Israeli General Election: April 9, 2019

[DL]

Panels poll for Walla:

Blue & White 36
Likud 31
Hadash-Ta'al 9
Labour 8
UTJ 7
URWP 7
New Right 6
Meretz 6
Kulanu 6
Shas 4

YB (2.8%), Gesher (2.7%), Zehut (2.6%), Balad-Ra'am (1.6%) and others below threshold

Right-religious 61
Center-left-coalitionable Arab 59

That is if we assume that Kulanu will prop up Bibi...from what i've read that is far from certAIN

[America Needs R'hllor]

Panels poll for Walla:

Blue & White 36
Likud 31
Hadash-Ta'al 9
Labour 8
UTJ 7
URWP 7
New Right 6
Meretz 6
Kulanu 6
Shas 4

YB (2.8%), Gesher (2.7%), Zehut (2.6%), Balad-Ra'am (1.6%) and others below threshold

Right-religious 61
Center-left-coalitionable Arab 59

Interesting that YB seems to be consistently below the threshold.

[Walmart_shopper]

Panels poll for Walla:

Blue & White 36
Likud 31
Hadash-Ta'al 9
Labour 8
UTJ 7
URWP 7
New Right 6
Meretz 6
Kulanu 6
Shas 4

YB (2.8%), Gesher (2.7%), Zehut (2.6%), Balad-Ra'am (1.6%) and others below threshold

Right-religious 61
Center-left-coalitionable Arab 59

That is if we assume that Kulanu will prop up Bibi...from what i've read that is far from certAIN

Especially if that majority relies on one or two Kahanists for support. Kahlon threw a fit for four years about a majority of only 63. 60+the "deport the goyim" guy doesn't particularly sound like a formula to win over Kulanu. But who knows anymore.

[parochial boy]

A previous poll showed that 13% of B&W's support comes from Joint List 2015 voters. It seems as if some Arabs think holding their nose and voting for a Zionist party is worth it if it means they can get rid of Bibi (and the parties further right) by doing so.

That could just be a massive outlier of a subsample though. Are other polls saying the same thing?

The Arab parties getting about 9% of the vote combined seems like a return to normal after the Joint list did unusually well in 2015

[America Needs R'hllor]

Let me just note to everyone in this thread- the Druze hate it when you identify them as Arabs. They consider themselves distinct and their own minority in Israel.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit (reminder: Zionist Religious guy who was appointed by Netanyahu) recommended barring Michael Ben Ari from running to the next Knesset, while allowing Itamar Ben Gvir to run despite him "treading close to the red line". According to the AG, "most of the weight was given to Ben Ari's public statements that systematically incite against the Arabic public, in a way that brings hate. He called for a violent negation of the rights of the Arabic population, a systematic degradation of Arabs, calling them "a murderous nation" with "a murderous and traiterous character"." Like always, the Israeli right jumped to the defence of the Kahanists.

But since the Elections Committee is made up of party representatives, it seems that the Kahanists won't be barred from running, because Moshe Kahlon decided that his party's members will be absent from the vote.

Also, in the debate for their barring, Itamar Ben Gvir handed MK Stav Shafir a 0.5 Million Shekels lawsuit for allegedly calling him a nazi.

So while Shafir didn't call him a nazi because her position is much more dignified than mine, I can say what I think of that person: evil bag of nazi sh**t.

[DavidB.]

From a theoretical point of view, it is ridiculous that candidates can be barred from taking part in an election without a judge ruling on it, and it's even more ridiculous that it is party representatives making the ultimate decision.

[danny]

From a theoretical point of view, it is ridiculous that candidates can be barred from taking part in an election without a judge ruling on it, and it's even more ridiculous that it is party representatives making the ultimate decision.

In theory, yes, I agree. In practice the party voting is just for show and judges will make the decision.

[DavidB.]

From a theoretical point of view, it is ridiculous that candidates can be barred from taking part in an election without a judge ruling on it, and it's even more ridiculous that it is party representatives making the ultimate decision.

In theory, yes, I agree. In practice the party voting is just for show and judges will make the decision.

So if, hypothetically, parties vote to bar Ben-Ari from running, judges would still have to rule on it?

[danny]

From a theoretical point of view, it is ridiculous that candidates can be barred from taking part in an election without a judge ruling on it, and it's even more ridiculous that it is party representatives making the ultimate decision.

In theory, yes, I agree. In practice the party voting is just for show and judges will make the decision.

So if, hypothetically, parties vote to bar Ben-Ari from running, judges would still have to rule on it?

Yes, Balad has been "banned" many times, but it always gets reversed.

