Trump approval ratings thread 1.5

[GeorgiaModerate]

Is that the first number over 60 I think?

Probably.  There was an ABC/WaPo in early October with support for the inquiry at 58, but that was the highest I've seen before this.

[GP270watch]

A very bad poll for Trump from a very good pollster:

IBD/TIPP, Oct. 24-31, 903 adults (1-month change)

Approve 39 (-4)
Disapprove 56 (+2)

Among independents: Approve 34 (-9), Disapprove 58 (+6)

Impeachment inquiry (n=768):

Support 61 (+6)
Oppose 39 (-5)

Among independents: Support 64 (+11), Oppose 35 (-10)

 Awful poll for Trump. He's toast a 60%, this gets rid of the shy Trump phenomenon.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Texas: UT/Texas Tribune, Oct. 18-27, 1200 RV

Approve 47
Disapprove 48

Are congressional impeachment investigations of President Trump justified?

Yes 46
No 42

Do President Trump's actions merit early removal from office?

Yes 43
No 44

[pbrower2a]

Franklin and Marshall University, Pennsylvania. Registered voters, late October. Read the crosstabs for yourself:

https://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/93374337988676509-f-m-poll-release-october-2019.pdf

21-71 approval/disapproval on the attempt to extract politically-damaging material against members of an opponent's family from the President of Ukraine.  

Only 37% of Pennsylvania voters think that Donald Trump deserves re-election, and 59% believe otherwise. Of those 59% who think that he does not deserve re-election, 85% will vote for any Democrat against him. That gives Trump an absolute ceiling of 48% as a share of the vote. The Democrat will get 52% at the least under the most unfavorable circumstances that anyone can reasonably expect.

This is an excellent-good-fair-poll, so I do not treat it as a true approval poll. But with the "poor" level (which I can interpret as :strong disapproval" at 54%, there can be no question that Pennsylvania will not go for Trump a year from mow. "Only fair" seems ambiguous to some extent because "fair" has some positive connotations. Trump can lose this state by double digits. Even giving Trump 6% of "fair", I would see approval around 42-57. That is deep red on the map no matter how one interprets this poll.

Even worse for Trump -- new voters of 2020 will be registering to vote, and they are likely to lean decidedly D. Under 35 is only 16% of this poll.

I saw Pennsylvania as "strong D" before this poll, and it is still "strong D". Trump is not going to win a state in which his disapproval is 55% or so a year before the election.  Trump is not going to get his act together and clear out the chaos and corruption.

Here is a state polled rarely, and the result should be no surprise. It is a Democratic internal, but any hope that Trump has of winning this state is so slight that is absurd as the idea that the Detroit Tigers have a reasonable chance of appearing in the World Series in the next five years.

(Washington, PPP)

The poll was conducted by Public Policy Polling for the Northwest Progressive Institute, and has a margin of error of +/- 3.3% at the 95% confidence level.

Here’s our job performance question and responses:

QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of President Donald Trump’s job performance?

ANSWERS:

Disapprove: 61%
Approve: 36%
Not sure: 4%
Note that percentages do not add to one hundred due to rounding.

wprogressive.org/weblog/2019/10/washingtonians-overwhelmingly-support-impeaching-donald-trump-npi-poll-finds.html

(Washington state goes to a Republican in about a 400-EV victory for the Republican).

And for the state that straddles 400 electoral votes for a Democratic nominee for President:

Texas: UT/Texas Tribune, Oct. 18-27, 1200 RV

Approve 47
Disapprove 48

Are congressional impeachment investigations of President Trump justified?

Yes 46
No 42

Do President Trump's actions merit early removal from office?

Yes 43
No 44

Restoring a poll that I dropped from the middle of October, Iowa -- Trump was underwater with both numbers under 50.

If Texas is in doubt for the 2020 election, then Democratic chances for winning the Presidency are very, very good. This poll replaces an old one that I did not fully believe. Essentially it is a tie, but any lead for either a Democrat or a Republican gets some hue.



Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over 50%
45-49% and negative

tie (white)

45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher

[GeorgiaModerate]

Fox News, Oct. 27-30, 1040 RV (3-week change)

Approve 42 (-1)
Disapprove 57 (+2)

Strongly approve 26 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 46 (-1)

Biden 51 (+1), Trump 39 (-1)
Warren 46 (-4), Trump 41 (+1)
Sanders 49 (nc), Trump 41 (+1)
Buttigieg 41, Trump 41 (not asked last time - 41/40 in June)

Impeach and remove Trump?

