Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[Pollster]

Dems need to not only tie MTG/QAnon to both Loeffler and Perdue but also hit both of them HARD for the insider training stuff. There should be nonstop ads about that.

Agreed. And that should even be a tactic going forward for Democrats. Make Boebert, Taylor-Greene, and others a Republican liability like they made The Squad to us.

The difference is that Taylor Greene is simply crazy / dumb, AOC / Omar on the other hand are not crazy nor stupid, they are toxic because they are basically extreme far left.

A better analogy for Taylor Greene is probably Maxine Waters.

Sorry, but comparing Maxine Waters (a longtime community servant who would've probably gone unrecognizable in a lineup before 2017, when right-wing media caricatured her as a typical "angry Black woman") to MTG (a carpetbagger who owes her political career to her support of a conspiracy theory about Satan-worshipping pedophiles that has already motivated domestic terror attempts and is far more toxic than the left wing of the Democratic party) is among the stupidest non-olawakandi takes I've read on this forum.

Are you seriously defending Maxine Waters? She's one of the most ignorant, corrupt, and self-serving members of either House of Congress, and hasn't done anything to benefit her constituents during her nearly thirty years in Congress. A "community servant"? Waters is only a "community servant" when it's for the sake of earning publicity and benefiting her family. And I'm saying this as a black person.

The suggestion of the original post was that there is some kind of equivalency between Waters and Greene because they both appear to be "crazy/dumb," despite the fact that Waters earned this reputation by being swept up in meme culture and caricaturization after decades of being a non-factor, while Greene immediately rose to semi-prominence as a willing proponent of a violent, anti-semitic conspiracy theory.

I certainly think Marjorie Taylor-Greene is an utterly reprehensible character, and I would agree that she's risen to prominence much faster than Waters did. But you described Maxine Waters as if she were some kind of dedicated, caring motherly figure, devoted to her constituents and to her office, who has been wrongly demeaned by Republicans, when she is anything but.

"Community servant" and "public servant" are job descriptions that I feel are often romanticized. I intended it as a descriptor of a government official, not any type of compliment (or insult), and have no strong feelings in any direction about Maxine Waters. I apologize for that confusion.

[Calthrina950]

Dems need to not only tie MTG/QAnon to both Loeffler and Perdue but also hit both of them HARD for the insider training stuff. There should be nonstop ads about that.

Agreed. And that should even be a tactic going forward for Democrats. Make Boebert, Taylor-Greene, and others a Republican liability like they made The Squad to us.

The difference is that Taylor Greene is simply crazy / dumb, AOC / Omar on the other hand are not crazy nor stupid, they are toxic because they are basically extreme far left.

A better analogy for Taylor Greene is probably Maxine Waters.

Sorry, but comparing Maxine Waters (a longtime community servant who would've probably gone unrecognizable in a lineup before 2017, when right-wing media caricatured her as a typical "angry Black woman") to MTG (a carpetbagger who owes her political career to her support of a conspiracy theory about Satan-worshipping pedophiles that has already motivated domestic terror attempts and is far more toxic than the left wing of the Democratic party) is among the stupidest non-olawakandi takes I've read on this forum.

Are you seriously defending Maxine Waters? She's one of the most ignorant, corrupt, and self-serving members of either House of Congress, and hasn't done anything to benefit her constituents during her nearly thirty years in Congress. A "community servant"? Waters is only a "community servant" when it's for the sake of earning publicity and benefiting her family. And I'm saying this as a black person.

The suggestion of the original post was that there is some kind of equivalency between Waters and Greene because they both appear to be "crazy/dumb," despite the fact that Waters earned this reputation by being swept up in meme culture and caricaturization after decades of being a non-factor, while Greene immediately rose to semi-prominence as a willing proponent of a violent, anti-semitic conspiracy theory.

I certainly think Marjorie Taylor-Greene is an utterly reprehensible character, and I would agree that she's risen to prominence much faster than Waters did. But you described Maxine Waters as if she were some kind of dedicated, caring motherly figure, devoted to her constituents and to her office, who has been wrongly demeaned by Republicans, when she is anything but.

This seems like an unfair characterization. You may not like Waters and her personality or politics, but she appears to be a normal civil servant working for her district?

Maxine Waters doesn't even live in her district, and was investigated by the House Ethics Committee for a bank deal, involving herself and her husband, that she participated in soon after the financial collapse of 2008.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Dems need to not only tie MTG/QAnon to both Loeffler and Perdue but also hit both of them HARD for the insider training stuff. There should be nonstop ads about that.

