2013 Elections in Germany

[ObserverIE]

• Red-Green campaigning for abolishment of college fees (Lower Saxony is one of the two states that still impose that fee) - I know from my sister and my sister-in-law, both with children that will finish school this year, that the issue was important, if not decisive for their vote

As a matter of interest, how much are college fees in those German states that charge them?

500 € / semester - not much in international comparison, but still a cost for parents.

Yes, em...

Here we're told that the current annual charges of €2,500 aren't nearly enough and that we need to increase fees to the same level as "most other countries" of about €7-9,000 p.a.

[ObserverIE]

So in addition to this 500 € / semester fee, how much does the student/parents pay for college in Germany.  I assume it is different for public and private universities.

500 € / semester - not much in international comparison, but still a cost for parents.

Most European countries either don't charge for university tuition in public universities, or charge nominal sums. The outstanding exception is the UK, with Ireland (AFAIK) having the next highest annual fees.

[jaichind]

Ok.  I guess I just need to calibrate my expectations on college expenses relative to my own personal experience.  Myself and many members of my family who are in USA all went to fairly elite and expense universities.  Back when I went back in the 1990s, it was $30K a year, relatives that went a decade later was $40K a year and now it is $50K a year.  Even public universities are around 10K-15K these days.  Other relatives that are back in Taiwan Province of ROC, the annual cost of college is around $2K which most people there find quite reasonable and is still higher than  500 €/semester especially given the relative low cost of living in Taiwan Province.   This is why I am taken aback that 500 €/semester would become a campaign issue that potentially shifted the result of this election. 

[Franknburger]

So in addition to this 500 € / semester fee, how much does the student/parents pay for college in Germany.  I assume it is different for public and private universities.

500 € / semester - not much in international comparison, but still a cost for parents.

The 500 €/ semester is for public colleges. Private colleges may be much, much more.

In addition, there is a semestrial contribution payable, which varies from University to University, but typically ranges around 200-300 €/ semester. This contribution usually covers the funding of things like student's councils, mensas, etc., and in most cases also public transport (i.e, each student is entitled to use inner-city public transport for free - that's why Universities in larger cities tend to have a higher semestrial contribution than those in small towns).

The key issue in a non-city state like Lower Saxony, however, is that parents need to either fund their children's housing at the study location, or transport to that place (and that means in most cases an extra car plus fuel money).

[jaichind]

I am always impressed by how good Germany exit polling are, especially in light of horrible exit polling in USA.  I wonder how Germany exit polling firms does it ? 

[Franknburger]

Ok.  I guess I just need to calibrate my expectations on college expenses relative to my own personal experience.  Myself and many members of my family who are in USA all went to fairly elite and expense universities.  Back when I went back in the 1990s, it was $30K a year, relatives that went a decade later was $40K a year and now it is $50K a year.  Even public universities are around 10K-15K these days.  Other relatives that are back in Taiwan Province of ROC, the annual cost of college is around $2K which most people there find quite reasonable and is still higher than  500 €/semester especially given the relative low cost of living in Taiwan Province.   This is why I am taken aback that 500 €/semester would become a campaign issue that potentially shifted the result of this election. 

Yep, I know, 500 €/ semester sounds peanuts  for most people outside Central Europe. However, you have to consider the following in this respect:

• Public colleges / universities have traditionally been free of charge (this dates back to the middle-ages), but also for quite some times been chronically under-financed. When black-yellow state governments started to introduce college fees, they promised that the extra revenue would be used to improve college education (more lecturers, etc.), and also hoped that this would increase incentives for colleges to orient more on students' demands. None of this has matierialised, however (essentially, the reform was half-hearted, 500 €/ student is nothing compared to the extra funding that can be gained from federal and EU research budgets). So, the common public perception is that college fees are just one more way for government to extract citizens' money, and the discussion is not solely about the fees themselves, but about government's spending prioriies (education vs. motorways / airports / "white elephants")
• Due to WW I & II, Germany has a unique demographic structure. The post-WW II 'baby boomers (my generation), born between 1959 and 1968, account for almost 20% of the population and some 25% of the electorate. They have induced a secondary 'baby boom' between 1985 and 2000 (with an early-1990s post-unification birth dip in East Germany) - and many of these kids are in college now, or expected to go there soon. As such, college education (and costs thereof) is not just a side issue, but quite central to the electorally dominating age group, plus most of new voters.

