2013 Elections in Germany

[Middle-aged Europe]

It's either CDU+FDP, CDU+SPD, or SPD+Greens.... with CDU+SPD being the most likely outcome at this point.

Forget about CDU+Greens, SPD+Greens+FDP, SPD+Greens+Left or any other wishful thinking-type coalition.

[Middle-aged Europe]

^^

While being less likely than CDU/SPD and probably also SPD/Greens, I happen to think that the chances of a CDU/FDP revival (/survival) are generally underestimated. If you take the latest Emnid/Infratest polls and add a percent to the FDP's numbers, black-yellow isn't that far from winning another majority again.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Widespread discussion within the FDP, that the results of the Lower Saxony election are going to trigger the resignation of federal chairman Philipp Rösler.

Who's next in line? Rainer Brüderle, I suppose. Probably also an improvement over Rösler and Westerwelle, since Brüderle somewhat maintains an aura of authenticity and a certain folksy charm. His speeches are also almost incomprehensible, which can't really hurt when you're a FDP politician these days (Brüderle has a tendency to mumble a lot, combined with a Rhenish accent).

[Middle-aged Europe]

If the FDP want to increase their support, they need to re-define what they stand for. It seems like right now they're trying to be vague as possible and let voters project what they want. That might work with the Pirates or Beppe Grillo, who are seeking a young, angry, protest voters but not with a bunch of pro-business technocrats.

Part of the problem is that FDP has become increasingly redundant.

They were big on civil liberties once, but the issue has been largely taken over by the Greens (and the Pirates... and the Left to some extent). And business interests can be represented by the CDU just as easily, only without the blatant whoring.

What's left is the premise that taxes are inherently evil.

IMO they started to lose it when they voted against legalizing civil unions for gays and lesbians in 2001. Or maybe when they approved of wire-tapping back in 1995. That's when they became just a more secular version of the CDU.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Where are Freie Wahler on the left-right spectrum?

Rightish. Basically the party for former CSU voters who have become disgruntled with the CSU... which is for all intents and purposes also their main political and election strategy.

At the same time, they also like to emphasize their independence within the party system, especially in regards to CDU/CSU and FDP. Back in 2010 they supported SPD/Green candidate Joachim Gauck for president and not CDU candidate Christian Wulff. Which wasn't that surprising, considering that Gauck is just their kind of "independent conservative". So they're also a bit of a anti-mainstream protest party.

[Middle-aged Europe]

So, Steinbruck is basically a joke candidate?

The irony is that Steinbrück wasn't a joke candidate before he actually became a candidate.

Prior to his nomination he was widely considered to be f***king awesome, in a "omg, Merkel is really screwed now!" kind of way.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Well, at least it seems like it's either CDU/FDP or SPD/Greens. No grand coalition, Black-Green, or Red-Red-Green bullsh**t.

[Middle-aged Europe]

What about a tie.  Would not that not mean a grand coalition?

Well, at least it seems like it's either CDU/FDP or SPD/Greens. No grand coalition, Black-Green, or Red-Red-Green bullsh**t.

Mhm, okay, it's seems you're right.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1XyMePUidzs

[Middle-aged Europe]

It looks more and more like SPD/Greens, rather than CDU/SPD.

In any case, CDU/FDP has become more or less impossible, it seems?

[Middle-aged Europe]

What's the story behind the CDU leader in Lower Soxony having such a Scottish sounding name?

He has a British father.

And double citizenship.

What? Scottish father!

[Middle-aged Europe]

http://www.ndr.de/regional/niedersachsen/landtagswahl_niedersachsen_2013/eventlivestream865.html

Any moment now... NDR cameras already aimed at where the Landeswahlleiter is supposed to announce the result....

Come on, hurry up... I want to go to bed.

[Middle-aged Europe]

http://www.ndr.de/regional/niedersachsen/landtagswahl_niedersachsen_2013/eventlivestream865.html

Any moment now... NDR cameras already aimed at where the Landeswahlleiter is supposed to announce the result....

Come on, hurry up... I want to go to bed.

Ich muss morgen um 6 raus...

There she is!

[Middle-aged Europe]

Official result

CDU 54
SPD 49
Greens 20
FDP 14

[Middle-aged Europe]

The corest core group of the FDP board is currently deliberating behind closed doors while the remainder of the board are waiting to be let in for the session that was supposed to have begun three-quarters of an hour ago.
The rumour is that Rösler has offered to resign... but possibly not in good faith. There's definitely something fishy going on.

Maybe Rösler knows that his times as party chairman are over, but he tries to take Brüderle down with him (revenge!) and install one of his allies as his successor instead?