Agreed. And that should even be a tactic going forward for Democrats. Make Boebert, Taylor-Greene, and others a Republican liability like they made The Squad to us.

The difference is that Taylor Greene is simply crazy / dumb, AOC / Omar on the other hand are not crazy nor stupid, they are toxic because they are basically extreme far left.

A better analogy for Taylor Greene is probably Maxine Waters.

Sorry, but comparing Maxine Waters (a longtime community servant who would've probably gone unrecognizable in a lineup before 2017, when right-wing media caricatured her as a typical "angry Black woman") to MTG (a carpetbagger who owes her political career to her support of a conspiracy theory about Satan-worshipping pedophiles that has already motivated domestic terror attempts and is far more toxic than the left wing of the Democratic party) is among the stupidest non-olawakandi takes I've read on this forum.

Are you seriously defending Maxine Waters? She's one of the most ignorant, corrupt, and self-serving members of either House of Congress, and hasn't done anything to benefit her constituents during her nearly thirty years in Congress. A "community servant"? Waters is only a "community servant" when it's for the sake of earning publicity and benefiting her family. And I'm saying this as a black person.

The suggestion of the original post was that there is some kind of equivalency between Waters and Greene because they both appear to be "crazy/dumb," despite the fact that Waters earned this reputation by being swept up in meme culture and caricaturization after decades of being a non-factor, while Greene immediately rose to semi-prominence as a willing proponent of a violent, anti-semitic conspiracy theory.

I certainly think Marjorie Taylor-Greene is an utterly reprehensible character, and I would agree that she's risen to prominence much faster than Waters did. But you described Maxine Waters as if she were some kind of dedicated, caring motherly figure, devoted to her constituents and to her office, who has been wrongly demeaned by Republicans, when she is anything but.

This seems like an unfair characterization. You may not like Waters and her personality or politics, but she appears to be a normal civil servant working for her district?

Maxine Waters doesn't even live in her district, and was investigated by the House Ethics Committee for a bank deal, involving herself and her husband, that she participated in soon after the financial collapse of 2008.

Waters is a prolific pork barreller but only lives a mile or so outside her district because its boundaries moved thanks to redistricting.

[Calthrina950]

Dems need to not only tie MTG/QAnon to both Loeffler and Perdue but also hit both of them HARD for the insider training stuff. There should be nonstop ads about that.

Agreed. And that should even be a tactic going forward for Democrats. Make Boebert, Taylor-Greene, and others a Republican liability like they made The Squad to us.

The difference is that Taylor Greene is simply crazy / dumb, AOC / Omar on the other hand are not crazy nor stupid, they are toxic because they are basically extreme far left.

A better analogy for Taylor Greene is probably Maxine Waters.

Sorry, but comparing Maxine Waters (a longtime community servant who would've probably gone unrecognizable in a lineup before 2017, when right-wing media caricatured her as a typical "angry Black woman") to MTG (a carpetbagger who owes her political career to her support of a conspiracy theory about Satan-worshipping pedophiles that has already motivated domestic terror attempts and is far more toxic than the left wing of the Democratic party) is among the stupidest non-olawakandi takes I've read on this forum.

Are you seriously defending Maxine Waters? She's one of the most ignorant, corrupt, and self-serving members of either House of Congress, and hasn't done anything to benefit her constituents during her nearly thirty years in Congress. A "community servant"? Waters is only a "community servant" when it's for the sake of earning publicity and benefiting her family. And I'm saying this as a black person.

The suggestion of the original post was that there is some kind of equivalency between Waters and Greene because they both appear to be "crazy/dumb," despite the fact that Waters earned this reputation by being swept up in meme culture and caricaturization after decades of being a non-factor, while Greene immediately rose to semi-prominence as a willing proponent of a violent, anti-semitic conspiracy theory.

I certainly think Marjorie Taylor-Greene is an utterly reprehensible character, and I would agree that she's risen to prominence much faster than Waters did. But you described Maxine Waters as if she were some kind of dedicated, caring motherly figure, devoted to her constituents and to her office, who has been wrongly demeaned by Republicans, when she is anything but.

This seems like an unfair characterization. You may not like Waters and her personality or politics, but she appears to be a normal civil servant working for her district?

