Peruvian Elections and Politics: Boluarte era, political crisis continues

[PSOL]

We have first US votes. From New Jersey, break 80-20 for Keiko.

~30% turnout from these stations. Around 75 votes per station cast (there are ~1K stations assigned to the US).

The victory margin is good news for Keiko (in Miami I imagine 90%). But the 28% turnout is not.

Hopefully it maintains near 30% instead of the expected 40%

It’s going to rise, Panchamama will be vanquished by the forces of Christ.

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What with an almost perfect 50-50 split, I have to strongly agree with the narrative that Fujimori and Castillo are truly perfect for each other, and the only candidate the other could have hoped to beat. Had it been any of the other likely contenders against either, Peru would already have a President-Elect and it wouldn't be by a close margin.

Honestly; I doubt Forsyth, Aliaga, or Mendoza would do any better.

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An underrated reason why the Western Peruvian diaspora vote for KF is due to the past few years scaring them against the left. The likes of people like Jeremy Corbyn keeps the wounds of communism on their back, refreshened with the draconian lockdowns imposed by people like Joe Biden. Remember the huge swings Trump made with Latino voters, it’s clear that the international left gets them agitated to prevent their country from falling further to the lefts clutches.

[PSOL]

An underrated reason why the Western Peruvian diaspora vote for KF is due to the past few years scaring them against the left. The likes of people like Jeremy Corbyn keeps the wounds of communism on their back, refreshened with the draconian lockdowns imposed by people like Joe Biden. Remember the huge swings Trump made with Latino voters, it’s clear that the international left gets them agitated to prevent their country from falling further to the lefts clutches.

Please list the draconian lockdowns imposed by Joe Biden.

You can’t even go too far from your home without a vaccine passport anymore. The fact that they’re implementing similar systems for procuring work and food is terrifying for a demographic against Covid restrictions by antisocial leftists.

Latin Americans value freedom of travel and getting up close to people. How else do you explain the #trendz

This is hogwash. Where and for what purposes are vaccine passports, in the unlikely event that any actually exist, required? Provide specifics or withdraw this ludicrous claim.

It’s right outside your door, you just need to remove the wool from your ears.

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For me to cease the maymays for a second, I doubt the Peruvian congress would impeach Keiko for two main reasons. One—that doing so would embolden the Left to take power—and two—that Keiko would organize to hold onto power through her connections with the Peruvian security services.

Given the high rise of commodity prices and the need to end this pandemic, KF has a chance to remain in office for a long, long time while building a web of allies grabbing onto her coattails.

There are 130 seats in the Congress. Castillo's party has 37. Fujimori's party has 24. Both have a small share of the Congress, and the risk of impeachment for both is not negligible.

The Peruvian Left arguably has 43 seats, the Right 62. The Center in this scenario would not want a resurgent left to have another chance now.

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Surely if Castillo is removed by Congress we'll see actual violent civil conflict?

The military will probably work hard on behalf of Keiko for the cover of a parliamentary coup, yes.

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So apparently Veronika Mendoza supported not only Vizcarra, which I could see some merit in given the circumstances, but also the usurper Manuel Merino. Yeah, not only did she ran an awful campaign, but for three years her political maneuvers were terrible and basically strung up to becoming a pressure valve for the regime of 1993. Do nothing as the Broad Front she left behind.

Ultimately, the social democratic-oriented Peru Libre is the best bet now for the people given its willingness to realize what must be done to dismantle the oligarchy as far as it can and has the support base to lead; most trade unions support them, as do the radical socialist democrats in Mano Araca’s party and several critical backings by an umbrella of small socialist groups

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So apparently Veronika Mendoza supported not only Vizcarra, which I could see some merit in given the circumstances, but also the usurper Manuel Merino. Yeah, not only did she ran an awful campaign, but for three years her political maneuvers were terrible and basically strung up to becoming a pressure valve for the regime of 1993. Do nothing as the Broad Front she left behind.

