Scottish Parliamentary Elections (May 5, 2011)

[afleitch]

I disagree. The SNP are in an extremely advantageous position now that there is a Conservative government. Bear in mind that we are 3 years in to their minority government and they are still polling strongly in Holyrood voting intention even as their support slumped in Westminster voting intention in the weeks leading up to the General Election. There are two different games to be played by the Scottish electorate. While no one should rely on anecdotal evidence people I understand to be big SNP supporters without hesitation backed Labour at Westminster. Even I voted Tory though I'm backing the SNP in a similar constituency vote next year.

The 'crises' that have rocked the SNP only register in the media; they don't register in public. Indeed even the most ardent SNP supporters would suggest Salmond is a bit to pleased with himself, but he is still the preferred choice for First Minister by far in the polls. Iain Gray is unknown. There is nothing to suggest that when he does become known he will be liked. My side have their own secret weapon in Annabel Goldie (the second favourite choice for FM in the last opinion poll )

If the Lib Dems take a hit because of the coalition, it would be ludicrous to suggest that North East Fife or Orkney will become prime Labour targets. The Lib Dems opposition in most of their seats are either the Tories or the SNP. Most of the rural core of SNP seats are also seats that Labour do not perform strongly in. I don't expect or anticipate that the SNP will loose Kilmarnock, or be under pressure even in Cunninghame North.

Scotland's love affair with Labour is strictly a Westminster affair.

[afleitch]

I fully expect Labour to gain seats.
But I wouldn't be so sure on the SNP losing many.

The SNP are most likely to loose a few constituency seats to Labour...but be compensated back again in the list. With the other parties the Tories are sheltered in their constituencies. In Ayr, Edinburgh Pentlands and Galloway they have built large personal votes. Notionally they gain Eastwood and despite Murphy's triumph last week as it's lost Barrhead and Neilston I don't see it flipping back easily. The Lib Dems are also protected in most of their seats as the main challenger is either the SNP or the Tories (Edinburgh politics is funny...and is incredidbly local so I have no idea what happens there twelve months down the line)

It's easily possible for Labour to be the largest party, but holding power is another matter. If relations between the Lib Dems and Labour break down, then they've lost their viable coalition partners. The SNP are only holding on as a minority party because of the tactical abstention of their non-Labour opponents at Holyrood. Likewise I doubt that the Tories could come to the same arrangement with Labour as they currently have with the SNP. If Labour are say a half dozen seats ahead of the SNP and can't form a coalition, they may struggle to form a secure minority administration in 1. Winning the FM vote and 2. Passing a budget. If the SNP could make an arrangement with the Tories they could form another minority government. At least for a short while.

If a year down the line we have a growing economy and a sense of 'things are getting better', Labour may not have much of a chance at gaining power at all.

[afleitch]

Most of the Tory seats are list seats.
Oh, and an LD seat where the SNP are the main challengers is an at-risk seat.

(Most of the rest is quite accurate, of course. And I wasn't thinking along the lines of *massive* Labour gains and a majority.)

One more thing to ponder though... why did the SNP do badly in Westminster? Perceived friendlyness with the London Tories anything to do with that? You figure?
Well, I do. I certainly do. (Worth noting they still gained votes pretty much wherever there wasn't a new tactical reason to vote for somebody else, btw. Just not very much.)

The public generally don't know about their relationship with the Tories at Holyrood; it's only those who are interested in this sort of thing that do The SNP started their steady decline (and Labour their rise) in the polls when the GE kicked off. Likewise the Lib Dems started off on par or lower than the Tories (14% with Populus at the start of the campaign) ) and built up in the second half of the campaign. Interestingly this didn't happen in Holyrood polls where the last poll put the SNP and Labour neck and neck. Scotland swung against the Tories at Westminster because that's what the election was about - Westminster.

[afleitch]

[afleitch]

A little off topic but.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gSLN4xGNilI&eurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fuser%2Fbaronsarwarofgovan%23p%2Fu%2F27%2FgSLN4xGNilI&feature=player_profilepage#!

Great documentary (lots of archive footage) on the 70's political scene in Scotland with devolution and the Govan work in etc

[afleitch]

TNS-BMRB used to be TNS-System Three, did they not? If so... um... hmm...

