2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Missouri

[BoiseBoy]

Cleaver keeps hearing that an attempt will be made to gerrymander him out of MO-05. Sen. Cierpiot, a Republican on the redistricting committee, believes changes will mostly be centered around MO-01 and MO-08 (which are both underpopulated and need to take in about 48k and 44k people respectively). He predicts "gentle" changes to the district lines to accommodate population changes and mot much beyond that.

https://twitter.com/drdesrochers/status/1431336714732179466?s=20

I would imagine MO-01 and MO-05 stay safely Democrat, while MO-02 becomes more Republican for the time being, as MO-01 will take in a lot of its bluer precincts.

[BoiseBoy]

Pretty excellent map.

[BoiseBoy]

PDF of the individual districts:

https://npr.brightspotcdn.com/22/8e/8d51ffe5410bb3557a352714a51f/joint-proposed-districts.pdf

[BoiseBoy]

https://twitter.com/BasedLoudermilk/status/1476689473295503364?s=20

[BoiseBoy]

Also, there aren't shapefiles available as of right now, but the bill text as found HERE lists the precincts and blocks for each district if anyone wants to go ahead and recreate the map.

[BoiseBoy]

Alright - we have a DRA link now:

https://twitter.com/Missouri_Mapper/status/1476810221750214687

Is this map pretty much a done deal or is it likely to be altered a bunch before passing?

[BoiseBoy]

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1478237130556166147?s=21

[BoiseBoy]

https://twitter.com/scottfaughn/status/1480273508202655745?s=21

[BoiseBoy]

https://twitter.com/K_Schallhorn/status/1480616070088212480
https://twitter.com/missouriscout/status/1480616421457543174
Has any other Republican state seen this much conservative pushback against a proposed map?

Outside of Florida, I don't think so. These people are just dumb and crazy.

[BoiseBoy]

We have our first change to the GOP draft plan:

In response to complaints from residents of Ray County (which was split between MO4 and MO6), Ray, Carroll, and Chariton are now entirely in MO-6, and MO-4 has taken a portion of Jackson County (which is now split in 3).

What portion of Jackson? Are there images or a bill anywhere?

[BoiseBoy]

Are there shapefiles/Dra links anywhere for the updated map?

[BoiseBoy]

https://twitter.com/BillEigel/status/1481764243968036872

This guy is a damn moron and this map is never happening.

[BoiseBoy]

Amended map has passed the House 84-60.

[BoiseBoy]

The bill passed without amendments. MO-2 is R+5, down from R+15 in 2016.
https://twitter.com/MarinaSilvaKY3/status/1483539654532116480?s=20

[BoiseBoy]

Here is a breakdown of the vote:
https://twitter.com/K_Schallhorn/status/1483542007679172610?s=20

[BoiseBoy]

House approved the map 86-67, but voted against the emergency clause 95-55 (needed 100). Unless votes switch on a subsequent version of the bill, courts will probably have to get involved.

Involved as in map drawing?

[BoiseBoy]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1485756192924307459?s=20
The House map might have passed successfully, but the senate map did not.

What would a court-drawn Senate map look like? Is this a possibility for the congressional map?

[BoiseBoy]

Missouri Senate Redistricting Committee advanced the map (SB663) 9-5. SB663 is identical to the map passed by the house. It has an emergency clause that passed, allowing it to go into effect quicker. It will now go to the full senate for debate and a vote on Wednesday.

[BoiseBoy]

https://twitter.com/K_Schallhorn/status/1486512411217649668
It appears the that Senate Leadership is going to try to extend an olive branch to the Conservative Caucus (some of whom were providing an exit ramp to this by saying "we need at least a more solid 6-2")

Amazing that a small number of people can effectively bully and stall a good map from passing. Assholes.

[BoiseBoy]

We were expecting a new draft map tonight, but gubernatorial appointments took too long - next Monday is now the target.

Why does it take a week to get a draft map? They could release it tomorrow.

[BoiseBoy]

Sen. Mike Bernskoetter has confirmed that the Senate draft will differ from the House plan, and that the third district will be changed in a way that alters the second, but has provided no further elaboration.

Based on the language used, and how he has characterized the Conservative Caucus's demands, I think this will just be an intact St. Charles inside of MO-2 fix. Even though it would be really smart for the GOP to add an additional county (because it means MO-3 can take Kirkwood), its unclear if that will happen.

So still not a 7-1 plan?

[BoiseBoy]

It seems that HB 2117 is going to be brought to the floor without changes. The expectation is there will be amendments proposed, but its at least possible now that the map passed by the House could make it through the Senate.

When is the vote?

[BoiseBoy]

https://twitter.com/BobOnderMO/status/1490898473452855300

Good riddance. How many times are these asshole jerks going to keep putting this crap 7-1 idea up?

[BoiseBoy]

Currently not a ton of interest in the Rowden compromise map - some Conservative Caucus members are predicting the filibuster will last at least a week, so I suspect there might be some sort of backroom dealing going on right now to try to come up with a different compromise map.

Spoke too soon - amendment was just in a standing vote: 22-5. Onder, Hoskins, Weiland, Brattin, and Eigel vote no.

https://twitter.com/K_Schallhorn/status/1491183598330081280

So that amendment is done because it was an amendment to Roberts' amendment which he later withdrew?

[BoiseBoy]

And so we see that the Dem's are fine voting for these 6-2/5-2-1 maps, they just won't say so publicly and will let the GOP waste ink and time.

So why not just support the original 5-2-1 map?

Yeah. This map is more of a 6-2 and less of a 5-2-1 than the previous.

Well unless it gets proposed again the Browden map is tabled.