VA: 34.3
NM: 33.4
SD: 32.8
IA: 32.5
NC: 32.0
CO: 31.8

TX's fast growing population and voter registration numbers alone should lead to a big increase in raw voting numbers.

That doesn't necessarily mean a higher turnout (because of the fast-rising population), but I guess in the case of this year it will. It's a swing state after all this year.

[n1240]

NC 10/19, day 5 early in-person vote:

Dem 111782 (38.2%)
Rep 99545 (34.0%)
Una 81422 (27.8%)
Total 292749

compared to day 5 in 2016

Dem 78803 (46.7%)
Rep 49831 (29.5%%
Una 40022 (23.7%)
Total 168656

Current Total (in-person only)

Dem 517315 (42.8%)
Rep 367111 (30.4%)
Una 323414 (26.8%)
Total 1207840

Current Total (cumulative absentee)

Dem 833736 (45.1%)
Rep 486672 (26.4%)
Una 526355 (28.5%)
Total 1846763

Best day thus far for GOP for early in-person votes in NC but they still trailed behind Dems. Total early in-person votes wasn't as large as first two days of early voting in the state but only slightly smaller (290k vs 320k).

[NOVA Green]

Oregon is naturally not a state in contention in 2020 at the Presidential Level, let alone the US-SEN Races, although perhaps PUBs might be able to pull off a stealth upset in CD-04 (Questionable but side topic), or even be able to hold the OR-SoS Office (Questionable but side topic).

I will not mention nor delve into potential State House and State Senate Elections on the line in this particular thread.

Still...

Oregon was just rated the easiest State to vote in within the entire United States:

Voting is easier in Oregon than any other state in the nation, according to the latest analysis by a team of political scientists tracking the issue.

“Oregon, which has one of the most progressive automatic voter registration processes and mail-in voting, maintains the first position as the easiest state in which to vote,” the researchers wrote in a summary of their findings published online ahead of publication in a scholarly journal.

The other top states for ease of voting are Washington, Utah, Illinois and Maryland. Oregon, Utah and Washington all have permanent vote-by-mail processes.

Political scientists Scot Schraufnagel of Northern Illinois University, Michael J. Pomante II of Jacksonville University and Quan Li of Wuhan University in China maintain an index of how easy or difficult it is for Americans to register to vote and cast a ballot. They last ranked states by their “cost of voting index” in 2016.

https://www.oregonlive.com/news/2020/10/oregon-is-the-easiest-state-in-the-nation-to-vote-in-new-analysis-finds.html

What does this mean in?

1.) Oregon was the first State in Union to adopt Universal Vote-by-Mail (VbM). I was initially skeptical way back in the late '90s, because I liked the rituals of standing in line at my local voting precinct, as well as the potential confusions caused by the "new rules".

Still, it made it so much easier for Seniors and remote rural residents, as well as younger folks, those living in the cities, to be able to ensure that we could vote regardless of drive-time to in-person precincts, shift schedules, but still it took some time for me to adjust since mailing addresses change and getting the right ballot at your address and updating everything was a bit confusing at first.

2.) The expansion of VbM to include Automatic Voter Registration (AVR) through the state Department of Voter Vehicles (DMV), with an opt-out clause for any interaction with the DMV created a surge of "New Registered Voters" in OR, with Non-Affiliated-Voter (NAV) as the default in the event of not selecting to "opt out".

3.) This has created a surge of new voters in Oregon between 2016 and 2020, well beyond natural eligible voting population within the State.

@ Virginia: Believe you asked me a question about this some 3-5 Years back.

4.) OR has gone from 2016 to 2020 in the following:

    A.) 2016:   2,568,872 Registered Voters--- 980.9k DEM (38.2%), 689k PUB (27.8%), 873k MISC (34.0%).

   B.) 2018:   2,751,512  RV---  977.7k DEM (35.5%), 708.1k PUB (25.7%), 1,066k MISC (38.8%)

   C.) 2020:   2,950,429  RV---  1,055k DEM (35.7%), 760.8k PUB (25.8%), 1,135k MISC  (38.5%)

5.) More to come as we continue to see OR results roll in, but thus far OR EV is heavily DEM, mainly because of large early dumps from Multnomah County.

