Ohio Ballot Issue 1 Megathread (August 8) (user search)
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  Ohio Ballot Issue 1 Megathread (August 8) (search mode)
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Poll
Question: ^
#1
Yes >90%		  
#2
Yes >80%		  
#3
Yes >70%		  
#4
Yes >60%		  
#5
Yes >50%		  
#6
No >50%		  
#7
No >60%		  
#8
No >70%		  
#9
No >80%		  
#10
No >90%		  
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results
Total Voters: 96

Author Topic: Ohio Ballot Issue 1 Megathread (August 8)  (Read 11031 times)
Oryxslayer
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« on: July 16, 2023, 04:06:09 PM »
Accidentally voted Yes >60% when I meant No by the same margin. The hesitant folks will point to this being a vote on more than what is written. The simple truth is your average voter just doesn't like have power stripped from them, and loves getting more power over politicians - see things like term limits and public redistricting commissions.

Quote from: Tekken_Guy on July 16, 2023, 08:16:50 AM
This very issue was on the ballot in Arkansas last November and lost by nearly 20 points. I don’t see any way this will even come close.

In addition to this, we had somewhat similar issues rejected by SD voters in 2022 by 67-33, ND voters 62-38 in 2020, AR 56-44 in 2020, and SD again by 54-46 in 2018.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1 on: July 18, 2023, 06:43:33 PM »
Quote from: politicallefty on July 18, 2023, 05:02:35 PM
Quote from: Fuzzy Bear on July 16, 2023, 12:57:53 PM
Unfortunately, I think it will fail.

Constitutional Amendments SHOULD have to reach a higher threshold than just 50%.  Frankly, I think more bad ideas get voted in through such referenda than through the acts of the worst legislatures.

It's worse than just implementing a 60% threshold (as much as I may disagree with that in and of itself). It also requires a set number of signatures from every single county in the state, compared with half under the current setup. I think the part that makes it particularly insidious though is that it also removes the cure period. Under the current system, organizers have 10 days to get the necessary signatures if they fell short after submitting them to the state. In other words, if organizers gathered a million signatures from across the state and missed the requisite target in one county by just a single signature, they would have to start over from scratch (and almost certainly not in the same year).

I'm not sure how this will end up. However, it seems like abortion rights groups are rightly treating this as a life or death issue. With a likely abortion rights initiative on the ballot this November, a 60% threshold would make it far more difficult to pass. (The signature collection provisions wouldn't go into effect until next year.) From what I've read, this initiative is also about preventing a new redistricting amendment from passing.

Yeah a redistricting amendment that produces a process which isn't led by politicians is the next thing in the pipe for activists. Though that itself is a big unknown since there is potentially a remap occurring in the fall with the body having undergone some member changes since 2021/22.

There's a world where the issue drops to the backburner if the process is orderly and the product acceptable.  There is also a world where the new constitutional body is called to order before 2026.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #2 on: July 27, 2023, 03:18:37 PM »
« Edited: July 27, 2023, 05:17:40 PM by Oryxslayer »
Updating thread of campaign finance for issue 1:
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #3 on: August 07, 2023, 08:00:13 AM »
Quote from: Old School Republican on August 07, 2023, 12:24:06 AM


I have seen quite a few posts on social media of prominent Republicans who are outside the formal political institutions - that's important - going hard against issue 1.  The line of criticism being that this all but removes the public handbrake on limiting government action.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #4 on: August 08, 2023, 02:28:14 PM »
« Edited: August 08, 2023, 06:40:37 PM by GeorgiaModerate »


Low income minority voters and non-november elections,  name a more recognizable duo.




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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #5 on: August 08, 2023, 05:46:06 PM »


Big Madison vs Milwaukee vibes here, but it makes sense since this is not a regular November election and it's not an issue that has a immediately direct impact.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #6 on: August 08, 2023, 06:41:53 PM »
The gap between the EV and Eday would have to be large even for what we have come to expect, looking just at the results in Republican counties. Only thing that should matter now is the margins.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #7 on: August 08, 2023, 07:13:25 PM »
Quote from: MaxQue on August 08, 2023, 07:06:18 PM

I've always thought it was more to improve his stanting with social conservatives for the Senate primary, through I'm sure Republicans would have liked the buffer to protect against abortion, marijuana and fair redistricting measures.

I would say he now has a rough couple of months ahead. The electorate won't care about this failing in a few weeks, but it will care about November's Abortion and Marijuana questions. LaRose is damned if they succeed, which it the common wisdom, since he's gonna get criticized for not doing enough to help them. And if he alternatively does tie himself to the conservative flagpoles then he's probably gonna lose the Republicans who went 'Yes' to Dolan.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #8 on: August 08, 2023, 07:17:31 PM »
Quote from: Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist on August 08, 2023, 07:14:03 PM
Quote from: Holmes on August 08, 2023, 07:05:35 PM
Not Holmes county voting yes... I'm renouncing them

It's like it's the most Republican county in the whole state and also full of super-anti-abortion Amish people.