Yes 49 (-2)
No 45 (+2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

NBC/WSJ, Oct. 27-30, 900 adults including 720 RV (3-week change)

Approve 45 (+2)
Disapprove 53 (nc)

Strongly approve 31 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 45 (-1)

Impeachment inquiry: Approve 53, Disapprove 44

Impeach and remove Trump: Yes 49 (+6), No 46 (-3)

Biden 50, Trump 41 (51/42 in July)
Warren 50, Trump 42 (48/43 in July)

Certain to vote for Trump 34
Certain to vote against Trump 46
Depends on Democratic nominee 17

GCB: D 49, R 42

[Brittain33]

Biden 51 (+1), Trump 39 (-1)
Warren 46 (-4), Trump 41 (+1)
Sanders 49 (nc), Trump 41 (+1)
Buttigieg 41, Trump 41 (not asked l

Well, that's new and exciting. Interesting bit of noise.

[Cinemark]

So far, it doesnt seem like Trump got much of a Baghdadi bump.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

So far, it doesnt seem like Trump got much of a Baghdadi bump.

It hurt him overall, because everyone knew he was full of poo-poo.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup, Oct. 14-31, 1506 adults (2-week change)

Approve 41 (+2)
Disapprove 57 (nc)

Remove Trump?

Yes 51 (-1)
No 48 (+2)

[Cinemark]

Monmouth University:
Approve - 43%(+2)
Disapprove - 51%(-2)

Impeachment:

Approve - 44%(=)
Disapprove - 51%(-1)

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_US_110519/

As Monmouth's twitter notes, Trump's numbers continue to be in a very narrow range. So, I'd chalk up this movement to MoE, but could be a Bagdadhi bump I guess.

Edit: Thank you GeorgiaModerate. I'm posting on my phone so hard to get all the details.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Monmouth University:
Approve - 43%(+2)
Disapprove - 51%(-2)

Impeachment:

Approve - 44%(=)
Disapprove - 51%(-1)

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_US_110519/

As Monmouth's twitter notes, Trump's numbers continue to be in a very narrow range. So, I'd chalk up this movement to MoE, but could be a Bagdadhi bump I guess.

Here's a breakdown by adults (n=908) and RV (n=835):

Adults:

Approve 43 (+2)
Disapprove 51 (-2)

Impeachment inquiry:

Good idea 51 (+2)
Bad idea 44 (+1)

Remove Trump?

Yes 44 (nc)
No 51 (-1)


RV:

Approve 45 (+2)
Disapprove 52 (-1)

Impeachment inquiry:

Good idea 52 (+3)
Bad idea 44 (nc)

Remove Trump:

Yes 45 (+1)
No 52 (nc)

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Back to the mid 40s lol  (RCP AVG at 43.5% - with a couple outliers at 39% about to be edged out).

These threads are a joke, wishcasting Trump’s demise.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Back to the mid 40s lol  (RCP AVG at 43.5% - with a couple outliers at 39% about to be edged out).

These threads are a joke, wishcasting Trump’s demise.

538's average, which uses a better technique, has Trump approval at 41.4/54.6.  But keep relying on RCP's simplistic average if it makes you feel better.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Back to the mid 40s lol  (RCP AVG at 43.5% - with a couple outliers at 39% about to be edged out).

These threads are a joke, wishcasting Trump’s demise.

538's average, which uses a better technique, has Trump approval at 41.4/54.6.  But keep relying on RCP's simplistic average if it makes you feel better.

So simplistic that RCP got 2016 closer than the egotistical Nate’s 538. Right.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Nate calls the 2008 election (easiest to call) and he’s seen as a god. He ducks up the 2016 election it’s all deflection “well no he didn’t predict per se he was giving the odds and 30% chance isn’t 0 blah blah blah”.....You can’t have it both ways, if he gets praised when he gets it right, he bears responsibility when he does indeed get it wrong.

[emailking]

Back to the mid 40s lol  (RCP AVG at 43.5% - with a couple outliers at 39% about to be edged out).

These threads are a joke, wishcasting Trump’s demise.

538's average, which uses a better technique, has Trump approval at 41.4/54.6.  But keep relying on RCP's simplistic average if it makes you feel better.