Maxine Waters doesn't even live in her district, and was investigated by the House Ethics Committee for a bank deal, involving herself and her husband, that she participated in soon after the financial collapse of 2008.

Waters is a prolific pork barreller but only lives a mile or so outside her district because its boundaries moved thanks to redistricting.

I'll concede your point on that, but it doesn't change the thrust of what I'm arguing about Waters.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/FreeBeacon/status/1328806366228701189?s=19

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/FreeBeacon/status/1328806366228701189?s=19

LOL

He is lucky that GA has very few true swing voters and that most Biden voters are hardcore straight ticket democratic voters.

[Not Me, Us]

https://twitter.com/FreeBeacon/status/1328806366228701189?s=19

Warnock is actually amazing.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

https://twitter.com/FreeBeacon/status/1328806366228701189?s=19

LOL

He is lucky that GA has very few true swing voters and that most Biden voters are hardcore straight ticket democratic voters.

Very lucky

[Xing]

https://twitter.com/FreeBeacon/status/1328806366228701189?s=19

LOL

He is lucky that GA has very few true swing voters and that most Biden voters are hardcore straight ticket democratic voters.

Now you know how many of us Democrats feel about 90% of Republicans .

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/NRSC/status/1328422045147869185

OK this ad actually makes Ossoff and Warnock look way cooler imo

Also if you look up the video of that dude who got bopped it turns out he was a massive POS who was picking fights and pushing smaller people and women around so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[iceman]

If both Ossoff and Warnock wins, who would be the Senior senator?

[lfromnj]

If both Ossoff and Warnock wins, who would be the Senior senator?

Ossoff-based on last name alphabet.

[BudgieForce]

If both Ossoff and Warnock wins, who would be the Senior senator?

I think Warnock because he's running to finish Isakson's term. Atleast that was the case in for Dianne Feinstien and Barbara Boxer in 1992.

[brucejoel99]

If both Ossoff and Warnock wins, who would be the Senior senator?

I think Warnock because he's running to finish Isakson's term. Atleast that was the case in for Dianne Feinstien and Barbara Boxer in 1992.

That was the case for Feinstein/Boxer because Feinstein - being the victor in the special election - was able to be seated as soon as California certified their results, whereas Boxer had to actually wait for Jan. 3rd to come around before she could take office. That won't be an issue here, though, since the same-day runoffs means that the results will be certified on the same day & that - in the event of an Ossoff/Warnock victory - they'll be sworn-in on the same day, meaning Senate seniority tiebreakers come into play (see: lfromnj's answer).

[Bomster]

I feel like both of these races will go R. Ossof and Warnock may be decent candidates but in a runoff with a completely different electorate the Republicans will be favored. Especially when control of the Senate is on the line.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I feel like both of these races will go R. Ossof and Warnock may be decent candidates but in a runoff with a completely different electorate the Republicans will be favored. Especially when control of the Senate is on the line.

That's what I'm thinking too, at least what my gut tells me, but this really is an unprecedented, and we could see an unexpectedly lopsided result in either direction, and that'll reflect who did a better job at turning out their base.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Wow, last name doesn't get used much as a tiebreaker. A quick check shows that it has happened before, I found it used for the Missouri Senators seated in 1821. It looks like it was also used for the Florida Senators seated in 1936. In the Florida case, it was a double special election. There are probably some others.

[Yellowhammer]

These races are tilt R, maybe you could make a case for lean R for Perude. This state has become even more hyper-polarized over the last few years, more so than even LA, MS, and AL. It seems most Georgia congressional R’s uniformly outran Trump by a couple points and that’s it, regardless of incumbency or location (rural vs suburban).
It’s getting to be pretty much impossible for any Republican to ever win by more than ~5% without some kind of miraculous dem turnout implosion or a Mooreing.

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

https://twitter.com/FreeBeacon/status/1328806366228701189?s=19

What he said is true, according to Scripture; you cannot serve both God and anything else, regardless of what that is. You certainly can't serve God and money, although Warnock never said that people with money or people who serve in the military can't be Christians.

But of course, considering that most American Christians don't understand what their own religion teaches, these words will be taken out of context...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This isn't gonna hurt Warnock, the Military is becoming one big Secular institution, that's why the military let LGBT like Buttigieg serve to them

There are are differences between Secular Christians that look to urban poverty and help the poor and traditionalist who wear religion on their sleeve anyways. Dr. Martin Luther Kng v Pat Robertson

[SCNCmod]

Today is the 1st day you can request a vote-by-mail ballot for the GA runoff.  It will be interesting to follow vote-by-mail numbers in the coming days.

