Trump approval ratings thread 1.5

[emailking]

I want to point out, as I occasionally do, that outliers are important and still tell you something. If you have 5 polls that are within 3 points of each other and then you have another one that's 10 points higher, yes the latter is probably overestimating the support significantly. But it also means the other 5 are probably collectively underestimating it.

[emailking]

I want to point out, as I occasionally do, that outliers are important and still tell you something. If you have 5 polls that are within 3 points of each other and then you have another one that's 10 points higher, yes the latter is probably overestimating the support significantly. But it also means the other 5 are probably collectively underestimating it.

I agree with this to an extent, but I'd phrase it as the other 5 "may be" collectively underestimating it.  "Probably" is a little too strong unless you start to get more than one outlier in the same range.

I'll rephrase it like this. It's more likely than not that true support is larger than the average of the other five.

[emailking]

60% disapproval is pretty stark. The point is, I don't see how these fundamentals change much over the next twelve months. Unless the election is rigged or a strong third party emerges, Trump should be in real danger.

The way he wins is that there is low turnout and he gets really lucky again.

I guess but that seems unlikely, partly by construction.

[emailking]

It will be if the Democrats win... or something like it. This or Trump+ME MN NH are the two mostly likely maps at this rate.

You think a Dem blowout map or a Trump blowout map are the 2 most maps likely at this point, vs. say one of them with a state flipped. 🤔

[emailking]

Is that the first number over 60 I think?

[emailking]

Back to the mid 40s lol  (RCP AVG at 43.5% - with a couple outliers at 39% about to be edged out).

These threads are a joke, wishcasting Trump’s demise.

538's average, which uses a better technique, has Trump approval at 41.4/54.6.  But keep relying on RCP's simplistic average if it makes you feel better.

So simplistic that RCP got 2016 closer than the egotistical Nate’s 538. Right.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Nate calls the 2008 election (easiest to call) and he’s seen as a god. He ducks up the 2016 election it’s all deflection “well no he didn’t predict per se he was giving the odds and 30% chance isn’t 0 blah blah blah”.....You can’t have it both ways, if he gets praised when he gets it right, he bears responsibility when he does indeed get it wrong.

He didn't "get it wrong" and any praise is, or should be, due to the methodology. He has not forecast a 100% chance in a Presidential race, so he cannot be either right or wrong. There isn't a "both ways" about it, that's the only way.