So simplistic that RCP got 2016 closer than the egotistical Nate’s 538. Right.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Nate calls the 2008 election (easiest to call) and he’s seen as a god. He ducks up the 2016 election it’s all deflection “well no he didn’t predict per se he was giving the odds and 30% chance isn’t 0 blah blah blah”.....You can’t have it both ways, if he gets praised when he gets it right, he bears responsibility when he does indeed get it wrong.

He didn't "get it wrong" and any praise is, or should be, due to the methodology. He has not forecast a 100% chance in a Presidential race, so he cannot be either right or wrong. There isn't a "both ways" about it, that's the only way.

[Cinemark]

Sometimes I think the people on this forum dont really care about polling.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Sometimes I think the people on this forum dont really care about polling.

I think it's more a case that many of them don't understand what polling can and can't tell you, and this causes them to either have too much faith in polls or not enough.

[GP270watch]

 The 2016 popular vote polling was not even off. Trump did a little better than expected but well within the margin of error. Trump just got the exact breakdown he needed thanks to our antiquated electoral process.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Nov. 3-5, 1500 adults including 1201 RV

Adults:

Approve 41 (+1)
Disapprove 50 (-3)

Strongly approve 26 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 41 (-2)

Generic D 47 (+6), Trump 41 (+6) - this looks strange; maybe a copy/paste error from the RV results?

Impeach Trump: Yes 46 (nc), No 39 (nc)

Remove Trump: Yes 46 (-1), No 40 (nc)


RV:

Approve 45 (nc)
Disapprove 53 (nc)

Strongly approve 32 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 45 (-1)

Generic D 47 (-1), Trump 41 (nc)

Impeach Trump: Yes 49 (+1), No 43 (nc)

Remove Trump: Yes 50 (+1), No 43 (nc)

GCB (RV only): D 47 (nc), R 41 (nc)

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

The 2016 popular vote polling was not even off. Trump did a little better than expected but well within the margin of error. Trump just got the exact breakdown he needed thanks to our antiquated electoral process.

The argument that Trump lost the popular vote is completely irrelevant. For the last 250 years the United States has an electoral college system - every presidential candidate understood and understands those rules and the system at play.

Campaigns are waged on the knowledge that it’s an EC system. If you went to merely a popular vote, campaigns would fight differently thereby making the PV outcome unpredictable within our current context.

In the meantime, I’ll call the Wambuiance for all the hissy fits about not winning a fair election.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The 2016 popular vote polling was not even off. Trump did a little better than expected but well within the margin of error. Trump just got the exact breakdown he needed thanks to our antiquated electoral process.

The argument that Trump lost the popular vote is completely irrelevant. For the last 250 years the United States has an electoral college system - every presidential candidate understood and understands those rules and the system at play.

Campaigns are waged on the knowledge that it’s an EC system. If you went to merely a popular vote, campaigns would fight differently thereby making the PV outcome unpredictable within our current context.

In the meantime, I’ll call the Wambuiance for all the hissy fits about not winning a fair election.

His point -- in a discussion about polling -- was that the polling was quite accurate on the 2016 PV.  If anyone is throwing a hissy fit in the above exchange, it's you.

Past time to put you back on Ignore.  Somebody let me know if he ever grows up.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Sean Hannity slams Fox News polling:

Sean Hannity said on his syndicated radio show Tuesday that he agreed with President Trump's criticism of Fox News polling, arguing it was "oversampling" Democrats.
 
Hannity, who is also a Fox News host, criticized the polling methodology used by Fox News, calling it "really wrong" compared to other recent surveys measuring the popularity of Trump and Democratic presidential candidates like former Vice President Joe Biden, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.).

https://thehill.com/homenews/media/469213-hannity-slams-fox-news-polling-on-radio-show

[GP270watch]

His point -- in a discussion about polling -- was that the polling was quite accurate on the 2016 PV. 

I thought this was fairly obvious but thank you.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Sean Hannity slams Fox News polling:

Sean Hannity said on his syndicated radio show Tuesday that he agreed with President Trump's criticism of Fox News polling, arguing it was "oversampling" Democrats.
 
Hannity, who is also a Fox News host, criticized the polling methodology used by Fox News, calling it "really wrong" compared to other recent surveys measuring the popularity of Trump and Democratic presidential candidates like former Vice President Joe Biden, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.).

https://thehill.com/homenews/media/469213-hannity-slams-fox-news-polling-on-radio-show

The 2020 election will also have terrible methodology and oversample Democrats.