We'll know more sometime later today.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Rösler to remain party chair, Brüderle to be "top candidate" for federal election.

Boring. I want to see some blood spilled.

[Middle-aged Europe]

New Forsa poll (23.01.2013), Federal election:

CDU/CSU: 42%
SPD: 23%
Grüne: 14%
Linke: 8%

FDP: 4%
Piraten: 4%

CDU slightly short of absolute majority (42-45).
Red-Green far away from majority (37-50).

Looking at Lower Saxony example we can be quite sure about FDP overcoming the threshold with some loan from CDU voters.

Except that CDU supporters know now that a tactical vote for the FDP may actually hurt their own party rather than doing any good...

[Middle-aged Europe]

I mean old State Oldenburg living under Hanoverian Imperialismus.

At least British "rule" over Hanover was ended with this election once again.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Hmm, I didn't know the Greens won a FPTP seat. Is there any chance they'll take more than 1 this time? Maybe another in Berlin or Baden-Wurrtemburg?

Berlin Kreuzberg-Prenzlauer Berg has traditionally been the by far strongest Grüne district (27.4% of PV votes in 2009). The next stongest districts in 2009 were:

Freiburg 22.8%
Berlin-Charlottenburg 22.1%
Berlin-Mitte 22.0%
Stuttgart I  22.0%
Berlin-Tempelhof 21.6%
Berlin-Pankow 19.8%
Köln II 19.8%
München-Mitte 19.4%

Except for Köln II, in all of the aforementionned the Grüne vote was higher than the SPD vote. If the SPD encouraged ticket-splitting of their voters, Freiburg and some more Berlin districts might be possible. Berlin-Mitte, where Grüne were the strongest party in 2009, and Berlin-Pankow, where Linke and CDU split up the remaining vote (currently held by Linke) look most promising. Berlin-Tempelhof might be in reach with substantial SPD ticket-splitting.

Berlin-Charlottenburg, Stuttgart I and München-Mitte, however will need a favourable federal trend for the combined green-red vote to overcome black-yellow.

Could also depend on the candidates. For instance, Green federal chairman Cem Özdemir runs in Stuttgart I... while Öczan Mutlu, a member of the Berlin state parliament aiming to succeed the retiring Green Bundestag MP for the district, is the party's candidate in Berlin-Mitte.

Given the fact that the Greens just won the mayorship in Stuttgart and Özdemir is a national public figure, he has pretty good chances at winning the district IMO.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Could this be a problem for CDU in FPTP seats?
http://www.spiegel.de/international/bild-878468-449405.html

Could perhaps be a problem for the Left, actually.

After all, both the NPD and the Left compete for the anti-establishment/anti-mainstream protest vote in the eastern states.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Markus Söder, the Bavarian Finance Minister from the CSU, does a Rudy Giuliani:

He looks a bit like the Joker from the 1960s Batman series, to be frank.

[Middle-aged Europe]

It's slightly ironic that a few days ago, it was rumored that Merkel might pick Loser McAllister as a replacement should Schavan be untenable... and then she goes for a loser member of his cabinet instead.

Maybe she has in fact asked McAllister and he turned her down?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Thuringia... my strongest personal memory of Thuringia is that I had to spend about a week in Sondershausen back in 2001 when I was doing my civilian service. During the day we attended seminars about democracy and right-wing extremism and such things and in the evening we were watching Lethal Weapon movies in the recreation room. You can believe me, this was also about the only thing you could in Sondershausen... it was almost literally at the ass end of nowhere.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Cem Özdemir as chancellor would be awesome.

He wouldn't become Chancellor though, since he isn't the party's lead nominee for the Bundestag election.

Jürgen Trittin would become Chancellor, in all likelihood (either him or Katrin Göring-Eckardt, but Trittin is more likely).

[Middle-aged Europe]

Have visited my old hometown of Halle over the Easter weekend. Apparently, the first black politician** with good chances of entering the German Bundestag is running there in the September election... Senegal-born Karamba Diaby from the SPD. And in an East German district of all places.

Have we finally found our own Obama?


(** strictly speaking, Josef Winkler from the Greens surely "looks" black too.. but he's half-Indian and not African)

[Middle-aged Europe]

What were the direct vote and party list results in 2009 for that district ?

http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bundestagswahlkreis_Halle

Was won by the Left in 2009.

From 1994 to 2009 it was held by the SPD, but Christel Riemann-Hanewinckel retired then and in 2009 the new SPD candidate only managed to come in third behind Left and CDU. And in 1990, the FDP candidate had won the district (the last time something like that happened in Germany). So pretty much all over the place, but more or less a "Left/SPD swing district", I suppose.