Ultimately, the social democratic-oriented Peru Libre is the best bet now for the people given its willingness to realize what must be done to dismantle the oligarchy as far as it can and has the support base to lead; most trade unions support them, as do the radical socialist democrats in Mano Araca’s party and several critical backings by an umbrella of small socialist groups

Where are you getting that she supported Merino? I’ve never seen anything but opposition to him and the impeachment from her.

Hold on, sorry, I was referring to her support for Sagasti
https://www.leftvoice.org/polarization-and-crisis-in-peru/

Castillo could thus wrest the leadership of the Left from the hands of Verónika Mendoza, who, until weeks before April 11, was one of the most likely candidates to participate in the runoff. Mendoza’s support for Kuczynski in the 2016 runoff, for Vizcarra’s administration, and, more recently, for Sagasti, in order to “preserve the country’s institutions,” apparently led the electorate to perceive her as part of the regime’s old guard.

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Vladimir Montesinos is too dangerous with the privileges of access he is getting.

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Vladimir Montesinos is too dangerous with the privileges of access he is getting.

Certainly. If Abimael Guzmán had done something like this…

I’m sure of it that the Immortal Science master is held under tighter wraps than Vlad.

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Sad, but totally obvious from the beginning, that Castillo is Humala 2.0.

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Any sort of point made using polls in Peru are based in faulty evidence given how hard it is to poll for rural indigenous highlanders.

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Cérron gave too much leeway to that ungrateful Humala 2.0. He wouldn’t be where he is without the help of the Left.

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Cérron gave too much leeway to that ungrateful Humala 2.0. He wouldn’t be where he is without the help of the Left.

Lmao, Mirtha Vásquez is not Humala. Cerrón was a massive weight on Castillo’s campaign and still is the biggest drain on his presidency.

Not everyone who's a member of a different leftist party - or even a more moderate member of the same leftist party! - as Your Guy is a fake leftist.

Cérron made Castillo; his platform, his movement, and his momentum were because of Cérron. Else he’d be just another micropersonality failing to get in the threshold. It was his experience and connections that PL came to be.

Now, once the most experienced member leaves and takes the people who do most of the work, Castillo would be lucky to last more than one term in this environment.

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So we're at the point where Castillo's own party is trying to undermine him. Just amazing. What a country.

He’s spent all his time sidelining his Vice Presidents and telling the PL left to shut up and get in line, of course there would be pushback.

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So we're at the point where Castillo's own party is trying to undermine him. Just amazing. What a country.

He’s spent all his time sidelining his Vice Presidents and telling the PL left to shut up and get in line, of course there would be pushback.

He only has one Vice President, who is also a minister in his cabinet (under both Bellido and Vásquez). The second Vice Presidency, which would have been occupied by Cerrón, is vacant because Cerrón was excluded from the ticket due to his corruption conviction.

Thanks for correcting me.

Castillo, a pretty face who was selected and tailored to win the presidency by PL party insiders, lost the support of the two of the most powerful and politically adept party bosses by telling them to shut up.

[PSOL]

New IEP poll out. You’ll love this one PSOL.

Castillo approval falls to 35-48, driven by a fall from 58% approval to 42% in the south (the left’s political base). On the other hand, 65% of people support confidence in the Vásquez cabinet (up from 56% for Bellido). Vásquez herself is at 41-46 approval as prime minister.

Is there a reason for his base to be disapproving? Just a sense that he isn't moving fast enough?

When you alienate the two pillars of your party and shift to become indistinguishable from how the center right governs, of course your base will bail on you.

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Maybe he should ask for help from more experienced politicians, like Cérron, instead of telling them to pipe down and ignoring their relevance in the party and their relevance to him being president in the first place.

It’s clear Castillo is way over his head, and he’s too haughty and stubborn to preserve his ego to even ask for professional help.

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Maybe he should ask for help from more experienced politicians, like Cérron, instead of telling them to pipe down and ignoring their relevance in the party and their relevance to him being president in the first place.