[DavidB.]

From a theoretical point of view, it is ridiculous that candidates can be barred from taking part in an election without a judge ruling on it, and it's even more ridiculous that it is party representatives making the ultimate decision.

In theory, yes, I agree. In practice the party voting is just for show and judges will make the decision.

So if, hypothetically, parties vote to bar Ben-Ari from running, judges would still have to rule on it?

Yes, Balad has been "banned" many times, but it always gets reversed.

Got it, thanks.

[Hnv1]

Let me just note to everyone in this thread- the Druze hate it when you identify them as Arabs. They consider themselves distinct and their own minority in Israel.

that's an exaggeration. The Druze have a variety of positions within them and some are pro-arab (Hadash had 2 druze MKs, one of which was Mohammad Nafaa)

[DavidB.]

The Central Election Commission voted 16-15 to approve Ben-Ari's candidacy.

[Walmart_shopper]

The Central Election Commission voted 16-15 to approve Ben-Ari's candidacy.

And it's already being petitioned to the Supreme Court.

[danny]

The Central Election Commission voted 16-15 to approve Ben-Ari's candidacy.

And it's already being petitioned to the Supreme Court.

Naturally, it's all part of the same kabuki dance we get every election.

[DC Al Fine]

Is there any good polling of party support by income, education, or socioeconomic status? If not, could someone provude some broad strokes? Or are the differences comparatively trivial due to the dominance of non-tax and spend issues?

As a general rule Likud is the bastion of the poorer, especially Mizrahi working class who live in the area in Israel called the Periphery, which is pretty much anything outside of the wealthy and liberal "Center."  Labor is the party of the Ashkenazi upper class. However Yesh Atid with its emphasis on liberal economics and secularism has actually taken a big bite out of that apple. Meretz is the young people's party, especially in Tel Aviv and in liberal parts of Jerusalem (what few there are).

Older voters tend to be more faithful to the Labor Party of their youth. A lot of people say that young people are more likely to be on the right in Israel , but that's not actually true. Young voters are incredibly polarized, with many being strongly secular liberals who prefer a democratic euro-state, and the others being a very religious group that prefers a Jewish ethno-religious state. The truth, though, is that young voters in Israel are probably some of the most disengaged and disenchanted in the world. They are as a whole very secular and liberal on social and religious issues,but are probably more to the right on security issues. There is also a growing Haredi demographic that is, well, Haredi. There is also a growing demographic of ex-Haredi young people that are fairly anti-Haredi.

Politics is mostly about cultural and ideological identity, though. Labor is fairly centrist for a Labor party, economically,amd Likud is fairly centrist for a new economically liberal party. So there are not huge fissures on those issues. The big questions are really over the Palestinian question and,  perhaps even more than what, the degree to which Israel's democratic character should outweigh, if at all, its Jewish character. There are major issues with religion, race, and culture buries in there, which is why politics are so volatile here.

Thanks. Most of the economic analysis seems reasonable, but I want to push back a bit on the bolded point.

Pew did a very detailed study on religious practice in Israel and found the following among other things.



Unlike the Anglosphere, there doesn't seem to be any significant difference in religious practice between young and old Israeli Jews.

[Vosem]

In some late-breaking list action, Pinchas Idan, the former head of the Israel Airports Authority union, who won 19th spot on the Likud slate and was a close ally of Welfare Minister MK Haim Katz, was disqualified by the Supreme Court today for having held a state job too recently. It's too late to replace him in his slot, which was one of the ones reserved for regional candidates, so everybody at the 20th spot and up gets to move up one spot. Likud is currently polling at an average of 29 seats in the Knesset Jeremy average, so this move works to replace Idan with Michal Shir (an ally of Gideon Saar and representative of the Tel Aviv region).

[Walmart_shopper]

Moshe Kahlon's profile in courage was basically minted with his abstention on whether the ethnic cleansing party's Michael Ben Ari should be allowed to run. This is exactly how he rolls, though. He preens as "the sane right" and then rolls over for the insane right.

Apparently the police are actually considering prosecuting Ben Ari, who is also banned from entering the United States.

[Walmart_shopper]

Is there any good polling of party support by income, education, or socioeconomic status? If not, could someone provude some broad strokes? Or are the differences comparatively trivial due to the dominance of non-tax and spend issues?

As a general rule Likud is the bastion of the poorer, especially Mizrahi working class who live in the area in Israel called the Periphery, which is pretty much anything outside of the wealthy and liberal "Center."  Labor is the party of the Ashkenazi upper class. However Yesh Atid with its emphasis on liberal economics and secularism has actually taken a big bite out of that apple. Meretz is the young people's party, especially in Tel Aviv and in liberal parts of Jerusalem (what few there are).

