2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Collin County at 62% of 2016 turnout. (They just started 7-7 voting today).

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Travis County up to at least 56.3% of 2016 turnout.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/HarrisVotes/status/1318341213129420801

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/JudgeClayJ/status/1318333362310909953

[Non Swing Voter]

Carlos Suarez
@CarlosNBC6
 · 2h
#BREAKING @NBC6 Over 40,000 votes were cast in Miami Dade County on the first day of #EarlyVoting surpassing 2016 numbers. The final numbers will post online after all sites close.

No idea on party breakdown yet?

[Alben Barkley]

So let me see if I have this right:

— Basically even in in-person voting
— Big Dem advantage in mail voting
— Miami-Dade still out

Sounds good for Dems then, right?

[Dr. Arch]

So let me see if I have this right:

— Basically even in in-person voting
— Big Dem advantage in mail voting
— Miami-Dade still out

Sounds good for Dems then, right?

Yes

[Panda Express]

New Colorado numbers in - 640,000 ballots already returned

Democrats are now at 29% of their total 2016 turnout, GOP at 15%. (Independents at 23%)

[Holmes]

So let me see if I have this right:

— Basically even in in-person voting
— Big Dem advantage in mail voting
— Miami-Dade still out

Sounds good for Dems then, right?

I’m guessing Miami-Dade puts Dems in the lead for the day for in person early voting. The rest of the unreported counties, other than Sarasota, are pretty small, so Miami-Dade will eclipse them.

[Non Swing Voter]

So let me see if I have this right:

— Basically even in in-person voting
— Big Dem advantage in mail voting
— Miami-Dade still out

Sounds good for Dems then, right?

I'd say so when you consider that the GOP barely won in 2018 even though their side had like a 5 point edge in turnout.  Dems just seem to need to keep pace with GOP.  So if they're banking these kinds of votes now it seems a lot more likely they will keep pace overall.

[Non Swing Voter]

So let me see if I have this right:

— Basically even in in-person voting
— Big Dem advantage in mail voting
— Miami-Dade still out

Sounds good for Dems then, right?

I’m guessing Miami-Dade puts Dems in the lead for the day for in person early voting. The rest of the unreported counties, other than Sarasota, are pretty small, so Miami-Dade will eclipse them.

Isn't Sarasota the only other unreported county?  My understanding was those remaining rural counties didn't actually have early voting today.

[Rep Jessica]

Jon Ralston
@RalstonReports
·
8m
NEWS:
Clark County has updated its mail ballot counts:

Now up to 105K returned and Dems are up 60 percent to 19 percent. 42K ballot lead in Clark.

Since last mail count:

Dems: +11K
Rs: +2.5K

Damn.

Add in-person and Dems now have a 44K ballot lead in Clark.

13% have voted.

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1318373388289667072

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1318373388289667072

Jesus they might hit the 70k firewall before Thursday

[Non Swing Voter]

Jon Ralston
@RalstonReports
·
8m
NEWS:
Clark County has updated its mail ballot counts:

Now up to 105K returned and Dems are up 60 percent to 19 percent. 42K ballot lead in Clark.

Since last mail count:

Dems: +11K
Rs: +2.5K

Damn.

Add in-person and Dems now have a 44K ballot lead in Clark.

13% have voted.

damn.  I have always felt like this is literally the ONLY Hillary state Trump could win (mostly because I'm unsure if a lot of workers in Clark literally moved when Las Vegas shutdown).  But these numbers make me think Trump has no chance.  Even if he can get it close again, seems like he won't be able to get over the edge.

[Gass3268]

Big Connecticut dump with 22.2% of the 2016 vote with 371,595 votes.

Democrats - 52.5%
Republicans- 14.5%
Minor- 1.4%
No Party Affiliation - 31.6%

[Holmes]

So let me see if I have this right:

— Basically even in in-person voting
— Big Dem advantage in mail voting
— Miami-Dade still out

Sounds good for Dems then, right?