[jaichind]

You have to help me here.  Why would we view the results as McAllister's idea has backfired?  It seems to me if some CDU voters voted for FDP, that did not diminish the CDU/FDP total vote.  It seems the defeat was really a function of CDU+FDP votes numbered less than SPD+Green voters by a slim margin.  It seems if McAllister did not do what he did and FDP falls below 5%, that would just mean a larger SPD+Green majority as all FDP votes would have been wasted.  He merely came up with the only strategy that gave him a chance for him to keep his position.  The fact it did not work merely means that the votes were not there for him ever to win in this election, not that the idea is a bad one.

Some interesting results here, and I stand corrected on my overall prediction. At least I got "inflated FDP" tendentially right.

Talking about McAllister's very bad, not good, horrible day: His seemingly ingenious idea - give CDU voters a hint to vote FDP - backfired terribly. Not only did it not work; due to his shenanigans, his much celebrated and favoured CDU lost over 6% and 14 seats. Somehow I feel that his political future will lie outside of Lower Saxony.

For me, the real surprise of the evening was not the FDP's strong showing, but the all right result for the SPD. I had really expected for their vote to collapse, given the media climate right now. Instead they held their own, which I attribute to Stephan Weil, who was obviously perceived as a decent, competent candidate.

By the way: This is not over yet. One seat is a very thin majority, and red-green could have a hard time electing their PM, or hanging on for the full term.

[Franknburger]

]Some remarks on the regional profile of the parties:

• CDU: Unsurprisingly, the CDU stronghold has again been the catholic south-west of the state, where they passed 50% of the secondary (PV) vote in all but one district. Their strongest district was Vechta (57.8%), followed by Cloppenburg (57.6%).They also came out quite strong in the catholic Eichsfeld (Duderstadt district, 42.3%), and in the rural belt between the Hamburg, Bremen, Hannover and Brunswick/ Wolfsburg metro areas. They performed rather poorly in the large cities. Osnabrück South (31.2%) was their best urban district, and (unsurprisingly) Hannover-Linden (18.9%) their worst.  
• SPD: Equally unsurprising, the SPD has been most succesful in their traditional strongholds in East Frisia (north-west, Emden strongest district with 46.4%) and in the south-east. Since their candidate, Stefan Weil, used to be the mayor of Hannover, they still performed reasonably well in parts of that city, where they reached around 38%  Otherwise,  they did not reach above 34%, often not even 30%, in the main cities. Weakest, however, were they in the CDU-dominated catholic areas (Cloppenburg 16.8%)
• Grüne: They took the cities by storm, gaining more than 25% in Göttingen, Lüneburg, Oldenburg Mitte-Süd and Hannover-Mitte. They furthermore came out strong in the North-west (Gorleben nuclear waste dump),  the Hamburg and Bremen peripheries, and parts of the Hannover, Brunswick, Oldenburg and Göttingen peripheries. Their good result(13.8%) in the SPD stronghold of Emden comes as a surprise (or not, considering that Emden has become one of the largest windpower manufacturing sites in Germany). Their weakest regions continue to be the catholic CDU strongholds, but even in their worst district (Cloppenburg, 7.1 %), they managed to double their vote compared to 2008.
• [FDP: No clear regional pattern. Essentially, they tend to be stronger where the CDU is also stronger, with the best results in the predominantly protestant strip between Bremen and the Catholic south-west (Diepholz 14.5%, Oldenburg-Land 14.1%), and in rural protestant regions (e.g. Holzminden 14%). They fared worst in traditional blue-collar districts (steel, automotive) in the East (Salzgitter 5.7%)
• Linke: Interesting mix: Strong in green strongholds (Hannover-Linden 6,8%, Elbe/Gorleben 5.9%)), but also doing comparatively well in traditional blue-collar SPD strongholds such as East Frisia, Wilhelmshaven and Salzgitter. In CDU-dominated areas, they did not ger a feet on the ground. Their worst district was Lingen (1.6%)

[Franzl]

Tuition fees are certainly the main reason I would have voted SPD yesterday.

