This is my current assessment of seats as they currently stand (not necessarily the position in 2007) I have not profiled 'safe' seats
Seats to Watch - Part I
Aberdeen Central - Toss-up SNP/LAB - Momentum LABLabour by a 'baw hair' in 2007, the Denver notionals has this as an SNP seat. However some 22% of this seat is from Aberdeen South and a fairly genteel part of the city too. As a result Denver has the seat as a three way marginal with the Lib Dems in contention; bear in mind that voters here still flirt with the Tories in council elections. There is a strong likelyhood that these voters, bearing in mind similar patterns elsewhere in urban politics in Scotland would have voted SNP in 2007. So Denver's assessment is probably correct. This makes the 2011 result difficult to predict. There will be a stronger swing to Labour in the northern part of this seat however I'm not confident enough to put this seat down as 'Lean Labour' just yet.
Aberdeen South and North Kincardine- Toss-up LIB/SNP - Momentum SNPOne to watch. This is a potential SNP pick up as the result of a Lib Dem bloodbath. Nicol Stephen, then party leader got a scare here in 2007. He is standing down ending a nearly two decade long association with Aberdeenshire politics. The new seat extends further south taking in the coastal towns along the A92 from Portlethen to Muchalls.
Aberdeenshire West - Lean LIBThis seat is the lanlocked rural rump of Aberdeenshire. The Lib Dem vote here is about 40% with the SNP on under 30% and the Tories on just under 25%. This is also a potential SNP gain from a Lib Dem downturn; the Tories too have a slim chance here but the Lib Dems are in the strongest position to retain this seat exploiting links they have been able to forge over the past 15 years.
Airdrie and Shotts - Lean LABYeah. It 'leans'; in reality it's probably Safe Labour, but sectarian politics will always simmer below the surface here so I can't nudge it over to the safe column, not at least until the start of the campaign
Almond Valley - Toss-up SNP/LAB - Momentum LAB It's Livingston. It's marginal. It was one of only 2 hits out of 5 in the SNP's 'New Town strategy.' It's got a large, growing and young electorate with the fastest population growth in Scotland. It also has a good local MSP. However while Livingston proper may come through for the SNP, it's villages like Whitburn that the SNP need to be watch. Luckily for the SNP the longest new passenger railway line with stations built in Britain for nearly 100 years is just about to open linking Livingston (and Edinburgh) with Airdie (and Glasgow). However the national swing is probably enough to cancel out any net benefit here.
Argyll and Bute - Lean SNPIf the Lib Dem vote doesn't recover in the polls I may move this over to the Safe column...
Caithness, Sutherland and Ross - Lean LIB The MSP's of both Lib Dem Highland seats will stand down next year. In this vastly redrawn seat the Lib Dems hold a majority of less than 9% with the SNP second and the other parties distantly behind. It is more vulnerable thatn you may think. It will be curious to see what the remnants of Maclennans old personal vote (yes...some still remains) will do.
Clackmannanshire and Dunblane- Toss-up SNP/LAB - Momentum SNPProbably a better seat for the SNP to defend than Stirling. The seat takes in Dunblane and the Bridge of Allan and it's Tory vote. Local council politics affects what happens in Clackmannanshire proper over which the parties have little control and tactical voting in Dunblane (and there are enough Labour voters there too to make a difference) will decide who wins this seat.
Cunninghame North - Lean SNPNot a toss-up; the SNP would have walked this ultra marginal seat had a former SNP independent not stood in 2007. It's boundaries do not change. Provided the SNP get a clear run, this should become a good seat for them.
Dumfriesshire - Toss-up LAB/CON - Momentum LAB Extremely popular local Labour MSP Elaine Murray, however it cannot be denied that she's lost a sizeable chunk of her vote here which will be lost in the Tory/SNP battleground seat next door. Then again her vote does nothing but climb. The Tories would have won this seat had it existed in 2003 but Labour would have won it in 2007. I think she'll be fine.
Dundee City East - Lean SNP Dundee is Labour at Westminster and SNP at Holyrood. However the notional SNP majority here is suprisingly strong; about 8%.
Dunfermline - Lean Labour (LAB GAIN)So yeah...
Eastwood - Lean CONYOU CANNOT CREATE A SAFER TORY SEAT IN WEST CENTRAL SCOTLAND. YOU CAN'T. IT HAS AN ARSING NOTIONAL MAJORITY OF ABOUT 10 F#CKING PERCENT. IF THEY F#CK IT UP I SWEAR...
Edinburgh Central - Lean LAB (LAB GAIN)Students. Students. English Students. This is Labour held, but notionally Lib Dem. That will soon become a curious political footnote.
Edinburgh Eastern - Toss-up - Momentum SNPIt's Kenny's seat. He's in serious trouble however as he's lost Musselburgh. He has gained favourable areas arcing through the estates to the south however this is where wild unexpected LAB-SNP swings took place in 2007. I fear they may correct themselves. I'm giving it to Kenny at the moment based on anectodal evidence (which I know I shouldn't) from people I know who live there; he's a popular MSP.
Edinburgh Southern - Lean LIBI have no idea about this seat. I genuinely don't. It's a very neat and compact seat taking in pre post war expansion Edinburgh and as such it shifts more strongly in the direction of the Lib Dems. It has also lost much of the Edinburgh University student sprawl to Central which under the current climate is a very good thing. However can they hold it on current voting trends? This seat is the most 'middle class' in Edinburgh, even more so than the new Pentlands. Despite it being a battle between the Lib Dems and Labout, potentially all four parties have a shot here.
In Part 2 (of 2
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Edinburgh Western
Falkirk West
Glasgow Cathcart
Glasgow Kelvin
Glasgow Southside
Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley
Linlithgow
Mid Fife and Glenrothes
Midlothian North and Musselburgh
Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale
North East Fife
Perthshire South and Kinross-shire
Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch
Stirling
Strathkelvin and Bearsden