France 2017: Results Thread

[TheSaint250]

it is not sure that fillon and melenchon voters will support macron in second round, it's not 2002.

Predicting that a lot of them will vote for Le Pen, but not sure if more Melenchon will vote for her or more Fillon. Either way, she'll get close, but the polls put her around 40%, which seems about right considering the success of the polls tonight.

[TheSaint250]

How long does it take to get full results? Been stuck on 8 departments for a while.

If you're on http://presidentielle.lepoint.fr, you need to refresh a few times.

[TheSaint250]

Anyway, Macron will most likely win this, but I wouldn't count Le Pen out entirely

[TheSaint250]

A little off-topic from the presidential election, but does anyone have a projection for the legislative elections? (just for this, assume Macron is President)

[TheSaint250]

And is this the first time since the next president will not be of one of the two major parties?

[TheSaint250]

The only department that currently has Mélenchon leading is Dordogne, Mayenne for Fillon

[TheSaint250]

Mélenchon is still not giving up. Politico.eu says that his campaign's polls say he is within one point of Le Pen.

[TheSaint250]

Updated National results:
Fillon 22.81%
Macron 22.62%
Le Pen 19.84%
Mélenchon 18.16%
Hamon 7.78%
Dupont-Aignan 2.61%
Poutou 2%
Asselineau 1.39%
Arthaud 1.36%
Lassalle 1.14%
Cheminade 0.29%

Which website is this?

[TheSaint250]

I don't care. I'm so proud to be in the 6% who made the right choice. The 94% can go screw themselves.

"I don't care.  I'm proud to be in the 1% who made the right choice.  The 99% can go screw themselves." - every Jill Stein voter

This is a very stupid comparision. France had two-rounds voting system.

Not really given that there was some real uncertainty about whether Macron (the only pro-EU candidate) was going to make it to the run-off.  What matters most in this election is that France chooses a pro-EU candidate and Macron was the only electable one.

Sorry, I'm not going to vote for a f**king neoliberal investment banker piece of sh*t just because he's ~pro-EU~

"Sorry, I'm not going to vote for a f**king neoliberal third way piece of sh*t just because she's ~not Trump ~ " - Stein voters everywhere

We're done with political debates now.

[TheSaint250]

So the big thing to discuss now: the very last poll (as per Wikipedia) had Macron at 24.5%, Le Pen at 23%, Fillon and Mélenchon at 19%, and Dupont-Aignan at 4.5%.  The estimate from France 2 has Macron at 23.7% and Le Pen at 21.7%, Fillon at 20%, Mélenchon at 19.5%, and Hâmon at 6.2%.  Obviously, this was just a poll, but this seems to indicate that Le Pen lost some supporters, or at least more than previously thought.  Some seem to have gone to Fillon.  So where do you guys think these shifts across the board happened?

[TheSaint250]

I had seen an interesting theory on the other election thread:

This election could create a sort-of three-party system in France where the National Front leads the right, En Marche! leads the center, and Mélenchon's coalition leads the left.

Except for the National Front, this seems pretty likely to me.

[TheSaint250]

It looks like Wikipedia has called it for Macron and Le Pen

haha

[TheSaint250]

wouldn't call the traditional right dead in france, fillon did pretty well if you remember that he had collected SOOO much baggage and got some internal strife and macron defections.

Yeah, that's what I was thinking too (why I said not too sure about FN).

I think EM and JLM and their parties taking power in the place of PS are really possible

[TheSaint250]

Latest Ifop projections

Macron 23.7%
Le Pen 21.7%
Fillon 20.0%
Mélenchon 19.5%
Hamon 6.4%

Is Fillon going up?  If so, could he still end up in the second round?

[TheSaint250]

Corsica is leaning Fillon

[TheSaint250]

Macron taking the stage.

Wonder who he'll endorse

[TheSaint250]

From http://presidentielle.lepoint.fr

[TheSaint250]

Current Nationwide results:

How much of the vote has been reported?

[TheSaint250]

Current Nationwide results:

https://twitter.com/GeraldineAmiel/status/856253256321904640

From 37.59m voters (78.14%): Macron 23.41%, Le Pen 22.6%, Fillon 19.86%, Melenchon 18.85% - French Interior Min at 11:01pm #France2017

Thanks

[TheSaint250]

Did Le Pen even spend that much time in Brittany?

[TheSaint250]

Wait, according to

http://presidentielle.lepoint.fr/

97% of the votes are counted and

Le Pen is still ahead of Marcon 23.69% to 22.66%

Am I missing something here ?

No. 97% of towns are in, not 97% of votes.

Is the right vote percentage about 79%?

[TheSaint250]

Le Pen is running in 5th in Paris, lol

Are there any French people still living?

No, it's 78% morrocan, 28% Turks and 16% chinese

The sad truth is, that you're not far away from reality...

Wikipedia is your friend; the area is overwhelmingly "born in Metropolitan France": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/5th_arrondissement_of_Paris#Immigration

Very little research needs to be done to discover that the area is very wealthy and overwhelmingly white.

Born in France does not mean that they are French ;-) But ok, I know that for you guys a sheep born in a chicken coop is a chicken, not a sheep...

Your racism is showing.

Shouting racism doesn't make you win the argument, sweetie.

I mean in fairness, equating "Born in Metropolitan France" and "not being Muslim" at the very least points to some sort of implicit bias.

ANYWAY--

Quick question re: results...would one be able to say that Le Pen underperformed tonight?

Looking at the polls, no.  Personally, since I thought she would surprise and come out on top, yes.

[TheSaint250]

Me thinks it's time to lock, Hash. Please.

How about instead we all stop and just discuss the election

[TheSaint250]

Important question: Do you guys think the primary system to select the candidates will be scrapped in the next election?

The 2 candidates chosen by primaries, LR and PS, were soundly defeated.

That's a pretty good thought.  It could, but no real way of knowing.

[TheSaint250]

So what's the West Virginia/Alabama of France?

I vote for Nord-Pas-de-Calais.

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Paris. Paris. And Paris.

What's the New Jersey? You know where all the rude people live.

Wouldn't that be all of France? jk