[Tender Branson]

So, Red-Green won by one ?

Nice.

[Franzl]

So, Red-Green won by one ?

Nice.

And no recount. Nobody going to court. Nobody claiming irregularities...

[Zanas]

I love European elections sometimes.

[Franzl]

Regarding Niedersachsen:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

According to wahlrecht.de

(Translation: If the SPD loses 1399 votes to the FDP, the red-green majority would be gone. A lot, but theoretically possible between now and the final result.)

[minionofmidas]

The Red-Green majority is actually a result of the legal oddity remarked on earlier.

135 seats using D'Hondt and a 5% threshold (as the state does): CDU 53, SPD 48, Greens 20, FDP 14
CDU won  54 direct seats; so 137 seats according to the law that the number of Ausgleich should (not must, there's an excemption but it's not applicable here) be equal to the number of Überhang... the 136th seat would have gone to the CDU anyways while the 137th seat goes to the SPD. And the 138th seat would be the FDP's, hence Franzl's post (though it's closer between 136 and 137).
If parliament were increased only to the minimum number necessary to keep things proportional, we'd have seen a tie. Of course there are also states with an odd "normal" number that add an extra seat if Überhang & Ausgleich lead to an even number, which in this case would have the same result as the rule Lower Saxony uses.

Now imagine if red-green hadn't also beat black-yellow by 12000 votes.


And it gets worse; Ste-Lague or Hare-Niemeyer (they exceedingly rarely disagree if you have a threshold that makes single-member parties impossible, and they don't do here) despite usually being more exactly proportional would have produced a false winner here - the seat distribution for 135 seats would be identical, but the 136th seat goes to the FDP, the 137th to the CDU, and it isn't the SPD's turn again til the 138th.
That's how close it was.


And while I'm at it, D'Hondt, no threshold, minimum necessary Ausgleich CDU 54, SPD 48, Greens 20, FDP 14 (obviously), Left 4, Pirates 3, FW 1, NPD 1. SPD-Greens-Left-Pirates (the two small groups presumably lending support rather than sitting in the government) or CDU-SPD.

[minionofmidas]

You have to help me here.  Why would we view the results as McAllister's idea has backfired?  It seems to me if some CDU voters voted for FDP, that did not diminish the CDU/FDP total vote.  It seems the defeat was really a function of CDU+FDP votes numbered less than SPD+Green voters by a slim margin.  It seems if McAllister did not do what he did and FDP falls below 5%, that would just mean a larger SPD+Green majority as all FDP votes would have been wasted.  He merely came up with the only strategy that gave him a chance for him to keep his position.  The fact it did not work merely means that the votes were not there for him ever to win in this election, not that the idea is a bad one.

Yes, but tell that to Christian Democratic MdLs out of a seat as a result.

The PM dropping hints himself may have been entirely unnecessary; if the FDP had gotten 5.2% and the CDU 40.7% without that (just on the strength of enough people figuring it out on their own; the FDP's "own" base support is 1 to 2% of the electorate), there wouldn't be any headlines about CDU losses now, it would all be (more or less rightly) considered the FDP's fault.

[mubar]

Yes, if education was the most important issue for voters and over 70% are against tuition fees, it's no wonder that the red-green victory could take place. One thing to remember, especially when following this from some country with high study fees is that in Germany or in its neighbors there's no tradition of study fees for public universities - you only pay the semester contribution (often to the student council) which entitles you to student discounts and free local public transport. About 10 years ago the black-yellow coalitions started introducing the 500€ semester fees, and at the high point in 2007-08 there were fees in all western states except Schleswig-Holstein and Rheinland-Pfalz (don't really know about Bremen though). But they were such a controversial issue that with red-green victories the fees have since been discontinued everywhere expect Bavaria and, until this election, Lower Saxony.