Not that I doubt that we're polling well in Scotland or anything, but I wouldn't pay much attention to those figures except for that...

Yes, probably best to disregard TNS for exactly those reasons :/

IIRC the Tories demise have been prophecised based on Holyrood pollings since 1999. Some polls in 2007 were giving us 10%. We got just under 17%. Same with the Lib Dems. So predicting their 'demise' post Coalition is even more difficult.

I have no doubt that Labour are ahead however there is a difference between Holyrood and Westminster voting habits. And popularity aside simply being in government will help the SNP in May. Also for the first time many SNP seats in particular have an incumbent and in some cases a popular one at that (Kenny Macaskill for example)

I don't at this stage expect a huge change in the constituency seats; at present I only have Labour to pick up Dunfermline, Stirling and Edinburgh Central and the SNP to pick up Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch.

There are two seats that cannot be predicted at all (until we know who is standing) and those are Glasgow Kelvin and Strathkelvin. Labour are favourites in both, however Strathkelvin would probably have been an SNP gain in 2007 without Jean Turner standing. Kelvin is of course a student politics free for all.

[afleitch]

Have redistributed results for the new constituencies been published yet?

Not 'officially' though I have a feeling Harry may have them!

I only know the % leads and the notionals as a result ( Labour down 3 seats as 1 abolished, Tories pick up Eastwood and the Lib Dems pick up Edinburgh Central)

The data is there; speaking of which I was sent 'rough' estimates for who would have won what under the '83-'92 boundaries.

Summarised it's SNP winning Aberdeen North (most of which is now in Central), Labour winning Clackmannan, SNP winning Linlithgow (due to it's protrusion towards Queensferry), Labour winning Edinburgh East, SNP winning Monklands East, SNP winning Strathkelvin (not sure about that one) and Bella being within a hair of taking West Renfrewshire (if she was on the ballot in the areas in Inverclyde that the seat once covered she probably would have pipped it). Hillhead would also have been close.

[afleitch]

Thank's Harry; tallies with what I have

[afleitch]

David Denver has released notionals

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/08_09_10_boundaryreport.pdf

However the BBC article is intersting;

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-11229792

However, the academic stressed that caution must be taken in interpreting the results. He pointed out that constituencies were now built from much larger, more diverse council wards, making it very difficult to offer projections.

And the notionals themselves? Not what we expected.

EDIT: He appears to have done them 'old school' rather than using available batch number date. However I have a feeling these will be seen as the 'official' notionals.

[afleitch]

[afleitch]

Some of those look to be radically different from the first set. By old school do you mean he used local government figures?

Yes; he takes time to explain how difficult it is to use them etc. What bugs me is that he is an expert in these things, if he's not used the Scottish Office's batch figures i'm concerned. As the BBC commissioned him, these will be seen as the official figures by the media.

[afleitch]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-11708001

George Galloway may stand in Glasgow list...

...which means a split hard left vote again and no MSP's elected

[afleitch]

Predictor now updated to take into account new boundaries. While the maps still shows the old seats once you input new figures (or simply click 'predict' as it is) it will display the new map and seat totals.

http://www.scotlandvotes.com/

[afleitch]

This is my current assessment of seats as they currently stand (not necessarily the position in 2007) I have not profiled 'safe' seats

Seats to Watch - Part I


Aberdeen Central - Toss-up SNP/LAB - Momentum LAB

Labour by a 'baw hair' in 2007, the Denver notionals has this as an SNP seat. However some 22% of this seat is from Aberdeen South and a fairly genteel part of the city too. As a result Denver has the seat as a three way marginal with the Lib Dems in contention; bear in mind that voters here still flirt with the Tories in council elections. There is a strong likelyhood that these voters, bearing in mind similar patterns elsewhere in urban politics in Scotland would have voted SNP in 2007. So Denver's assessment is probably correct. This makes the 2011 result difficult to predict. There will be a stronger swing to Labour in the northern part of this seat however I'm not confident enough to put this seat down as 'Lean Labour' just yet.


Aberdeen South and North Kincardine- Toss-up LIB/SNP - Momentum SNP

One to watch. This is a potential SNP pick up as the result of a Lib Dem bloodbath. Nicol Stephen, then party leader got a scare here in 2007. He is standing down ending a nearly two decade long association with Aberdeenshire politics. The new seat extends further south taking in the coastal towns along the A92 from Portlethen to Muchalls.


