UK General Discussion: 2017 and onwards, Mayhem

[Statilius the Epicurean]

General election soon, friends!

May had about 15 chances to sack him; will easily go down in History as the worst foreign secretary in British History (which is an achievement in a sense)

Impossible to be worse than Edward Grey, but possibly the worst since him which is quite an achievement given some of the other holders of the post...

Samuel Hoare was the brains behind a secret pact with Fascist Italy to carve up Abyssinia, but I'd agree that Boris is the worst foreign sec since the war.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Worth noting it's extremely difficult to get an early election unless the Prime Minister wants it. The Tories could switch leaders, change Brexit plans, or even slowly head towards no-deal all without anyone pulling the pin on the Election.

You not only need a vote of no-confidence in the Government, but you then have to wait 14 days for no new government to emerge. Basically either the Pro-Remain Tories (about 5-10 MP) or the Hard Brexiters (40 odd MPs) have to decide that Prime Minister Corbyn is worth the risk

If either group votes down a Brexit deal in the Commons, something which seems inevitable at the moment, then a general election has to happen.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Heck they could even vote down a Brexit deal in the Commons, and then support the Government in a confidence vote.

No government could survive a no deal Brexit, especially considering there is no majority in the Commons for one.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Well, May seems to have weathered the current storm. With Gove and Fox not having resigned it seems like the Brexiteers are in a half-in-half out situation, awaiting further developments. Obviously what a lot of people in Westminster don't realise is that this is just the prelude to negotiations actually beginning: the real stress test of May's premiership will be how her ministers and MPs react to the further concessions to a soft Brexit that are coming down the line now that the direction of travel is clear.

I suspect(/hope) May is trying the 'salami tactics' approach of piecemeal moves towards the Norway option, inch by inch, until all of a sudden we're in March and she can jam it through the Brexiteers and opposition in Parliament with the threat of "if you don't support this we'll get no deal and Armageddon"

[Statilius the Epicurean]

What's really missing today to make the parallel convincing is the most fundamental centrifugal force in democratic politics, the "time for a change" emotion. It was dominant in say 2009 but not so much now?

"Time for a change" has powered successful insurgent movements in both main parties since 2015.

And the fundamental state of the economy is much (much) worse than most people think: real wage growth (the worst since the 1870s!) and productivity have flatlined since the 2008 crash and we have the lowest GDP growth in the OECD. People are obsessing over Brexit but the UK economy has been treading on water for structural reasons for a long time now.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

I would imagine that's a comforting narrative to a Tory broadcaster, but May's job is 'impossible' because of her own decisions and botching an easy snap election, while I don't think it's fair to call Corbyn's job easy when he's under constant attack from parts of his parliamentary party, the majority of which opposed his election to the leadership.

Corbyn appears to be doing badly because he has poor media management.
May is doing badly because the actual policies she is implementing are either fundamentally unworkable or disastrous.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Everyone with a brain saw this happening a year ago when we signed up to the backstop. If May wasn't an incompetent fantasist she would have spent 2018 preparing her own party for a border in the Irish sea, but after months of telling everyone who would listen that would be a threat to our constitutional integrity she has zero room to maneuver. So the only thing May can do is plow blindly on with Chequers and hope something comes up.

Fortunately we'll have a general election soon and a Labour-led government to solve it.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

The idea that May is going to call a general election after what happened last time is pretty fanciful.

It's not about what May wants. If no Brexit deal can get through parliament then there's no alternative.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

It's absolutely about what May wants because she's the Prime Minister and she commands a majority in the House of Commons. Of course, divisions over Brexit might put an end to that majority, but it's pretty unlikely to galvanise 2/3rds of the House against her.

Except a motion of no confidence only needs a majority.

There is no majority in Parliament for a deal. There is no majority in Parliament for no deal either. Therefore, the dissolution of Parliament is inevitable.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

What reason would any Tory MP have to vote down their own government?

Err, 12 Tory MPs already voted against the government on the Customs Union when they were told a defeat would mean a snap election, and the government only scraped through thanks to Labour rebels. And that was after they bought off most of the rebels by asking for time to get Chequers through.

In a straight choice between a snap election and the economic carnage of no deal there will be dozens of Tory MPs rebelling, even assuming the government would go for it (which they wouldn't for the above reason).

