Ohio Ballot Issue 1 Megathread (August 8)

[Pollster]

I'm neither a good chef nor a meat eater but I know a cooked goose when I see one.

[Roll Roons]

No one actually thought this would succeed, right?

[Nyvin]

No one actually thought this would succeed, right?

Ask LaRose

[Atlas Force]

I'm neither a good chef nor a meat eater but I know a cooked goose when I see one.

LOL

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Tip: Polls usually underestimate "No" on any change ballot issue.

[It’s so Joever]

No one actually thought this would succeed, right?

No but I'm bored without any other elections to watch right now so I am pretending its not an obvious conclusion.

[Holmes]

Not Holmes county voting yes... I'm renouncing them

[MaxQue]

No one actually thought this would succeed, right?

Ask LaRose

I've always thought it was more to improve his stanting with social conservatives for the Senate primary, through I'm sure Republicans would have liked the buffer to protect against abortion, marijuana and fair redistricting measures.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

No one actually thought this would succeed, right?

No but I'm bored without any other elections to watch right now so I am pretending its not an obvious conclusion.

I'm still interested in the final margin. 10, 15, 20, or 25?

[MaxQue]

No one actually thought this would succeed, right?

No but I'm bored without any other elections to watch right now so I am pretending its not an obvious conclusion.

I'm still interested in the final margin. 10, 15, 20, or 25?

No votes in Akron yet, so I would assume above 20.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

First off, awesome result already. Secondly, will be very curious to see the margins, see just how hard the Resistance Libs blew the doors off in the suburbs.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

No one actually thought this would succeed, right?

No but I'm bored without any other elections to watch right now so I am pretending its not an obvious conclusion.

I'm still interested in the final margin. 10, 15, 20, or 25?

No votes in Akron yet, so I would assume above 20.

A bigger factor is that most of the votes so far are early, and it will narrow down significantly. Ohio's earliest reported votes are usually pretty representative in geography, but not in vote type.

Usually the Republican gains 20+ points from the early votes (at 30-40% reported) to the final result. Around 70% reported is when the results start becoming representative.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Here's how Yes can still win!

[Oryxslayer]

No one actually thought this would succeed, right?

Ask LaRose

I've always thought it was more to improve his stanting with social conservatives for the Senate primary, through I'm sure Republicans would have liked the buffer to protect against abortion, marijuana and fair redistricting measures.

I would say he now has a rough couple of months ahead. The electorate won't care about this failing in a few weeks, but it will care about November's Abortion and Marijuana questions. LaRose is damned if they succeed, which it the common wisdom, since he's gonna get criticized for not doing enough to help them. And if he alternatively does tie himself to the conservative flagpoles then he's probably gonna lose the Republicans who went 'Yes' to Dolan.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1689066462361817088
Official now

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Not Holmes county voting yes... I'm renouncing them

It's like it's the most Republican county in the whole state and also full of super-anti-abortion Amish people.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Even though it's still the early vote, Yes shouldn't be currently down in so many rural counties if it were to be competitive.

[Storr]

Ohio: Welcome to the resistance

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Summit county is in, and it's failing by the exact same margin as Cuyahoga county, and by a larger margin than Lucas county. No is also currently leading 70 to 30 in Delaware County. Very brutal beating in the suburbs.

[Oryxslayer]

Not Holmes county voting yes... I'm renouncing them

It's like it's the most Republican county in the whole state and also full of super-anti-abortion Amish people.

Will be interesting if Geauga stays for 'No' in the end cause it also has a lot of Amish. But it also has usually-GOP suburbs that right now are pulling hard in the EV for 'No.'

[It’s so Joever]

If Pike County's estimated vote isn't an error by the NYT, its at 79% with Yes leading 59-40. Vance won this with 70%.

[GeorgiaModerate]

No one actually thought this would succeed, right?

One sixth of the voters (16 out of 96) in our poll did, although I'm sure some of them voted Yes just to troll.

[Roll Roons]

Not Holmes county voting yes... I'm renouncing them

It's like it's the most Republican county in the whole state and also full of super-anti-abortion Amish people.

Will be interesting if Geauga stays for 'No' in the end cause it also has a lot of Amish. But it also has usually-GOP suburbs that right now are pulling hard in the EV for 'No.'

It should. Geauga is far more college-educated than the state as a whole.

[BigZuck08]

https://decisiondeskhq.com/election-results-ohio-issue-1-and-the-mississippi-primary/

"No" has just won with Ohio Issue 1.

[It’s so Joever]

If one were to extrapolate the Pike County result and apply universal swing (a dumb thing to do but hey im bored) No wins by 16 (58-42)