Trump approval ratings thread 1.5

[Dr. Arch]

Civiqs, Sep. 21-24, 1548 RV

Approve 41
Disapprove 54

Warren 48, Trump 44
Biden 47, Trump 43
Sanders 46, Trump 44
Harris 44, Trump 44

There's at least a couple of polls now where Warren is doing better than Biden in general election matchups, which provides reasonable evidence that Biden's numbers were not exclusive to him, but rather an overall product of the support he presently had.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I’d imagine the undecideds are pretty disapproving of Trump too

[GeorgiaModerate]

Global Strategy Group, Sep. 11-16, 1500 RV (change from July)

Approve 41 (-2)
Disapprove 57 (+1)

Strongly approve 23 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Virginia: University of Mary Washington, Sep. 3-15, 1009 adults

Approve 39
Disapprove 54

Biden 55, Trump 37
Warren 53, Trump 38
Sanders 53, Trump 38
Harris 50, Trump 38

[Dr. Arch]

Virginia: University of Mary Washington, Sep. 3-15, 1009 adults

Approve 39
Disapprove 54

Biden 55, Trump 37
Warren 53, Trump 38
Sanders 53, Trump 38
Harris 50, Trump 38

Safe D

[BlueSwan]

Virginia: University of Mary Washington, Sep. 3-15, 1009 adults

Approve 39
Disapprove 54

Biden 55, Trump 37
Warren 53, Trump 38
Sanders 53, Trump 38
Harris 50, Trump 38

That's nice!

[President Johnson]

Virginia: University of Mary Washington, Sep. 3-15, 1009 adults

Approve 39
Disapprove 54

Biden 55, Trump 37
Warren 53, Trump 38
Sanders 53, Trump 38
Harris 50, Trump 38

Freedom state! NoVa moderate suburbanites are fed up with Trump and want Uncle Joe.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Virginia: University of Mary Washington, Sep. 3-15, 1009 adults

Approve 39
Disapprove 54

Biden 55, Trump 37
Warren 53, Trump 38
Sanders 53, Trump 38
Harris 50, Trump 38

Freedom state! NoVa moderate suburbanites are fed up with Trump and want Uncle Joe.

Can we stop calling him that? It makes me and I’m sure most everyone else cringe every time I see it.

And NOVA suburbanites are anything but moderate at this point lmao

[pbrower2a]

Virginia: University of Mary Washington, Sep. 3-15, 1009 adults

Approve 39
Disapprove 54

Biden 55, Trump 37
Warren 53, Trump 38
Sanders 53, Trump 38
Harris 50, Trump 38

Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over 50%
45-49% and negative


Note: these are colored green to the same shade if I believe that an independent or third-party nominee has a chance to win the state, but a Democrat has no meaningful chance. That is Utah for now.

tie (white)
45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher

When did a Democratic nominee for President last win Virginia by 10% or more?



1944, FDR vs. Dewey. -

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico, Sep. 24-26, 1640 RV

This is not their regular tracker, but I'm using the latest one (Sep. 20-22) for comparison.

Approve 41 (nc)
Disapprove 56 (+1)

Strongly approve 24 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 44 (+2)

As you may know, the first step toward removing a president from office is impeachment. Do you believe Congress should or should not begin impeachment proceedings to remove President Trump from office?

Yes 43
No 43

D: 79/12
I: 39/36
R: 10/85

And, if you had to pick one, which of the following is the main reason you believe Congress should begin impeachment proceedings?

Committed an impeachable offense 59
Unfit to serve and should be removed regardless of whether he committed an impeachable offense 37

[GeorgiaModerate]

NPR/Marist, Sep. 25, 864 adults (2-week change)

Approve 44 (+3)
Disapprove 53 (-1)

Strongly approve 31 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 39 (-6)

[Person Man]

NPR/Marist, Sep. 25, 864 adults (2-week change)

Approve 44 (+3)
Disapprove 53 (-1)

Strongly approve 31 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 39 (-6)

In some polls there’s was no change but in others, it’s as if Trump started getting better at his job. What gives?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

NPR/Marist, Sep. 25, 864 adults (2-week change)

Approve 44 (+3)
Disapprove 53 (-1)

Strongly approve 31 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 39 (-6)

In some polls there’s was no change but in others, it’s as if Trump started getting better at his job. What gives?

I for one would be ecstatic if Trump has a 44% approval rating on Election Day 2020

[HisGrace]

NPR/Marist, Sep. 25, 864 adults (2-week change)

Approve 44 (+3)
Disapprove 53 (-1)

Strongly approve 31 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 39 (-6)

In some polls there’s was no change but in others, it’s as if Trump started getting better at his job. What gives?