Will be interesting if Geauga stays for 'No' in the end cause it also has a lot of Amish. But it also has usually-GOP suburbs that right now are pulling hard in the EV for 'No.'
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #9 on: August 08, 2023, 07:40:13 PM »
Sandusky is the first county to be done according to NYT: 56-44 YES. 8 point Swing from 63-35 Trump in 2020.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #10 on: August 08, 2023, 08:01:37 PM »
AP projects it for No.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #11 on: August 08, 2023, 08:25:46 PM »
Astabula actually flips back into the 'No" column right at the buzzer, defying the trend of counties getting more GOP-favoring with each vote drop.

Turns out the 'No" camp's strongest warriors were across the Cleveland Media Market, with the awkward exception of Cleveland itself and it's depressingly low low-income urban minority turnout.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #12 on: August 08, 2023, 08:28:25 PM »
Quote from: Bernie Huckabee Sanders on August 08, 2023, 08:24:38 PM
I'm guessing that most "Yes" (and probably most "no") voters were motivated by/only thinking about abortion when voting but this bill would've gone further. Had "yes" won, it would've meant the adaptation of Florida's horrid system which would've been a thorn in the side of democracy. Interestingly though the county map so far reminds me a bit of the 2008 presidential election map but with lopsided margins.

I noted yesterday that there were prominent conservative commutators outside of the formal political system who were pushing hard for 'No,' specifically cause they didn't want to effectively eliminate a limited government handbrake.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #13 on: August 08, 2023, 08:34:24 PM »
Montgomery (Dayton) is the first big county to finish counting: 61-39 No. large swing from the 50-47 Biden numbers in 2020, and the generally 50-50 tied results in most elections.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #14 on: August 09, 2023, 11:10:31 AM »
Quote from: Old School Republican on August 09, 2023, 10:52:04 AM
Quote from: KNOCKED LOOSE MOTHERF[INKS]ER on August 09, 2023, 09:05:33 AM
Quote from: Yoda on August 09, 2023, 12:24:54 AM
Quote from: KNOCKED LOOSE MOTHERF[INKS]ER on August 08, 2023, 11:51:39 PM
This was a really stupid ass idea. This sort of thing would always run behind an abortion ban, so what's the point? Did they seriously think they'd actually win over enough pro-choice voters to the Yes side?

No, they simply hoped (and this really was their "plan", I'm not making this up) that enough voters would not be paying attention and that the electorate would be strongly old and republican leaning.

That's still total Galaxy Brain sh!t. Republicans continue to fail to understand how social media works amongst other things.

I'm reminded of the Doomers who insisted that Trump's Postal Service sabotage would destroy Biden's chances because loads of Democrats would wait until the last days to mail in their ballots and no one would pay attention to the news about it and Democratic GOTV operations would completely ignore it because "voters are stupid." And then it got huge publicity and coverage and that didn't happen!

They thought cause given that they did succeed in passing such measure in FL , it would be successful in OH too .



Note that it passed in Florida, in 2006 of all years, cause the initiative process in the years immediately preceding it was actually being abused with things people didn't think needed to be on the ballot. And since then it hasn't exactly stopped popular liberal initiatives from passing.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #15 on: August 09, 2023, 03:39:03 PM »
« Edited: August 09, 2023, 04:19:55 PM by Oryxslayer »
Quote from: President Johnson on August 09, 2023, 03:16:40 PM
I really don't understand Republican obsession with abortion laws. Especially since this caused that much backlash. Is that really the hill they want to die upon?



Answer: Nationalization of politics.

White Evangelical Protestants are the ones who actually like and support this policy. Catholic and non-White opinion is predicated and influenced by other factors that split the groups into unequal sizes. For example Louisiana rural White Catholics have similar opinions to their Evangelical neighbors, but the same cannot be said of northeastern Irish descendants. The sum total of these groups though oppose bans at the national level, even if individual subgroups may have differing opinions.
 And obviously this is before we talk about Jewish, agnostic, non-religious, and all the other smaller denominations that usually are fierce opponents.

White Evangelical Protestants are almost entirely a GOP electorate. As seen on the map, they make up a majority - or something very close to it - of the Republican vote in at least 15 states.  When taking into account other areas where they have significant influence, like North Florida and East Texas, we come to something very close to half the electorates of the National party: Congressmen, Senators, and Electoral Votes.

A smarter, or more importantly a less nationalized system would see the GOP in the Evangelical areas support bans. They are following their electorate and the normal political channels of influence. Reminder that many of these states had referendums on abortion bans pre-2022, to set up trigger-laws that would go into effect if Roe was overturned. And they passed. In the rest of the country, the majority, they would oppose such efforts, or limit the policy to restrictions at a level acceptable to their state's electorate. But because identity politics is nationalized, and the Evangelical identity has such a presence within the GOP, they can keep pushing and won't face any internal party opposition.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #16 on: August 28, 2023, 12:23:17 PM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on August 24, 2023, 06:58:47 PM
The Ohio SOS site says they still have nearly 60K absentee and provisional ballots to count.... I guess they're just never going to count them

They are getting added now. But the newspaper sites may have stopped updating,  so check the state site if you care.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #17 on: September 09, 2023, 08:59:14 PM »
« Edited: September 10, 2023, 07:42:11 AM by Oryxslayer »






With the final votes added and counts officially in,  now there are maps.
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