Ohio Ballot Issue 1 Megathread (August 8)

[WalterWhite]

This result shows why Trump is the only Republican who can be competitive in the rust belt. His secular brand allows him to win socially moderate voters that no other Republican can.

Mike DeWine won reelection by 25 points.

I think they meant on the Presidential level.

But even so, Ohio is different from other Rust Belt states; it has always been more Republican than its Rust Belt neighbors (Michigan and Pennsylvania) since 1988.

[Yoda]

This was a really stupid ass idea. This sort of thing would always run behind an abortion ban, so what's the point? Did they seriously think they'd actually win over enough pro-choice voters to the Yes side?

No, they simply hoped (and this really was their "plan", I'm not making this up) that enough voters would not be paying attention and that the electorate would be strongly old and republican leaning.

[WalterWhite]

This was a really stupid ass idea. This sort of thing would always run behind an abortion ban, so what's the point? Did they seriously think they'd actually win over enough pro-choice voters to the Yes side?

No, they simply hoped (and this really was their "plan", I'm not making this up) that enough voters would not be paying attention and that the electorate would be strongly old and republican leaning.

That might have worked if this were literally any other issue, LOL

But abortion is too controversial NOT to drive up turnout

[Yoda]

This was a really stupid ass idea. This sort of thing would always run behind an abortion ban, so what's the point? Did they seriously think they'd actually win over enough pro-choice voters to the Yes side?

No, they simply hoped (and this really was their "plan", I'm not making this up) that enough voters would not be paying attention and that the electorate would be strongly old and republican leaning.

That might have worked if this were literally any other issue, LOL

But abortion is too controversial NOT to drive up turnout

Exactly.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Good.

Now on to November.

Do you think OHio voters will back abortion rights by a higher margin than MIchigan voters last year? The polls would suggest yes, but I am not sure. I think it will end up with 55-60% support, give or take.

[Dave Hedgehog]

I guessed a 50-60% No victory and it looks like it has been just that. Clearly enough people to see it for the power grab it was, but still evidence of a state which is becoming increasingly inflexibly conservative on the whole, with huge numbers voting immovably in lockstep with the GOP because "muh liberals". The fact that the end result was narrower than the Kansas abortion referendum is something I find quite telling. Is Ohio possibly now the more right-leaning state of the two?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Fantastic news! I hope Democrats can rush to put a real anti-gerrymandering initiative on top of the abortion one as well. We need to strike the iron while it's hot and neuter the GOP legislature as much as possible.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

I really was not paying much attention to this vote and I thought it would've been funny if it passed with like 58 or 59% of the vote, but this is a much more agreeable outcome.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's over for Rs they can't afford to lose OH and as I always said even with Ryan OH has 12 and 12 blk and Arab it's a purple state

Rs got took cocky again when OH went R again in 22

[Skill and Chance]

I guessed a 50-60% No victory and it looks like it has been just that. Clearly enough people to see it for the power grab it was, but still evidence of a state which is becoming increasingly inflexibly conservative on the whole, with huge numbers voting immovably in lockstep with the GOP because "muh liberals". The fact that the end result was narrower than the Kansas abortion referendum is something I find quite telling. Is Ohio possibly now the more right-leaning state of the two?

On social issues?  Almost surely!

Keep in mind there are almost surely more people who didn't want to make it harder to pass a referendum even though they are more pro-life than the November amendment than vice versa.  The ballots didn't literally say "abortion" this time around.  

[Mr. Illini]

It’s pretty clear where public opinion is on the abortion issue and it was before Dobbs. If Republicans want to stake their future election odds on the issue, that’s good with me.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/BruneElections/status/1689101081496653824

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's funny you never see any Rs around when OH and WI goes D not R

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

https://twitter.com/joingles/status/1689091541841666048?s=46&t=fshjefG8I94_J...

The people who planned the election said there wasn’t enough time to properly campaign

[Atlas Force]

Frank LaCope

https://twitter.com/FrankLaRose/status/1689115199398428672

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This was a really stupid ass idea. This sort of thing would always run behind an abortion ban, so what's the point? Did they seriously think they'd actually win over enough pro-choice voters to the Yes side?