I for one would be ecstatic if Trump has a 44% approval rating on Election Day 2020

He could win with 44% approval especially if there's a significant third party vote. A couple points lower and I'd feel better about it.

[Person Man]

NPR/Marist, Sep. 25, 864 adults (2-week change)

Approve 44 (+3)
Disapprove 53 (-1)

Strongly approve 31 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 39 (-6)

In some polls there’s was no change but in others, it’s as if Trump started getting better at his job. What gives?

I for one would be ecstatic if Trump has a 44% approval rating on Election Day 2020

He could win with 44% approval especially if there's a significant third party vote. A couple points lower and I'd feel better about it.

All I know is that if it is determined he has improved in the coming weeks, he could have finally broken the electorate.

[AngryBudgie]

NPR/Marist, Sep. 25, 864 adults (2-week change)

Approve 44 (+3)
Disapprove 53 (-1)

Strongly approve 31 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 39 (-6)

In some polls there’s was no change but in others, it’s as if Trump started getting better at his job. What gives?

Im gonna say this again for the umpteenth time, Trump's baseline is around -10. Sometimes he goes above that, sometimes below that. But it always returns back to the -10 range. Mid August to early September had some of Trump's worst polling in a while. Now its returning to the baseline. That being said, the worst news for Trump has been since the 25th. We should wait for polling next week and beyond to see the impact.

[Person Man]

NPR/Marist, Sep. 25, 864 adults (2-week change)

Approve 44 (+3)
Disapprove 53 (-1)

Strongly approve 31 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 39 (-6)

In some polls there’s was no change but in others, it’s as if Trump started getting better at his job. What gives?

Im gonna say this again for the umpteenth time, Trump's baseline is around -10. Sometimes he goes above that, sometimes below that. But it always returns back to the -10 range. Mid August to early September had some of Trump's worst polling in a while. Now its returning to the baseline. That being said, the worst news for Trump has been since the 25th. We should wait for polling next week and beyond to see the impact.

This is probably his worst news in 6 months and perhaps almost as bad as it was when one of his terrorists killed a girl or when there were those difficult albeit temporary setbacks in his plan to give free money to rich people.

I will concede that him temporarily giving up on dealing with Iran, Venezuela, and NK has probably led to some "libertarian"-leaning and leftist-leaning voters to determine that he has improved as president.

Still. If people continue to think he is getting better at his job or at least not any worse at it in the coming days and weeks, that could be seen as strong evidence that Trump has at least won the tolerance of the American people by breaking their will.

[GeorgiaModerate]

NPR/Marist, Sep. 25, 864 adults (2-week change)

Approve 44 (+3)
Disapprove 53 (-1)

Strongly approve 31 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 39 (-6)

In some polls there’s was no change but in others, it’s as if Trump started getting better at his job. What gives?

Im gonna say this again for the umpteenth time, Trump's baseline is around -10. Sometimes he goes above that, sometimes below that. But it always returns back to the -10 range. Mid August to early September had some of Trump's worst polling in a while. Now its returning to the baseline. That being said, the worst news for Trump has been since the 25th. We should wait for polling next week and beyond to see the impact.

This is probably his worst news in 6 months and perhaps almost as bad as it was when one of his terrorists killed a girl or when there were those difficult albeit temporary setbacks in his plan to give free money to rich people.

I will concede that him temporarily giving up on dealing with Iran, Venezuela, and NK has probably led to some "libertarian"-leaning and leftist-leaning voters to determine that he has improved as president.

Still. If people continue to think he is getting better at his job or at least not any worse at it in the coming days and weeks, that could be seen as strong evidence that Trump has at least won the tolerance of the American people by breaking their will.

Budgie is right in all respects.  Keep in mind that polls are lagging indicators.  They're usually published at least a few days (sometimes more) after they were actually in the field.  And it takes a while for news to reach the average person and incorporated in their views.  Most people don't pay close attention to these things the way we do.  This is especially true in a fluid, fast-developing situation like this one.  Please don't views polls as snapshots of what the population is thinking at this moment.  It's more like what they were thinking a few days or more ago.

Also, there is always going to be variation between polls and in the same poll due to sampling differences.  Pay attention to the margin of error.  Trump's polls got a little worse for a few weeks.  They've recovered a bit (not entirely) since then.  This is entirely normal variation.

If Trump's approval in the 538 average (not RCP, which is overly reliant on Rasmussen) gets up to around 45, or down to around 40, then I'll start thinking there's actual movement among the public.  But not before that.