Regarding Niedersachsen:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

According to wahlrecht.de

(Translation: If the SPD loses 1399 votes to the FDP, the red-green majority would be gone. A lot, but theoretically possible between now and the final result.)

Close enough, although of course relatively unlikely.

Regarding the above situation with SPD getting the Ausgleichsmandat in d'Hondt, but FDP getting it in Sainte-Laguë or in Hare-Niemeyer, thus leading to a black-yellow majority again, the wahlrecht.de history says that Lower Saxony used to have d'Hondt until they changed it to Hare-Niemeyer after 1974 when FDP was in coalition with CDU and demanded it. But then before the 1986 elections CDU was governing alone and changed the method back to d'Hondt. So this loss was, in a way, the Union's own making.

[minionofmidas]

The corest core group of the FDP board is currently deliberating behind closed doors while the remainder of the board are waiting to be let in for the session that was supposed to have begun three-quarters of an hour ago.
The rumour is that Rösler has offered to resign... but possibly not in good faith. There's definitely something fishy going on.

[Franzl]

Yes, if education was the most important issue for voters and over 70% are against tuition fees, it's no wonder that the red-green victory could take place. One thing to remember, especially when following this from some country with high study fees is that in Germany or in its neighbors there's no tradition of study fees for public universities - you only pay the semester contribution (often to the student council) which entitles you to student discounts and free local public transport. About 10 years ago the black-yellow coalitions started introducing the 500€ semester fees, and at the high point in 2007-08 there were fees in all western states except Schleswig-Holstein and Rheinland-Pfalz (don't really know about Bremen though). But they were such a controversial issue that with red-green victories the fees have since been discontinued everywhere expect Bavaria and, until this election, Lower Saxony.

Yes, and education is one of the relatively few relevant things that states are exclusively entitled to legislate on, without any influence from the federal government. So it makes sense that education policy would be a deciding issue in a state election.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The corest core group of the FDP board is currently deliberating behind closed doors while the remainder of the board are waiting to be let in for the session that was supposed to have begun three-quarters of an hour ago.
The rumour is that Rösler has offered to resign... but possibly not in good faith. There's definitely something fishy going on.

Maybe Rösler knows that his times as party chairman are over, but he tries to take Brüderle down with him (revenge!) and install one of his allies as his successor instead?

We'll know more sometime later today.

[minionofmidas]

To all map-makers out there: No point in doing result maps, they are available at http://vis.uell.net/nds/13/atlas.html (with individually scaleable color ranges).

I love the tax data!

[minionofmidas]

Rösler to remain party chair, Brüderle to be "top candidate" for federal election.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Rösler to remain party chair, Brüderle to be "top candidate" for federal election.

Boring. I want to see some blood spilled.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

• Red-Green campaigning for abolishment of college fees (Lower Saxony is one of the two states that still impose that fee) - I know from my sister and my sister-in-law, both with children that will finish school this year, that the issue was important, if not decisive for their vote

As a matter of interest, how much are college fees in those German states that charge them?

500 € / semester - not much in international comparison, but still a cost for parents.

Yes, em...

Here we're told that the current annual charges of €2,500 aren't nearly enough and that we need to increase fees to the same level as "most other countries" of about €7-9,000 p.a.

It is (partly) for this reason that I'm currently in the Netherlands fyi to go OT for a brief moment.

[Franzl]

• Red-Green campaigning for abolishment of college fees (Lower Saxony is one of the two states that still impose that fee) - I know from my sister and my sister-in-law, both with children that will finish school this year, that the issue was important, if not decisive for their vote

As a matter of interest, how much are college fees in those German states that charge them?

500 € / semester - not much in international comparison, but still a cost for parents.

Yes, em...

Here we're told that the current annual charges of €2,500 aren't nearly enough and that we need to increase fees to the same level as "most other countries" of about €7-9,000 p.a.

It is (partly) for this reason that I'm currently in the Netherlands fyi to go OT for a brief moment.

They're not exactly cheap either, are they? Over 1000€ a semester, I believe?

[Insula Dei]

Yup. That's why we're flooded with Dutch students.