Older voters tend to be more faithful to the Labor Party of their youth. A lot of people say that young people are more likely to be on the right in Israel , but that's not actually true. Young voters are incredibly polarized, with many being strongly secular liberals who prefer a democratic euro-state, and the others being a very religious group that prefers a Jewish ethno-religious state. The truth, though, is that young voters in Israel are probably some of the most disengaged and disenchanted in the world. They are as a whole very secular and liberal on social and religious issues,but are probably more to the right on security issues. There is also a growing Haredi demographic that is, well, Haredi. There is also a growing demographic of ex-Haredi young people that are fairly anti-Haredi.

Politics is mostly about cultural and ideological identity, though. Labor is fairly centrist for a Labor party, economically,amd Likud is fairly centrist for a new economically liberal party. So there are not huge fissures on those issues. The big questions are really over the Palestinian question and,  perhaps even more than what, the degree to which Israel's democratic character should outweigh, if at all, its Jewish character. There are major issues with religion, race, and culture buries in there, which is why politics are so volatile here.

Thanks. Most of the economic analysis seems reasonable, but I want to push back a bit on the bolded point.

Pew did a very detailed study on religious practice in Israel and found the following among other things.



Unlike the Anglosphere, there doesn't seem to be any significant difference in religious practice between young and old Israeli Jews.

I think you read too much into what I wrote. I didn't say that younger Israelis were more secular than older Israelis. Only that they are on the whole quite secular, which your own data makes amply clear.

[Vosem]

In some late-breaking list action, Pinchas Idan, the former head of the Israel Airports Authority union, who won 19th spot on the Likud slate and was a close ally of Welfare Minister MK Haim Katz, was disqualified by the Supreme Court today for having held a state job too recently. It's too late to replace him in his slot, which was one of the ones reserved for regional candidates, so everybody at the 20th spot and up gets to move up one spot. Likud is currently polling at an average of 29 seats in the Knesset Jeremy average, so this move works to replace Idan with Michal Shir (an ally of Gideon Saar and representative of the Tel Aviv region).

On this note, because the lists are set, disqualifying a candidate just bumps everyone who's below them on the list up a level, right? So if Ben-Ari is disqualified even as the remainder of the Otzma representatives are allowed to run, Ben-Gvir would be bumped to 7th on their list, not 5th -- which isn't impossible, but is a fairly tall order. It would mean Otzma is likelier not to be represented than to be represented in the next Knesset.

Edit: I do enjoy that Netanyahu's last-minute efforts to unite small right-wing parties seem to have totally failed; in the Kan poll released today, there are no less than seven right-wing parties who have a level of support between 2% and 5% (note the threshold is at 3.25%): from top to bottom, Shas, Kulanu, the United Right, the New Right, Zehut, Yisrael Beiteinu, and Gesher all fit into this category. Bad luck with the threshold for the right looks like the only way for Blue & White to plausibly form a government without Likud; would be deeply amusing if this is the ultimate result of Lieberman's Law.

[Hnv1]

In some late-breaking list action, Pinchas Idan, the former head of the Israel Airports Authority union, who won 19th spot on the Likud slate and was a close ally of Welfare Minister MK Haim Katz, was disqualified by the Supreme Court today for having held a state job too recently. It's too late to replace him in his slot, which was one of the ones reserved for regional candidates, so everybody at the 20th spot and up gets to move up one spot. Likud is currently polling at an average of 29 seats in the Knesset Jeremy average, so this move works to replace Idan with Michal Shir (an ally of Gideon Saar and representative of the Tel Aviv region).

On this note, because the lists are set, disqualifying a candidate just bumps everyone who's below them on the list up a level, right? So if Ben-Ari is disqualified even as the remainder of the Otzma representatives are allowed to run, Ben-Gvir would be bumped to 7th on their list, not 5th -- which isn't impossible, but is a fairly tall order. It would mean Otzma is likelier not to be represented than to be represented in the next Knesset.

Edit: I do enjoy that Netanyahu's last-minute efforts to unite small right-wing parties seem to have totally failed; in the Kan poll released today, there are no less than seven right-wing parties who have a level of support between 2% and 5% (note the threshold is at 3.25%): from top to bottom, Shas, Kulanu, the United Right, the New Right, Zehut, Yisrael Beiteinu, and Gesher all fit into this category. Bad luck with the threshold for the right looks like the only way for Blue & White to plausibly form a government without Likud; would be deeply amusing if this is the ultimate result of Lieberman's Law.

