Trump approval ratings thread 1.5

[GeorgiaModerate]

North Carolina: East Carolina U., Oct. 2-9, 1076 RV

Another North Carolina college jumps into the polling game.

Approve 45
Disapprove 47

Impeach and remove Trump:

Support 44
Oppose 50

Biden 50, Trump 46
Sanders 49, Trump 48
Trump 49, Warren 48
Trump 49, Harris 47
Trump 49, Buttigieg 47

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

UtahPolicy.com and Y2 Analytics:

28% of Utah voters say they “strongly” approve
17% “somewhat” approve
8% “somewhat” disapprove
47% “strongly” disapprove

Source

#BLUEUTAH

[GeorgiaModerate]

UtahPolicy.com and Y2 Analytics:

28% of Utah voters say they “strongly” approve
17% “somewhat” approve
8% “somewhat” disapprove
47% “strongly” disapprove

Source

#BLUEUTAH

#BLUTAH

[GeorgiaModerate]

Quinnipiac, Oct. 11-13, 1195 RV (1-week change)

Approve 41 (+1)
Disapprove 54 (nc)

Strongly approve 31 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 48 (+1)

Impeach and remove Trump?

Yes 46 (+1)
No 48 (-1)

Approve of impeachment inquiry?

Yes 51 (-2)
No 45 (+2)

Approve or disapprove of the way Trump is responding to the inquiry?

Approve 32 (-2)
Disapprove 59 (+2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

I don't usually mention the daily trackers unless they do something interesting.  If it holds up, this qualifies as interesting.

https://twitter.com/BillKristol/status/1183855224710225920

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ohio: Climate Nexus, Oct. 1-7, 1112 RV

Approve 45
Disapprove 53

Strongly approve 23
Strongly disapprove 41

Approve of impeachment inquiry?

Yes 52
No 48

Biden 53, Trump 47
Sanders 52, Trump 48
Warren 51, Trump 49
Harris 50, Trump 50
Buttigieg 50, Trump 50

[HisGrace]

A Democrat isn't winning Utah but if McMullin runs again I think he'd have a real shot.

[pbrower2a]

Biden leads Trump 48/46
Warren and Sanders tied with Trump

http://innovationohio.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/OhioResults.pdf

The poll was done on the behalf of a Ohio progressive group who wants to promote the idea that Ohio is still very winnable for democrats and that they should contest it heavily next year.

NB: PPP doesn’t have a good track record in the state, last year they had DeWine down -7 against Cordray
https://www.scribd.com/document/378736368/OH-Gov-PPP-for-Ohio-Democratic-Party-April-2018-May-2018

Ohio went for Trump by high single digits in a close race in 2016. In a close race in the popular vote nationwide, Trump wins Ohio decisively. Note that Trump is up 1% in this poll in approval, arguably the first time this has happened. Are Trump supporters rallying behind their leader, or are conservative Ohioans starting to see Donald Trump as the victim of a witch-hunt by the media and the "Deep State"?

This said, Ohio is not going to decide the 2020 Presidential election. In a nationwide election with about a 5% edge to the Democratic nominee, Ohio will be close. The Democrat will need an edge of at least 3% nationwide because some deep-blue (Atlas red) States, two of them gigantic in electoral votes (California and New York) could easily vote nearly 70-30 against Trump. See also Connecticut, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Washington. Such, and some small states that will do much the same, implies that in an even race for the President that the rest of the United States goes about 57-43, which means that Trump wins all the swing states except Colorado and Virginia.

Such is the mathematical reality of an even election in the popular vote. If Ohio goes against Trump, then the Democrat is in the range of 355-375 electoral votes.  

UtahPolicy.com and Y2 Analytics:

28% of Utah voters say they “strongly” approve
17% “somewhat” approve
8% “somewhat” disapprove
47% “strongly” disapprove

Source

When was the last time that Utah voters had a 55% disapproval for a Republican President? Probably for Hoover as the economy was in a tailspin, but there was no polling back in those days. Romney beat Obama handily in 2012 in Utah, but at this point in a hypothetical contest between Obama and Trump, Obama would win Utah because he is far closer to Mormon values in family life, character, and foreign policy. Mormons (LDS) take family values seriously, and Utah isn't exactly a rube state. Mormons also take religious freedom seriously because such fosters Mormon missionary efforts, and someone who takes swipes at non-Christian religions can easily turn against Mormons.