I still think higher than normal participation by AA voters in the runoff (due to the chance of electing Georgia's 1st Black Senator) ... & ... Dems being better equipped to achieve high vote-by-mail participation (given the Jan 5th election day coming at a very busy time of year)... will result in Dems greatly outperforming past runoffs, giving them at least a 50/50 chance of winning.

I also still think that all of the unknown factors regarding turnout, will ultimately break towards 1 party- and that party will win both Senate seats.

[SCNCmod]

New polling numbers out from Fox 5/ Insider Advantage (Nov 17)...

Perdue 49 ... Ossoff 49   (tie)

Warnock 49 ... Loeffler 48   (Warnock +1)

**For what it's worth- Insider Advantage was one of the closer polls in the Georgia Presidential race (poll taken Nov 1st ... showed Trump +2).. so it overestimated Republican candidate by 2 pts.


Here is a quote from the pollster:

InsiderAdvantage Chairman Matt Towery said, “The challenge for the two Republicans will be how to hold on to the over ten percent level of support they have from African American voters, while at the same time trying to convert suburban Atlanta white voters who have drifted away from the GOP.”

Towery said the current ad campaign by Sen. Loeffler against Rev. Warnock may have opened a can of worms that could lead to an erosion of that fragile level of support.

“The two Republican campaigns have decided to run in tandem and as a result, any mistake by one campaign may impact both,” Towery said. “Warnock will be the centerpiece of attempting to drive African American vote higher than it was in the General Election, which is essential for a win for both Ossoff and him.”

“At this time I would say that the Republican candidates might both be slight underdogs as of now,” Towery said. “That will come as a shock to people who have not followed the shift in demographics and voting patterns in Georgia. Either race can be won by either party’s nominee.”

“Times have changed in Georgia where runoffs for Republicans were considered a lock for them. That is clearly no longer the case,” said former pollster for the Reagan White House Craig Keshishian, who has joined the InsiderAdvantage team.

The poll also took a look at Gov. Brian Kemp’s current approval rating which appears to have dropped significantly. It shows that only 37% of the likely voters surveyed approved of the job the governor was doing during his time in office with 44% disapproving and 19% saying they were not sure.

[wbrocks67]

I mean, that poll looks about right. This is going to be close either way. A true tossup. And Perdue may be making a critical mistake linking with Loeffler. Obviously we know why he's doing it but I'm sure he's not really happy about having the albatross of her around his neck (though it's clear the momentum started shifting towards Ossoff after Perdue's own stupid Kamala remark)

The thing is, Trump is not out office yet. So even though he lost, he's still a part of the conversation and still tied to the GOP. So I would expect the College+ whites who came out in droves to vote against him are likely still going to vote this time as a proxy against him, like in 2018.

If this runoff was in like, March, it may be a different story.

[SCNCmod]

I still think in the end- the election is going to come down to:

1) How high is AA turnout (potentially very high... given the chance of the 1st AA Senator from Georgia & given the Republican focus on race in ads against Warnock- which will no doubt hit a nerve with AA voters)

2) How well are Dems able to utilize their Vote-by-mail & early-in-person-vote advantage... to bank a solid lead, going into the Jan 5th election day (which may be a busy time of year for many typical election day voters... and to a lesser extent, may be affected by a likely increase in covid breakout).

[Calthrina950]

These races are tilt R, maybe you could make a case for lean R for Perude. This state has become even more hyper-polarized over the last few years, more so than even LA, MS, and AL. It seems most Georgia congressional R’s uniformly outran Trump by a couple points and that’s it, regardless of incumbency or location (rural vs suburban).
It’s getting to be pretty much impossible for any Republican to ever win by more than ~5% without some kind of miraculous dem turnout implosion or a Mooreing.

It's astonishing to think that Johnny Isakson won by nearly 14% just four years ago, and by ~20% in both 2004 and 2010. Sonny Perdue won reelection as Governor in 2006 by ~20%, and there were downballot Republicans throughout the 2000s and 2010s who consistently won by double-digit margins, some with over 60% of the vote! Obviously, those days are gone in Georgia. The state now seems to potentially be headed down the path of Virginia, with the Atlanta Metropolitan Area the analogue to Northern Virginia, and like Northern Virginia, outvoting the rural and exurban areas of the state.