The threshold is a market entry barrier, they implemented it to screw the Arabs so it only serves them that their non liberal policy blew up in their face.

Bibi always fantasized about a large Israeli 'republican party' swallowing all those little parties around him. so he might push for this after the election if he's still afloat

[DC Al Fine]

In some late-breaking list action, Pinchas Idan, the former head of the Israel Airports Authority union, who won 19th spot on the Likud slate and was a close ally of Welfare Minister MK Haim Katz, was disqualified by the Supreme Court today for having held a state job too recently. It's too late to replace him in his slot, which was one of the ones reserved for regional candidates, so everybody at the 20th spot and up gets to move up one spot. Likud is currently polling at an average of 29 seats in the Knesset Jeremy average, so this move works to replace Idan with Michal Shir (an ally of Gideon Saar and representative of the Tel Aviv region).

On this note, because the lists are set, disqualifying a candidate just bumps everyone who's below them on the list up a level, right? So if Ben-Ari is disqualified even as the remainder of the Otzma representatives are allowed to run, Ben-Gvir would be bumped to 7th on their list, not 5th -- which isn't impossible, but is a fairly tall order. It would mean Otzma is likelier not to be represented than to be represented in the next Knesset.

Edit: I do enjoy that Netanyahu's last-minute efforts to unite small right-wing parties seem to have totally failed; in the Kan poll released today, there are no less than seven right-wing parties who have a level of support between 2% and 5% (note the threshold is at 3.25%): from top to bottom, Shas, Kulanu, the United Right, the New Right, Zehut, Yisrael Beiteinu, and Gesher all fit into this category. Bad luck with the threshold for the right looks like the only way for Blue & White to plausibly form a government without Likud; would be deeply amusing if this is the ultimate result of Lieberman's Law.

Is there any particular reason why the Arabs formed joint lists to protect themselves from losing all their seats while the small right wing parties did not?

[Hnv1]

In some late-breaking list action, Pinchas Idan, the former head of the Israel Airports Authority union, who won 19th spot on the Likud slate and was a close ally of Welfare Minister MK Haim Katz, was disqualified by the Supreme Court today for having held a state job too recently. It's too late to replace him in his slot, which was one of the ones reserved for regional candidates, so everybody at the 20th spot and up gets to move up one spot. Likud is currently polling at an average of 29 seats in the Knesset Jeremy average, so this move works to replace Idan with Michal Shir (an ally of Gideon Saar and representative of the Tel Aviv region).

On this note, because the lists are set, disqualifying a candidate just bumps everyone who's below them on the list up a level, right? So if Ben-Ari is disqualified even as the remainder of the Otzma representatives are allowed to run, Ben-Gvir would be bumped to 7th on their list, not 5th -- which isn't impossible, but is a fairly tall order. It would mean Otzma is likelier not to be represented than to be represented in the next Knesset.

Edit: I do enjoy that Netanyahu's last-minute efforts to unite small right-wing parties seem to have totally failed; in the Kan poll released today, there are no less than seven right-wing parties who have a level of support between 2% and 5% (note the threshold is at 3.25%): from top to bottom, Shas, Kulanu, the United Right, the New Right, Zehut, Yisrael Beiteinu, and Gesher all fit into this category. Bad luck with the threshold for the right looks like the only way for Blue & White to plausibly form a government without Likud; would be deeply amusing if this is the ultimate result of Lieberman's Law.

Is there any particular reason why the Arabs formed joint lists to protect themselves from losing all their seats while the small right wing parties did not?

Arab voters are more desperate.
between all those parties that aren't that many possible alliances, and there's too much ego.

Gesher and Kulano could have merged but ego
YB isn't fit to merge with any of those. Or Zehut for the matter.
Shas could only reasonably merge with UTJ.
And the New Right could work with any of those.

[Famous Mortimer]

Two elections ago, YB was running in an alliance with Likud and people were talking about the possibility of Lieberman becoming Likud leader/PM after Netanyahu. Now he's not even going to be re-elected. Israeli is fickle. On the other hand, Israeli politics is fickle. So he'll probably still end up being Prime Minister somehow in some ridiculous way no one ever expected.

[parochial boy]

Regarding Shas, and this is probably a dumb and slightly roundabout question - they always get described as a Haredi party. But to what extent is that actually the case? I mean, I was under the impression that their electorate was as much traditionalist and based around Mizrahi identity as much as anything else? And aren't the Haredi movements something that is much more Ashkenazi?