[ExSky]

So let me see if I have this right:

— Basically even in in-person voting
— Big Dem advantage in mail voting
— Miami-Dade still out

Sounds good for Dems then, right?

I’m guessing Miami-Dade puts Dems in the lead for the day for in person early voting. The rest of the unreported counties, other than Sarasota, are pretty small, so Miami-Dade will eclipse them.

Isn't Sarasota the only other unreported county?  My understanding was those remaining rural counties didn't actually have early voting today.

If that’s he case, RIP GOP. Miami-Dade’s 40k votes will be more than enough to give Dems a comfortable lead for the day.

It's the FIRST DAY of early voting in person in Florida. Several counties haven't even offered it yet. And you're already saying "RIP GOP"?

I think Biden is going to win the election, but I wish 2016 taught us a little more about not jumping the gun.

On the contrary. I wish it hadn’t made everyone pathetically cowardly in making a prediction. Everyone’s scared of their own shadow now.

[Ljube]

Oregon is naturally not a state in contention in 2020 at the Presidential Level, let alone the US-SEN Races, although perhaps PUBs might be able to pull off a stealth upset in CD-04 (Questionable but side topic), or even be able to hold the OR-SoS Office (Questionable but side topic).

I will not mention nor delve into potential State House and State Senate Elections on the line in this particular thread.

Still...

Oregon was just rated the easiest State to vote in within the entire United States:

Voting is easier in Oregon than any other state in the nation, according to the latest analysis by a team of political scientists tracking the issue.

“Oregon, which has one of the most progressive automatic voter registration processes and mail-in voting, maintains the first position as the easiest state in which to vote,” the researchers wrote in a summary of their findings published online ahead of publication in a scholarly journal.

The other top states for ease of voting are Washington, Utah, Illinois and Maryland. Oregon, Utah and Washington all have permanent vote-by-mail processes.

Political scientists Scot Schraufnagel of Northern Illinois University, Michael J. Pomante II of Jacksonville University and Quan Li of Wuhan University in China maintain an index of how easy or difficult it is for Americans to register to vote and cast a ballot. They last ranked states by their “cost of voting index” in 2016.

https://www.oregonlive.com/news/2020/10/oregon-is-the-easiest-state-in-the-nation-to-vote-in-new-analysis-finds.html

What does this mean in?

1.) Oregon was the first State in Union to adopt Universal Vote-by-Mail (VbM). I was initially skeptical way back in the late '90s, because I liked the rituals of standing in line at my local voting precinct, as well as the potential confusions caused by the "new rules".

Still, it made it so much easier for Seniors and remote rural residents, as well as younger folks, those living in the cities, to be able to ensure that we could vote regardless of drive-time to in-person precincts, shift schedules, but still it took some time for me to adjust since mailing addresses change and getting the right ballot at your address and updating everything was a bit confusing at first.

2.) The expansion of VbM to include Automatic Voter Registration (AVR) through the state Department of Voter Vehicles (DMV), with an opt-out clause for any interaction with the DMV created a surge of "New Registered Voters" in OR, with Non-Affiliated-Voter (NAV) as the default in the event of not selecting to "opt out".

3.) This has created a surge of new voters in Oregon between 2016 and 2020, well beyond natural eligible voting population within the State.

@ Virginia: Believe you asked me a question about this some 3-5 Years back.

4.) OR has gone from 2016 to 2020 in the following:

    A.) 2016:   2,568,872 Registered Voters--- 980.9k DEM (38.2%), 689k PUB (27.8%), 873k MISC (34.0%).

   B.) 2018:   2,751,512  RV---  977.7k DEM (35.5%), 708.1k PUB (25.7%), 1,066k MISC (38.8%)

   C.) 2020:   2,950,429  RV---  1,055k DEM (35.7%), 760.8k PUB (25.8%), 1,135k MISC  (38.5%)

5.) More to come as we continue to see OR results roll in, but thus far OR EV is heavily DEM, mainly because of large early dumps from Multnomah County.

Please, keep informing us about developments in Oregon and in particular about the CD-04 race.