Aberdeenshire West - Lean LIB

This seat is the lanlocked rural rump of Aberdeenshire. The Lib Dem vote here is about 40% with the SNP on under 30% and the Tories on just under 25%. This is also a potential SNP gain from a Lib Dem downturn; the Tories too have a slim chance here but the Lib Dems are in the strongest position to retain this seat exploiting links they have been able to forge over the past 15 years.

Airdrie and Shotts - Lean LAB

Yeah. It 'leans'; in reality it's probably Safe Labour, but sectarian politics will always simmer below the surface here so I can't nudge it over to the safe column, not at least until the start of the campaign

Almond Valley - Toss-up SNP/LAB - Momentum LAB   

It's Livingston. It's marginal. It was one of only 2 hits out of 5 in the SNP's 'New Town strategy.' It's got a large, growing and young electorate with the fastest population growth in Scotland. It also has a good local MSP. However while Livingston proper may come through for the SNP, it's villages like Whitburn that the SNP need to be watch. Luckily for the SNP the longest new passenger railway line with stations built in Britain for nearly 100 years is just about to open linking Livingston (and Edinburgh) with Airdie (and Glasgow). However the national swing is probably enough to cancel out any net benefit here.

Argyll and Bute - Lean SNP

If the Lib Dem vote doesn't recover in the polls I may move this over to the Safe column...   

Caithness, Sutherland and Ross - Lean LIB   

The MSP's of both Lib Dem Highland seats will stand down next year. In this vastly redrawn seat the Lib Dems hold a majority of less than 9% with the SNP second and the other parties distantly behind. It is more vulnerable thatn you may think. It will be curious to see what the remnants of Maclennans old personal vote (yes...some still remains) will do.

Clackmannanshire and Dunblane- Toss-up SNP/LAB - Momentum SNP

Probably a better seat for the SNP to defend than Stirling. The seat takes in Dunblane and the Bridge of Allan and it's Tory vote. Local council politics affects what happens in Clackmannanshire proper over which the parties have little control and tactical voting in Dunblane (and there are enough Labour voters there too to make a difference) will decide who wins this seat.

Cunninghame North   - Lean SNP

Not a toss-up; the SNP would have walked this ultra marginal seat had a former SNP independent not stood in 2007. It's boundaries do not change. Provided the SNP get a clear run, this should become a good seat for them.

Dumfriesshire - Toss-up LAB/CON - Momentum LAB

Extremely popular local Labour MSP Elaine Murray, however it cannot be denied that she's lost a sizeable chunk of her vote here which will be lost in the Tory/SNP battleground seat next door. Then again her vote does nothing but climb. The Tories would have won this seat had it existed in 2003 but Labour would have won it in 2007. I think she'll be fine.

Dundee City East - Lean SNP   

Dundee is Labour at Westminster and SNP at Holyrood. However the notional SNP majority here is suprisingly strong; about 8%.

Dunfermline   - Lean Labour (LAB GAIN)

So yeah...

Eastwood - Lean CON

YOU CANNOT CREATE A SAFER TORY SEAT IN WEST CENTRAL SCOTLAND. YOU CAN'T. IT HAS AN ARSING NOTIONAL MAJORITY OF ABOUT 10 F#CKING PERCENT. IF THEY F#CK IT UP I SWEAR...

Edinburgh Central   - Lean LAB (LAB GAIN)

Students. Students. English Students. This is Labour held, but notionally Lib Dem. That will soon become a curious political footnote.

Edinburgh Eastern   - Toss-up - Momentum SNP

It's Kenny's seat. He's in serious trouble however as he's lost Musselburgh. He has gained favourable areas arcing through the estates to the south however this is where wild unexpected LAB-SNP swings took place in 2007. I fear they may correct themselves. I'm giving it to Kenny at the moment based on anectodal evidence (which I know I shouldn't) from people I know who live there; he's a popular MSP.

Edinburgh Southern - Lean LIB

I have no idea about this seat. I genuinely don't. It's a very neat and compact seat taking in pre post war expansion Edinburgh and as such it shifts more strongly in the direction of the Lib Dems. It has also lost much of the Edinburgh University student sprawl to Central which under the current climate is a very good thing. However can they hold it on current voting trends? This seat is the most 'middle class' in Edinburgh, even more so than the new Pentlands. Despite it being a battle between the Lib Dems and Labout, potentially all four parties have a shot here.

