Can Marco Rubio win back Northern Virginia?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 25, 2024, 09:51:49 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2024 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: Likely Voter, GeorgiaModerate, KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸)
  Can Marco Rubio win back Northern Virginia?		 « previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Poll
Question: Title
#1
Yes		  
#2
No		  
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results
Total Voters: 118

Author Topic: Can Marco Rubio win back Northern Virginia?  (Read 2674 times)
S019
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,332
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -1.39

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: November 29, 2020, 11:20:04 PM »
Well, look what happened in Miami-Dade, and everyone knows that the people who inhabit the McMansions in Great Falls and McLean are very scared of socialism, so if Rubio says the words "socialism," he should win them back, imo tbh
Logged
Starry Eyed Jagaloon
Blairite
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,853
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: November 29, 2020, 11:25:00 PM »
Obviously. I think he should get 65% in Fairfax and at least 50% in Arlington and Alexandria. I'm afraid he might lose SWVA Coal Country to #Populist Joe, though, which should cost him the state.
Logged
TwinGeeks99
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 303
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: November 30, 2020, 12:08:35 AM »
No. NoVA just continues to keep growing bluer as it grows in size.
Logged
One Term Floridian
swamiG
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,042


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: 3.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: November 30, 2020, 12:28:56 AM »
Lil Marco Polio would get clobbered how is this even being taken seriously. He only matters in FL, which as we found out a month ago doesn’t matter nearly as much as they might like. Plus could he even win a FL primary against Donald Cleveland Trump?! Lmao Rubio is toast if he seriously thinks to run again for President
Logged
jamestroll
jamespol
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,519


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: November 30, 2020, 12:35:36 AM »
Democrats do not really have any room to grow in Nova anymore. Those counties probably swing GOP in 2024 but only marginally.

Without Trump on ballot I expected some reversion to the mean in rural and suburban voting habits but recent trends will still prevail.
Logged
tosk
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 756


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -2.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: November 30, 2020, 01:02:16 AM »
He's the kind of candidate who can bring the margins down, and make VA look competitive, but if he (or any republican) wins NoVA that would probably shape up to be an unrealistically bad election for democrats.
Logged
jamestroll
jamespol
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,519


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: November 30, 2020, 01:05:10 AM »
Quote from: tosk on November 30, 2020, 01:02:16 AM
He's the kind of candidate who can bring the margins down, and make VA look competitive, but if he (or any republican) wins NoVA that would probably shape up to be an unrealistically bad election for democrats.

also look at the most ominous signs for the GOP in Virginia.. look at the results in Chesterfield and Prince William counties.

PwC has many of the different demographics that swung to Trump nationally and has a significant yokel population but it still swung and trended Biden.
Logged
Chips
Those Chips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,245
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: November 30, 2020, 01:37:55 AM »
No. He would do a few points better I think but he wouldn't come close. Certainly not close enough to win the whole state.
Logged
AGA
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,289
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -5.39

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: November 30, 2020, 01:47:35 AM »
https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=416033.msg7798772#msg7798772
Logged
McGarnagle
SomethingPolitical
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,613


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: November 30, 2020, 01:57:05 AM »
Let's dispel with this fiction that Northern Virginia doesn't know what it's doing. Northern Virginia knows exactly what it's doing.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,684
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: November 30, 2020, 03:19:49 AM »
He isn't gonna be the nominee, the Rs blasted his immigration reform proposal in the 2016 primary
Logged
beaver2.0
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,777


Political Matrix
E: -2.45, S: -0.52

P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: November 30, 2020, 08:30:00 AM »
No but he'll do better than Trump.
Logged
Red Wall
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 736


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: November 30, 2020, 09:10:46 AM »
Comparing NoVa to Miami-Dade jeez...
Logged
jamestroll
jamespol
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,519


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: November 30, 2020, 11:45:38 AM »

How much better realistically?
Logged
Figueira
84285
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,175


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: November 30, 2020, 11:56:53 AM »
Yes. This is my prediction of what the 2024 map will look like if Rubio is the nominee. (Weird electoral vote numbers are a result of SCOTUS shenanigans regarding the Census.)
Logged
𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆
Battista Minola 1616
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,361
Vatican City State


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -1.57

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: November 30, 2020, 12:01:27 PM »
Quote from: Figueira on November 30, 2020, 11:56:53 AM
Yes. This is my prediction of what the 2024 map will look like if Rubio is the nominee. (Weird electoral vote numbers are a result of SCOTUS shenanigans regarding the Census.)

Party like it's 1988 lmao
Logged
jamestroll
jamespol
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,519


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: November 30, 2020, 12:58:02 PM »
Anyway barring a mass influx of new residents or a mass exodus from Nova, the voting patterns in Loudoun and Prince William have stabilized and will largely be consistently 60 to 40 Democratic.

Fairfax is the area in which I could see a drop of Democratic support but it will be still around 60 to 40  Democratic at worse.
Logged
Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver
freethinkingindy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,272
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: November 30, 2020, 02:59:25 PM »
Probably not, but Nikki Haley can. Fairfax County is a tossup in a Haley vs. Harris matchup, Prince William is Lean R, Loudoun is Likely R at worst for Republicans.


(/s)
Logged
Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,728
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: November 30, 2020, 07:43:18 PM »
People keep acting like the NOVA of 2020 is the same NOVA that had Fairfax County vote for Bush in 2000 and 20% of the voting population has just changed their minds about how they vote. I don't doubt some people have changed their minds, but it's as simple as pulling up a satellite map of the area from 2000 on Google Earth to see how much the region has physically changed to lock the Republicans out. It's not a question of winning over former Republicans. It's a question of completely changing the voting coalitions of the parties to a point where Republicans are winning dense urban areas which are thoroughly racially mixed. It's one thing to improve with Cubans or Tejanos. It's another to improve basically across the board in one of the areas trending the fastest away from Republicans.
Logged
SN2903
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,676
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: 3.91

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: December 01, 2020, 12:35:02 AM »
No. VA is gone for GOP just like FL, OH , IA are gone for dems. Next state to be gone for dems will be Wisconsin.
Logged
BaldEagle1991
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,660
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: December 01, 2020, 12:41:11 AM »
No, but he can make it close in margins.

Marco Rubio is probably the only Republican who can win Virginia nowadays.
Logged
GALeftist
sansymcsansface
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,741


Political Matrix
E: -7.29, S: -9.48

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: December 01, 2020, 01:47:15 AM »
No and he would lose Virginia bigly (sane)
Logged
𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆
Battista Minola 1616
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,361
Vatican City State


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -1.57

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: December 01, 2020, 08:18:36 AM »
Yes he can: you just need to stretch the definition of Northern Virginia far enough.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,684
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: December 01, 2020, 10:14:41 AM »
No, not with Biden and a viable third party we must remember that Trump only beat Benghazi Hillary due to spoiler Gary Johnson
Logged
DPKdebator
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,082
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.81, S: 3.65

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: December 01, 2020, 03:20:40 PM »
Rubio/Haley vs Biden/Harris
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.049 seconds with 13 queries.