Can Marco Rubio win back Northern Virginia?

[jamestroll]

Democrats do not really have any room to grow in Nova anymore. Those counties probably swing GOP in 2024 but only marginally.

Without Trump on ballot I expected some reversion to the mean in rural and suburban voting habits but recent trends will still prevail.

[jamestroll]

He's the kind of candidate who can bring the margins down, and make VA look competitive, but if he (or any republican) wins NoVA that would probably shape up to be an unrealistically bad election for democrats.

also look at the most ominous signs for the GOP in Virginia.. look at the results in Chesterfield and Prince William counties.

PwC has many of the different demographics that swung to Trump nationally and has a significant yokel population but it still swung and trended Biden.

[jamestroll]

No but he'll do better than Trump.

How much better realistically?

[jamestroll]

Anyway barring a mass influx of new residents or a mass exodus from Nova, the voting patterns in Loudoun and Prince William have stabilized and will largely be consistently 60 to 40 Democratic.

Fairfax is the area in which I could see a drop of Democratic support but it will be still around 60 to 40  Democratic at worse.

[jamestroll]

I have seen all this talk about Gade outperforming Trump in Northern Virginia. With the way the discussions have been you would think it is a massive 10 point + difference.

And Warner and Biden were only off by 0.1% in vote share in Fairfax County and Warner actually outperformed Biden by vote share in Prince William County.