2013 Elections in Germany

[DC Al Fine]

Explanations for the FDP bursting from the grave?

[ERvND]

You have to help me here.  Why would we view the results as McAllister's idea has backfired?  It seems to me if some CDU voters voted for FDP, that did not diminish the CDU/FDP total vote.  It seems the defeat was really a function of CDU+FDP votes numbered less than SPD+Green voters by a slim margin.  It seems if McAllister did not do what he did and FDP falls below 5%, that would just mean a larger SPD+Green majority as all FDP votes would have been wasted.  He merely came up with the only strategy that gave him a chance for him to keep his position.  The fact it did not work merely means that the votes were not there for him ever to win in this election, not that the idea is a bad one.

As outsiders, we tend to perceive "black-yellow" as one homogenous voting bloc. The 14 CDU MPs who lost their jobs yesterday would beg to differ. The same is true for Merkel and the national CDU, who get a lot of negative media attention right now, thanks to McAllister's poor results. The best sign that his strategy was a failure is the fact that hordes of CDU/CSU politicians are condemning it right now.

Moreover, and this is my main point, McAllister's strategy of secretly endorsing the FDP was not even necessary. FDP core support is at 3%, i.e. they'll get that, no matter what. Now, given the polls right before the election, it was always clear there would be enough CDU voters to put them over the threshold. McAllisters stealthy FDP campaign amplified this effect to exaggerated levels. Most people on this board - even the ones not familiar with Lower Saxony politics - were able to predict this. McAllister, an experienced career politician, was not. Instead, he shot himself in the foot. He might have lost anyway, but at least he could have blamed it on the FDP.  

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Yup. That's why we're flooded with Dutch students.

Compared with the UK and Ireland, yeah it is cheap.

[Franknburger]

Explanations for the FDP bursting from the grave?

For those too lazy to read through everything that was written here yesterday ..

lmao, they actually polled FDP supporters in the exit poll. These percentages agreed with the following propositions...

91% I could have just as well voted CDU
87% I cared mostly about reelecting McAllister
68% My vote is a classic "borrowed vote"
45% I decided to vote FDP some time ago
33% the FDP is the party I feel closest to
20% I am wholly convinced of the party I voted for

They actually said they've never seen numbers quite as crass.

[jaichind]

Understood, thanks a lot for making this clear for me.  Of course from a CDU point of view, to lower its vote to help the FDP only to lose the election anyway is a significant setback from both ends.  But I always figured that the SPD/Greens getting a constructive majority in Bundesrat would be such a setback to the government that it should pull out every trick in the bag to stop it.

As outsiders, we tend to perceive "black-yellow" as one homogenous voting bloc. The 14 CDU MPs who lost their jobs yesterday would beg to differ. The same is true for Merkel and the national CDU, who get a lot of negative media attention right now, thanks to McAllister's poor results. The best sign that his strategy was a failure is the fact that hordes of CDU/CSU politicians are condemning it right now.

Moreover, and this is my main point, McAllister's strategy of secretly endorsing the FDP was not even necessary. FDP core support is at 3%, i.e. they'll get that, no matter what. Now, given the polls right before the election, it was always clear there would be enough CDU voters to put them over the threshold. McAllisters stealthy FDP campaign amplified this effect to exaggerated levels. Most people on this board - even the ones not familiar with Lower Saxony politics - were able to predict this. McAllister, an experienced career politician, was not. Instead, he shot himself in the foot. He might have lost anyway, but at least he could have blamed it on the FDP.  

[minionofmidas]

I always figured that the SPD/Greens getting a constructive majority in Bundesrat would be such a setback to the government that it should pull out every trick in the bag to stop it.

There's very not that much that can be done with it. Some procedural stuff. Also, SPD/Greens don't have that with Lower Saxony, SPD/Greens/Left do. (SPD/Greens/Left/SSW, actually.)
The only really relevant question is whether CDU/CSU/FDP have a majority of their own there, and that ship sailed a long time ago. (Another thing that is not entirely irrelevant is that there is still a CDU/CSU/FDP/SPD majority... though it's now trimmed down to a single state. And a CDU/CSU/FDP/SPD two-thirds majority, necessary for constitutional changes, is now also further away than ever.)

[Zanas]

Yup. That's why we're flooded with Dutch students.

My sincere condolences...

[RogueBeaver]

Will McAllister stay on for a rematch or not? Considering he was a sure goner until quite recently... I'd say he should at least be allowed to consider the idea.

[jaichind]

With this election, SPD will be in every Lander government except for Bavaria, Hesse, and Saxony.  Unless CSU falls apart I do not see SPD being in government there after elections this year.  Hesse which will have elections late 2013 or early 2014 should be on route to a SPD/Green majority but really should be a function of what takes place in federal elections in Sept 2013.  As for Saxony, which is later in 2014, it comes down to if FDP can cross 5%.  If it cannot then SPD will be in government as well as a part of CDU/SPD grand coalition.  So I can see a situation a year and half  from now where SPD will be in every Lander government execpt Bavaria.  Quite an accomplishment. 

[Franzl]

BTW, it seems very likely that Hessen will vote on the same day as the federal election at this point.

[Tender Branson]

Hopefully Austria won't vote on the same day as Germany ...

Bad for my reporting ...

[Zanas]

So I can see a situation a year and half  from now where SPD will be in every Lander government execpt Bavaria.  Quite an accomplishment. 

Quite an accomplishment indeed of having absolutely no political values, beliefs, agenda or anything... It's deeply pathetic if you ask me.

[Franknburger]

O.k., as nobody else has volunteered, I have prepared an evaluation of our Lower Saxony predictions. On the methodology - whenever a prediction included a range (e.g. 27-30%), I took the arithmetic mean, and whenever figures did not sum up to 100%, I balanced it by adjusting the share of "others".