It’s clear Castillo is way over his head, and he’s too haughty and stubborn to preserve his ego to even ask for professional help.

I’m sure Cerrón will be a great help with trying to defuse corruption allegations, but it’s an interesting turn you’ve made to siding with the fujimoristas.

I have not, and neither has Cérron given that Castillo is still in office. Cérron is being very patient with a dog that is misbehaving even with him giving the dog everything possible to succeed in life, and elevated in a miraculous first place in the recent beauty pageant. Even with all the public disrespect, PL is still one united party and in no way will threats turn to reality to give the possibility of Fujimoristas a chance. 

Why have you sided with the right wing media in sacking most of Castillo’s cabinet? Why have you bought into the politicized witch-hunt against Cérron in an atmosphere which weaponizes false corruption charges to target political opponents?

[PSOL]

Maybe he should ask for help from more experienced politicians, like Cérron, instead of telling them to pipe down and ignoring their relevance in the party and their relevance to him being president in the first place.

It’s clear Castillo is way over his head, and he’s too haughty and stubborn to preserve his ego to even ask for professional help.

I’m sure Cerrón will be a great help with trying to defuse corruption allegations, but it’s an interesting turn you’ve made to siding with the fujimoristas.

I have not, and neither has Cérron given that Castillo is still in office. Cérron is being very patient with a dog that is misbehaving even with him giving the dog everything possible to succeed in life, and elevated in a miraculous first place in the recent beauty pageant. Even with all the public disrespect, PL is still one united party and in no way will threats turn to reality to give the possibility of Fujimoristas a chance. 

Why have you sided with the right wing media in sacking most of Castillo’s cabinet? Why have you bought into the politicized witch-hunt against Cérron in an atmosphere which weaponizes false corruption charges to target political opponents?

“PL is one united party”? Is this a joke? 19 voted for confidence in the Vásquez cabinet and 16 - Cerrón’s faction - voted against. If they’d succeeded the country would be one vote away from a new Congressional election that would likely give the right (if not fujimorismo itself) even more power. Waldemar Cerrón said that PL is “evaluating” supporting the right’s impeachment against Castillo just a few days ago. I opposed Bellido as prime minister because he was a virulent homophobe and I’m sorry you felt some sort of reflexive need to support him because he’s on your guy’s side. I oppose him because he’s corrupt, unpopular, and a drag on the left. I don’t get why you’re so deeply invested in defending them or why you think Cerrón has a monopoly on the left.

If PL wasn’t, it would have broken up already.

Cérron does not have a monopoly, but shutting him out has led to Castillo throwing out many more cabinet members due to a hyperactive smear campaign and has led him to make gaffes and misstep like him meeting with people at this apartment. It is unprofessional and harmful to the effectiveness of his government and entirely a self-own by sidelining all those with effective political experience in his party.

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Well no s•••, why would Cérron break his own party and join the right.

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Well no s•••, why would Cérron break his own party and join the right.

I don’t know bud, why did he do it the last time?

There is such a thing called posturing and knowing when to virtue signal when nothing will occur in the art of politics. Flexing now and dividing the party is a dumb move, so it did not occur.

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https://mobile.twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1473080736618102787

Seems like the JPP continues to break apart, with 4/7 parties in the alliance exiting and either joining the purple party, joining PL, and whatever may this party do next.

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Peru would be governed a lot better if Castillo wasn’t convinced that punching left was a good platform to go under.

A lot of the scandals of his administration are pretty much the norm since Peru’s founding, and especially bland given the massive corruption deals and overt racism against minorities of his predecessors; Humala, PPK, and the dwarfed comparisons to the Garcia and Fujimori days.

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Ah, but they're just antizionist, you see.

No, this is serious and in no need of sarcasm. These are blatant statements of antisemitic content that should be held to scrutiny so as to improve Peru. Same goes for the LGBTQ issue, where different collectives and personalities more radical and outside PL critiqued their position and caused them to change their minds through grassroots osmosis.