[pbrower2a]

NPR/Marist, Sep. 25, 864 adults (2-week change)

Approve 44 (+3)
Disapprove 53 (-1)

Strongly approve 31 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 39 (-6)

In some polls there’s was no change but in others, it’s as if Trump started getting better at his job. What gives?

I for one would be ecstatic if Trump has a 44% approval rating on Election Day 2020

He could win with 44% approval especially if there's a significant third party vote. A couple points lower and I'd feel better about it.

This time the Third Party figure who stands to win votes will be taking Right-leaning voters.

It's hard to predict what the discussion of impeachment will have upon the Presidential election.  

[Person Man]

NPR/Marist, Sep. 25, 864 adults (2-week change)

Approve 44 (+3)
Disapprove 53 (-1)

Strongly approve 31 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 39 (-6)

In some polls there’s was no change but in others, it’s as if Trump started getting better at his job. What gives?

Im gonna say this again for the umpteenth time, Trump's baseline is around -10. Sometimes he goes above that, sometimes below that. But it always returns back to the -10 range. Mid August to early September had some of Trump's worst polling in a while. Now its returning to the baseline. That being said, the worst news for Trump has been since the 25th. We should wait for polling next week and beyond to see the impact.

This is probably his worst news in 6 months and perhaps almost as bad as it was when one of his terrorists killed a girl or when there were those difficult albeit temporary setbacks in his plan to give free money to rich people.

I will concede that him temporarily giving up on dealing with Iran, Venezuela, and NK has probably led to some "libertarian"-leaning and leftist-leaning voters to determine that he has improved as president.

Still. If people continue to think he is getting better at his job or at least not any worse at it in the coming days and weeks, that could be seen as strong evidence that Trump has at least won the tolerance of the American people by breaking their will.

Budgie is right in all respects.  Keep in mind that polls are lagging indicators.  They're usually published at least a few days (sometimes more) after they were actually in the field.  And it takes a while for news to reach the average person and incorporated in their views.  Most people don't pay close attention to these things the way we do.  This is especially true in a fluid, fast-developing situation like this one.  Please don't views polls as snapshots of what the population is thinking at this moment.  It's more like what they were thinking a few days or more ago.

Also, there is always going to be variation between polls and in the same poll due to sampling differences.  Pay attention to the margin of error.  Trump's polls got a little worse for a few weeks.  They've recovered a bit (not entirely) since then.  This is entirely normal variation.

If Trump's approval in the 538 average (not RCP, which is overly reliant on Rasmussen) gets up to around 45, or down to around 40, then I'll start thinking there's actual movement among the public.  But not before that.

That's fair. I know there is some lag but now its been a few days a few polls with no movement have already been conducted after the 24th. Like I said, we will probably know something in a week and a lot more in a month. That's a fair assessment about what 538 says. if he's at like -7 or better, he probably has "grown on" the people and will eventually do as well as Bush or Obama did. If he goes down to like -15 in the next few weeks or months, he is on track for an ass whoopin next year.

[J. J.]

With the exception of two polla, Politico, which showed a loss of four points, and Harris, a one point loss, all others are showing a 1 to 10 point increase.  The 10 point jump is Emmeson, however.

[GeorgiaModerate]

With the exception of two polla, Politico, which showed a loss of four points, and Harris, a one point loss, all others are showing a 1 to 10 point increase.  The 10 point jump is Emmeson, however.

When one poll has a change of +10 while all others are +1 or lower, it's clear the +10 one is an outlier.

[J. J.]

With the exception of two polla, Politico, which showed a loss of four points, and Harris, a one point loss, all others are showing a 1 to 10 point increase.  The 10 point jump is Emmeson, however.

When one poll has a change of +10 while all others are +1 or lower, it's clear the +10 one is an outlier.

I think it is, but some of the others are showing 3 to 4 point boost.  Emmerson is not a particularly good poll, which is why identified it, specifically.  I'm looking at trending.

[emailking]

I want to point out, as I occasionally do, that outliers are important and still tell you something. If you have 5 polls that are within 3 points of each other and then you have another one that's 10 points higher, yes the latter is probably overestimating the support significantly. But it also means the other 5 are probably collectively underestimating it.

[BlueSwan]

I want to point out, as I occasionally do, that outliers are important and still tell you something. If you have 5 polls that are within 3 points of each other and then you have another one that's 10 points higher, yes the latter is probably overestimating the support significantly. But it also means the other 5 are probably collectively underestimating it.

This is very true. People are too quick to dismiss "outliers" as having no worth, which is not true.