I can't speak for the LDS hierarchy, but I would not be shocked if it turned against Trump. This could be one time, one in which Mormons demonstrate that the GOP cannot take their vote for granted.  

Non-Mormons in Utah vote much like Californians, but... I suspect that Mormons are getting sick of an arrogant rogue as President. Note well: Trump actually got a smaller share of the Utah vote in 2012 than did Goldwater in 1964. Trump disapproval at 55% with 47% disapproval means that Trump could lose, especially if a Third-Party nominee takes away much of the conservative-leaning vote. The 45-55 split in approval and disapproval may be an exaggeration, but it is hard to explain it away. Offend the sensibilities of the majority of the people in that political subdivision... and lose it!

Ohio: Climate Nexus, Oct. 1-7, 1112 RV

Approve 45
Disapprove 53

Strongly approve 23
Strongly disapprove 41

Approve of impeachment inquiry?

Yes 52
No 48

Biden 53, Trump 47
Sanders 52, Trump 48
Warren 51, Trump 49
Harris 50, Trump 50
Buttigieg 50, Trump 50

After a paucity of polls from Ohio we get two in one day. Such requires averaging. That is the first time that I have had to average two results from the same state.

Approve 46.5, disapprove 50

I dislike decimals, but here I show an average of two polls. Trump cannot lose Ohio and win the re-election; if he is losing Ohio he is also losing Michigan and Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin is frosting on the cake.

Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over 50%
45-49% and negative

tie (white)

45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher

[forgotten manatee]

They're still too damn high.

[Badger]

Ohio, Public Policy Polling (PPP), October 10-11, 776 RV.

Approve: 48%
Disapprove: 47%
Not Sure: 5%

Support the Impeachment Inquiry: 49%
Oppose the Impeachment Inquiry: 47%
Not Sure: 5%

God damn it.....😡

[Badger]

Ohio: Climate Nexus, Oct. 1-7, 1112 RV

Approve 45
Disapprove 53

Strongly approve 23
Strongly disapprove 41

Approve of impeachment inquiry?

Yes 52
No 48

Biden 53, Trump 47
Sanders 52, Trump 48
Warren 51, Trump 49
Harris 50, Trump 50
Buttigieg 50, Trump 50

That's more like it!😊

[Person Man]

Ohio, Public Policy Polling (PPP), October 10-11, 776 RV.

Approve: 48%
Disapprove: 47%
Not Sure: 5%

Support the Impeachment Inquiry: 49%
Oppose the Impeachment Inquiry: 47%
Not Sure: 5%

God damn it.....😡

I guess people are still making money (or at least going into a sh**tload of debt thinking they are about to).

[pbrower2a]

Maine, PPP:

Trump approval 42-54 (does not change the map, so I give you no mew map. No distinction between ME-01 and ME-02 is made.

Impeach or not impeach -- 53-44 for.

Senator Susan Collins 35 approve 50 disapprove (bad spot to be in a year before the election, and this is a big fall from earlier polls).

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/PPP_Release_ME_101519.pdf

[Person Man]

Maine, PPP:

Trump approval 42-54 (does not change the map, so I give you no mew map. No distinction between ME-01 and ME-02 is made.

Impeach or not impeach -- 53-44 for.

Senator Susan Collins 35 approve 50 disapprove (bad spot to be in a year before the election, and this is a big fall from earlier polls).

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/PPP_Release_ME_101519.pdf

The only way that Collins wins back support from moderates in this state is to actually take a moderate that position when it counted. It would have probably saved her career to vote Nay on Kavanaugh. That would be have been the best long run thing and Trump would have still been able to get the seat eventually.

[pbrower2a]

Maine, PPP:

Trump approval 42-54 (does not change the map, so I give you no mew map. No distinction between ME-01 and ME-02 is made.

Impeach or not impeach -- 53-44 for.

Senator Susan Collins 35 approve 50 disapprove (bad spot to be in a year before the election, and this is a big fall from earlier polls).

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/PPP_Release_ME_101519.pdf

The only way that Collins wins back support from moderates in this state is to actually take a moderate that position when it counted. It would have probably saved her career to vote Nay on Kavanaugh. That would be have been the best long run thing and Trump would have still been able to get the seat eventually.