In Part 2 (of 2 )

Edinburgh Western
Falkirk West    
Glasgow Cathcart
Glasgow Kelvin
Glasgow Southside
Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley
Linlithgow
Mid Fife and Glenrothes
Midlothian North and Musselburgh    
Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale    
North East Fife
Perthshire South and Kinross-shire
Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch   
Stirling
Strathkelvin and Bearsden

[afleitch]

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2987

Labour majority.

Joke poll.

[afleitch]

So I take it the Tories aren't going to have a breakthrough in Scotland this year.

Given that they have 5 or 6 seats notionally if they can hold them they are doing well. In the Central Belt and the South of Scotland that's on par with how they performed in 1992. The only difference is that they have been replaced by the SNP in the north.

[afleitch]

Page 9 news in the Evneing Times today as Scottish Labour leader Iain Gray launches Labour's campaign.

No joke; I can't even find the story on the BBC

In other news, former Ayr MP and later South of Scotland MSP, Phil Gallie has died.

[afleitch]

The AV referendum result will apparently delay the result until the Saturday

http://scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/scotland/Holyrood-result-to-be-delayed.6706200.jp

If the use those %*£!ing machines again we'll know the result by next year

[afleitch]

Wendy Alexander will be standing down as an MSP

[afleitch]

Wendy Alexander will be standing down as an MSP

Not really surprising given everything. Interesting that she's doing so so late though; successful attempt to shaft someone internally?

Possibly.

She has lost alot her friends over the years (including Dewar) as the composition of the party has shifted. It is now effectively lead by the 'triumvirate' of Iain Gray (an empty suit), Andy Kerr and Tom McCabe who were briefing against her when she was leader. That's why Jack McConnell, another Alexander ally has stuck around for longer than was expected. They had hoped that 2011 could have seen an influx from defeated Labour candidates in 2010...who of course all got re-elected.

It's going to cause problems for the party at some point.

[afleitch]

Davena Rankin, active trade unionist and former Tory candidate for Glasgow East has, Labour claim defected to them. There has been no statement from her or from the Tories. She was on the Glasgow list for the party.

[afleitch]

She's Unison if I remember right, so wouldn't be entirely surprising if true.

---

Meanwhile, Bill Aitken has been resigned.

Yes; he had to go. Reading the transcript he was digging alot of holes and talking alot of bollocks. And his knowledge of Glasgow geography was quite worrying for a list MSP :/

[afleitch]

Wait - you mean that's not actually an area where prostitutes take their clients?

Not Renfrew Street on a Thursday (student night) night at midnight. You can't find a busier place at that time of night; being dragged off into Renfrew Lane is a possibility (at the back of the Savoy; pitch black). Bill Aitken laughed at the suggestion that could have happened as he said it was 'half a mile' away which beggars belief.

[afleitch]

So, unsurprisingly that MORI poll probably was an outlier.

EDIT: Though the big lead Salmond appears to have as preferred First Minister might yet turn the tides. Any ideas/remarks on that discrepancy?

Possibly. There are some concerns at what YouGov is doing to it's data; and if the Labour Region vote looks odd that is because it is.

The unweighted figures for the poll were;

Constituency Vote

SNP 41
LAB 28
CON 18
LIB 6

Regional List

SNP 34
LAB 26
CON 19
LIB 6
OTH 16

After weighting a 13pt SNP lead became a 9pt Labour one.

Once the internals are released it will be worth looking at again.

[afleitch]

I think with YouGov you should either take it or leave it; the way they poll largely involves taking inherently unrepresentative samples and making them 'look right' (and always has done; it's why they were a controversial company right from the start), rather than anything resembling normal polling methods.

Very true; while Ipsos-Mori do not have the grandest reputation amongst pollsters unlike YouGov and the System 3 successor (whatever the hell its called) I can walk through their tables and see what they are doing, even though in their poll I believe they overestimated SNP by a few poins. YouGov seem to change their methodology with each sucessive (and sporadic) poll which is unfortunate. The internals will be worth looking at anyway.

I tend to be mis-trusting of any poll that suggests Labour will outperform 1999.