First, let's compare our common wisdom with actual results (Prediction mean - actual -  error):

CDU      40.2     36.0    +4.2
SPD       29.4     32.6    -3.2
Grüne   14.5      13.7    +0.8
FDP        6.2      9.9      -3.2
Linke      4.4      3.1      +1.3
Piraten   2.7      2.1      +0.6
others    2.6      2.6      at least  this one we got collectively right ...

Now the ranking (total absolute error, ascending)

1. Franknburger (8.0)
2. palandio (12.0)
3. mubar (12.2)
4. Senator Franzl (14.2)
5. Tender Branson (14.6)
6. ERvND (15.2)
7. a Person (15.5)
8. Julio Madrid (16.6)
9. Esecutore de Midas (19.2)

[Franzl]

Herzlichen Glückwunsch, Franknburger...

[Franknburger]

Herzlichen Glückwunsch, Franknburger...

Thanks. However, it was mostly luck. As I underestimated the strength of the black-yellow block,, while ing off like everybody else on the FDP share, I happened to almost nail the CDU percentage.  A prediction to be really proud of looks different ....

[Antonio the Sixth]

So razor-thin upset victories happen for the left as well once in a while!

[ERvND]

O.k., as nobody else has volunteered, I have prepared an evaluation of our Lower Saxony predictions.

Nice. A weak performance for me, but in this case, I'm not really upset about it.

Quite an accomplishment indeed of having absolutely no political values, beliefs, agenda or anything... It's deeply pathetic if you ask me.

LOL. You're talking about Merkel now, right?

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

So razor-thin upset victories happen for the left as well once in a while!

1973

[Zanas]

So razor-thin upset defeats happen for the right as well once in a while!

Fixed there for ya.

[minionofmidas]

But at least I just about nailed the Green share!

Also, taking all our predictions and the actual result, the actual result is the biggest outlier. Which, alas, tends to happen with predictions unless based on fairly strong evidence.

[Franknburger]

Consequences of the Lower Saxony elections so far:

• CDU: McAllister steps down as head of the Lower Saxony CDU, asks for two weeks of time until announcing his future plans. Rumours are that, even though he lost the election, he remains '"Mommy's darling", and Merkel is looking for a high-level post in Berlin for him. CDU leadership says Lower Saxony results are local and not signalling federal trends. 
• CSU: Seehofer announces that the CSU will not encourage FDP 'loan votes' in the Bavarian election upcoming this autumn.
• SPD: Party leader Gabriel sees the Lower Saxony success as blue-print for the upcoming federal elections. Steeinbrück attends the press-conference together with eight other senior party leaders, but does not speak. [My local newspaper comments that Steinbrück is now being "framed" by the party leadership].
• Grüne: Bavarian Grüne leader Janecek has come out with a policy paper suggesting his party should focus more on issues (energy policy, community financing) than on party blocks (red-green vs. black-yellow). Federal party leader Özdemir (himself a 'realo' as Janecek) has immediately reminded Janecek to focus his efforts on the upcoming elections in Bavaria. The 'realos' in the party leadership obviously don't want to discuss federal-level coalition options now, with the new red-green Lower Saxony government yet to be formed. Moreover, a leaked survey for the Green party shows 72% of Grüne voters prefering red-green, and only 10% black-green. 55% of Grüne leaners would not vote for the party if it committed to a coalition with the CDU.
• FDP: After quite some drama and inner-circle closed-door meetings, the FDP has announced that Rainer Brüderle will be their top candidate for the federal elections, but Rösler remains party leader. Regicide averted or just postponed?
• Linke: The party has presented an eight-person leadership team that 'frames' notorious 'solo entertainer' Gregor Gysi, and orthodox-communist Sahra Wagenknecht, whose last-minute engagement in Lower Saxony had backfired. They furthermore announced readiness to support red-green on the Budesrat level (red-red-governed Brandenburg holds the critical votes)

[Franzl]

New Forsa poll (23.01.2013), Federal election:

CDU/CSU: 42%
SPD: 23%
Grüne: 14%
Linke: 8%

FDP: 4%
Piraten: 4%

CDU slightly short of absolute majority (42-45).
Red-Green far away from majority (37-50).

[Iannis]

New Forsa poll (23.01.2013), Federal election:

CDU/CSU: 42%
SPD: 23%
Grüne: 14%
Linke: 8%

FDP: 4%
Piraten: 4%

CDU slightly short of absolute majority (42-45).
Red-Green far away from majority (37-50).

Looking at Lower Saxony example we can be quite sure about FDP overcoming the threshold with some loan from CDU voters.

[Middle-aged Europe]

New Forsa poll (23.01.2013), Federal election:

CDU/CSU: 42%
SPD: 23%
Grüne: 14%
Linke: 8%

FDP: 4%
Piraten: 4%

CDU slightly short of absolute majority (42-45).
Red-Green far away from majority (37-50).

Looking at Lower Saxony example we can be quite sure about FDP overcoming the threshold with some loan from CDU voters.

Except that CDU supporters know now that a tactical vote for the FDP may actually hurt their own party rather than doing any good...

[Franzl]

New Forsa poll (23.01.2013), Federal election:

CDU/CSU: 42%
SPD: 23%
Grüne: 14%
Linke: 8%

FDP: 4%
Piraten: 4%

CDU slightly short of absolute majority (42-45).
Red-Green far away from majority (37-50).

Looking at Lower Saxony example we can be quite sure about FDP overcoming the threshold with some loan from CDU voters.

If the poll numbers were to stay the same (and that is, of course, a big if), and a CDU absolute majority were possible...I think they could convince their voters to forget about the FDP and make their own party as strong as possible.