I’m guessing Miami-Dade puts Dems in the lead for the day for in person early voting. The rest of the unreported counties, other than Sarasota, are pretty small, so Miami-Dade will eclipse them.

Isn't Sarasota the only other unreported county?  My understanding was those remaining rural counties didn't actually have early voting today.

If that’s he case, RIP GOP. Miami-Dade’s 40k votes will be more than enough to give Dems a comfortable lead for the day.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Collin County at 62% of 2016 turnout. (They just started 7-7 voting today).

Texas is going to come down to Collin County and the metroplex. Dems appear to be getting the turnout they need to in their base areas, so now it comes down to persuasion and new voters.

[Lief 🗽]

Hopefully NV Dems make all-mail voting permanent after this (I believe it was only this year due to the pandemic). This turnout is insane so far.

[Adam Griffin]

Yeah, not really sure why people are freaking out over today's EV in Florida? Would you call a very tight race in the state for the GOP with literally zero of Miami-Dade being counted?

[Non Swing Voter]

Collin County at 62% of 2016 turnout. (They just started 7-7 voting today).

Texas is going to come down to Collin County and the metroplex. Dems appear to be getting the turnout they need to in their base areas, so now it comes down to persuasion and new voters.

Good thing Dems nominated moderate Joe.

[Storr]

I am updating my percentage of 2016 vote tally of Texas counties with >200,000 population. "Why 200K?", you may ask. Because there are literally 16 counties between 100 and 200k population that are all solid Republican (the most favorable one for Democrats, Guadalupe, still was 63% Trump in 2016) and I don't want to take the effort to keep up with those.

Anyway, I found my first county with 70% of 2016 votes, and it's a tossup rapidly growing suburban county to boot (Trump won it by literally 602 votes in 2016):

Hays

They have a late 2000s looking bare bones elections website and only give early voting and mail-in ballot data through separate excel spreadsheets with each individual voter's information: last name, first name, address, precinct, even the time (down to the second) they checked in to vote, among others. Thus, you have to scroll all the way down on the spreadsheet to find the total. If you want to see it in all its glory here's a link to the results page where I got the numbers from:
https://hayscountytx.com/departments/elections/current-year-elections/

Despite these hurtles I found the golden nugget: 41,066 in person early votes + 9,671 returned mail ballots = 50,737 divided by the total number of 2016 votes (72,164) gives us 70.31%.
Incredible!

[Benjamin Frank]

Voters have cast a total of 30,738,627 ballots in the reporting states.
https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I am updating my percentage of 2016 vote tally of Texas counties with >200,000 population. "Why 200K?", you may ask. Because there are literally 15 counties between 100 and 200k population that are all solid red and I don't want to take the effort to keep up with those.

Anyway, I found my first county with 70% of 2016 votes, and it's a tossup rapidly growing suburban county to boot (Trump won it by literally 602 votes in 2016):

Hays

They have a late 2000s looking bare bones elections website and only give early voting and mail-in ballot data through separate excel spreadsheets with each individual voter's information (last name first name, address, precinct, even the time they checked in to vote, among others). Thus, you have to scroll all the way down on the spreadsheet to find the total. If you want to see it in all its glory here's a link to the results page where I got the numbers from:
https://hayscountytx.com/departments/elections/current-year-elections/

Despite these hurtles I found the golden nugget: 41,066 in person early votes + 9,671 returned mail ballots = 50,737 divided by the total number of 2016 votes (72,164) gives us 70.31%.
Incredible!

Cool!

Hays is Safe D, btw. Biden should hope to win here by around 20%. O’Rourke won by 17%.

[YE]

Can you all just shut the f[inks]k up and take this to one of the many more appropriate threads?

Cleaned up (I kept the argument in place but was able to condense it down to a limited number of quotes). Normally, I'd split a separate topic but in such a large thread, splitting a topic off would require time I do not have and I'm not even sure the other moderators of this board even know how to split a topic.