Yes -- with someone not so much a travesty. Kavanaugh was proof that Republicans could stick it to Democrats. There had better be more to any political, business, or personal decision than to "stick it to" someone.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup, Oct. 1-13, 1526 adults (2-week change)

Approve 39 (-1)
Disapprove 57 (+1)

Should Trump be impeached and removed from office? (change from June)

Yes 52 (+7)
No 46 (-7)

[Cinemark]

Trump is at his lowest point since February in the RCP aggregate(even more noteworthy because of Rasmussens +1 slightly inflating said aggregate).

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Oct. 13-15, 1500 adults including 1136 RV

Adults:

Approve 39 (-4)
Disapprove 51 (+2)

Strongly approve 24 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 42 (+4)

Generic D 41 (+1), Trump 36 (-1)

Impeach Trump: Yes 47, No 38 (not asked last week, but approval of impeachment inquiry was 45/42)

Remove Trump: Yes 48 (+3), No 37 (-2) +2


RV:

Approve 42 (-4)
Disapprove 55 (+3)

Strongly approve 28 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 47 (+3)

Generic D 49 (+2), Trump 40 (-2)

Impeach Trump: Yes 53, No 40 (approval of inquiry was 50/46 last week)

Remove Trump: Yes 53 (+5), No 40 (-4) +4

GCB (RV only): D 49 (+3), R 39 (-3)


Edited to fix a couple of flipped signs.

[Person Man]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Oct. 13-15, 1500 adults including 1136 RV

Adults:

Approve 39 (-4)
Disapprove 51 (+2)

Strongly approve 24 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 42 (+4)

Generic D 41 (+1), Trump 36 (-1)

Impeach Trump: Yes 47, No 38 (not asked last week, but approval of impeachment inquiry was 45/42)

Remove Trump: Yes 48 (+3), No 37 (-2)


RV:

Approve 42 (-4)
Disapprove 55 (+3)

Strongly approve 28 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 47 (+3)

Generic D 49 (+2), Trump 40 (-2)

Impeach Trump: Yes 53, No 40 (approval of inquiry was 50/46 last week)

Remove Trump: Yes 53 (+5), No 40 (-4)

GCB (RV only): D 49 (+3), R 39 (-3)

Ow...

Trump is at his lowest point since February in the RCP aggregate(even more noteworthy because of Rasmussens +1 slightly inflating said aggregate).

Didn't they have Republicans winning the popular vote last year by like 3?

[pbrower2a]

Iowa, Emerson:

President Trump holds a 47% disapproval and a 44% approval rating in Iowa while the Republican Governor Kim Reynolds is at 39% approval and 35% disapproval. Broken down, the President has a 52% disapproval among women, with a 39% approval, as compared to a 42% disapproval among men, with a 51% approval. A plurality of voters - 48 % - oppose impeachment with 42% supporting impeachment (n=829, +/- 3.3%).  


President Trump holds a 47% disapproval and a 44% approval rating in Iowa while the Republican Governor Kim Reynolds is at 39% approval and 35% disapproval. Broken down, the President has a 52% disapproval among women, with a 39% approval, as compared to a 42% disapproval among men, with a 51% approval. A plurality of voters - 48 % - oppose impeachment with 42% supporting impeachment (n=829, +/- 3.3%).

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/iowa-2020-dead-heat-with-biden-and-warren-mayor-pete-continues-to-build-and-sanders-slides

Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over 50%
45-49% and negative

tie (white)

45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Those impeachment numbers for Iowa disappoint me, and bodes a bad sign for Democrats chances in the state next year in my opinion.

[Cinemark]

Those impeachment numbers for Iowa disappoint me, and bodes a bad sign for Democrats chances in the state next year in my opinion.

Emerson has been one of Trump's better polls. That being said, Iowa voted for Trump by ten points.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Those impeachment numbers for Iowa disappoint me, and bodes a bad sign for Democrats chances in the state next year in my opinion.

Emerson has been one of Trump's better polls. That being said, Iowa voted for Trump by ten points.

Not to mention Iowa is a terrible pollster, regardless.

[Gass3268]

Really bad numbers for Trump in Minnesota:

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1185770885657038849?s=20

[pbrower2a]

So much for any idea that Trump has picked up credibility in Minnesota that will help him win the state. as if the 2018 midterm elections weren't enough to convince us.