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Cameron tried to get the emergency brake in the pre-referendum negotiations and Brussels rejected it. The clause exists to stop microcountries like Liechtenstein from doubling in population every year, not as a clever end run around freedom of movement. If the UK got an emergency brake then Denmark, Norway, the Netherlands, Switzerland etc. would all demand one too and FoM would collapse.

As for immigration in general, the government has repeatedly stated that it wants similar levels of immigration from the EU to continue post-Brexit for the health of the economy. Just another aspect of the great Brexit stitch-up.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

This Roger Scruton business. Can someone explain to me why on earth Roger Scruton is the government's bloody housing advisor in the first place? Even just appointing him kind of shows the complete contempt which Tories have for housing policy.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

I think we're either looking at a 2nd referendum or a new General Election.

Even if a2nd Referendum were to vote to Remain after all, it's too late.  Do you really think all 27 EU countries will agree to allow a simple return to the status quo?  Britain will have to give up at least some of its carve outs to be able to get an agreement and that makes it even less likely that Britain  would agree to remain.

Nah. The EU would bend over backwards to let the UK overturn Brexit as it would forever end the prospect of the union breaking up. If leaving via Article 50 is so impossible that the UK can't do it, other countries like Italy, Greece or Hungary will never attempt it and the European project is massively solidified. That's such a big win for Brussels that it's not something they would jeopardise over a rebate.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Thstchers Dad was a proper Tory- she hardly came from a pit village

Yeah, he was an middle class small business-owning old school Gladstonian Liberal, the sort who believed that the Undeserving Poor were so because of their immoral vices and just needed to pull themselves up by their own bootstraps...

[Statilius the Epicurean]

This is absolutely perfect for Labour: May survives as PM with her authority permanently wounded but guaranteed to lead the Tories into a snap election.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Why exactly would the Tories willingly surrender power to Labour, because thats what a true confidence vote would do.

Because the parliamentary arithmetic currently means that there is no Brexit deal which can command the majority of parliament, so it's either a general election to change that arithmetic or wave no deal through.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Why exactly would the Tories willingly surrender power to Labour, because thats what a true confidence vote would do.

Because the parliamentary arithmetic currently means that there is no Brexit deal which can command the majority of parliament, so it's either a general election to change that arithmetic or wave no deal through.

Or a second referendum; if Labour can't get a VONC, they'd probably back that.

A second referendum would require primary legislation. i.e. Tory Remainers deciding to support a Labour minority government with Corbyn as Prime Minister for several months. That's far less likely than Conservatives voting for a general election.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Not if it's May's Deal vs. Remain. If she can't get it through the Commons, she would likely seek to get a popular mandate that didn't threaten her government.

I don't see why May would go for that referendum because 1) it would enrage Brexiteers and split the party, and 2) her deal would likely lose to Remain in a binary choice.

I think it's more likely May would call a snap general election to ratify her deal than a referendum on it, because that way she could take advantage of Labour's divisions and play up the threat of no deal if she loses.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

This is absolutely perfect for Labour: May survives as PM with her authority permanently wounded but guaranteed to lead the Tories into a snap election.

Yep, perfect result.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Wow, the scale of that defeat is absolutely astonishing. I was expecting it to be seriously bad and underestimated the margin by 100...

The plan may be to try again with even less time left and try to get it through via fear alone.

Parliament has shown that it will intervene to prevent that running down the clock.

I honestly don't know what May will do. The only way the government can pass a deal is if she goes for Norway with the support of Labour, but then the Tory Party will split in half.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

1) What are the realistic odds an early general election gets called in the next half-year?

In the next 6 months? I would say very high due to the fact that 1) Remainer Tories have said they will resign the whip and collapse the government if it goes for No Deal, 2) the DUP have said they will end the C&S arrangement and bring down the government if it goes for a Brexit which involves the backstop or a different status for Northern Ireland, and 3) Tory Brexiteers will split the party if the government goes for a soft Brexit. So the only two routes for the government, either no dealing or softening the deal, both lose its majority in the Commons.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

This is a tangent but do any of the British or Irish posters think that Sinn Féin's abstentionist policies are hurting them right now?

No.

I don't think it's a good look that literally the only representatives of Northern Ireland present in Wetsminster are the DUP with one single exception, given how they don't represent the views of most Northern Irish people.

Let me tell you about Irish republicanism and why swearing an oath of loyalty to the British monarch is a problem for them.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Here come dat general election.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Here come dat general election.