No, they simply hoped (and this really was their "plan", I'm not making this up) that enough voters would not be paying attention and that the electorate would be strongly old and republican leaning.

That's still total Galaxy Brain sh!t. Republicans continue to fail to understand how social media works amongst other things.

I'm reminded of the Doomers who insisted that Trump's Postal Service sabotage would destroy Biden's chances because loads of Democrats would wait until the last days to mail in their ballots and no one would pay attention to the news about it and Democratic GOTV operations would completely ignore it because "voters are stupid." And then it got huge publicity and coverage and that didn't happen!

[WalterWhite]

There was roughly equal turnout amongst both Republican and Democratic counties, and the "No" side won by 14%. This is enough proof that Ohio is a pro-choice state.

[Jerseyan]

There was roughly equal turnout amongst both Republican and Democratic counties, and the "No" side won by 14%. This is enough proof that Ohio is a pro-choice state.

Honestly, if you put it to a vote nationwide, only a handful of states would vote against abortion rights. Its just a matter of how important of an issue it is to voters in their respective states.

[OSR stands with Israel]

This was a really stupid ass idea. This sort of thing would always run behind an abortion ban, so what's the point? Did they seriously think they'd actually win over enough pro-choice voters to the Yes side?

No, they simply hoped (and this really was their "plan", I'm not making this up) that enough voters would not be paying attention and that the electorate would be strongly old and republican leaning.

That's still total Galaxy Brain sh!t. Republicans continue to fail to understand how social media works amongst other things.

I'm reminded of the Doomers who insisted that Trump's Postal Service sabotage would destroy Biden's chances because loads of Democrats would wait until the last days to mail in their ballots and no one would pay attention to the news about it and Democratic GOTV operations would completely ignore it because "voters are stupid." And then it got huge publicity and coverage and that didn't happen!

They thought cause given that they did succeed in passing such measure in FL , it would be successful in OH too .

https://twitter.com/astrohxncho/status/1689055847442522120?s=20

[MasterJedi]

This was a really stupid ass idea. This sort of thing would always run behind an abortion ban, so what's the point? Did they seriously think they'd actually win over enough pro-choice voters to the Yes side?

No, they simply hoped (and this really was their "plan", I'm not making this up) that enough voters would not be paying attention and that the electorate would be strongly old and republican leaning.

That's still total Galaxy Brain sh!t. Republicans continue to fail to understand how social media works amongst other things.

I'm reminded of the Doomers who insisted that Trump's Postal Service sabotage would destroy Biden's chances because loads of Democrats would wait until the last days to mail in their ballots and no one would pay attention to the news about it and Democratic GOTV operations would completely ignore it because "voters are stupid." And then it got huge publicity and coverage and that didn't happen!

They thought cause given that they did succeed in passing such measure in FL , it would be successful in OH too .

https://twitter.com/astrohxncho/status/1689055847442522120?s=20

Then when things do still pass that the Republicans don’t want (like restoring felon voting rights) they still try and reverse it.

[Oryxslayer]

This was a really stupid ass idea. This sort of thing would always run behind an abortion ban, so what's the point? Did they seriously think they'd actually win over enough pro-choice voters to the Yes side?

No, they simply hoped (and this really was their "plan", I'm not making this up) that enough voters would not be paying attention and that the electorate would be strongly old and republican leaning.

That's still total Galaxy Brain sh!t. Republicans continue to fail to understand how social media works amongst other things.

I'm reminded of the Doomers who insisted that Trump's Postal Service sabotage would destroy Biden's chances because loads of Democrats would wait until the last days to mail in their ballots and no one would pay attention to the news about it and Democratic GOTV operations would completely ignore it because "voters are stupid." And then it got huge publicity and coverage and that didn't happen!

They thought cause given that they did succeed in passing such measure in FL , it would be successful in OH too .

https://twitter.com/astrohxncho/status/1689055847442522120?s=20

Note that it passed in Florida, in 2006 of all years, cause the initiative process in the years immediately preceding it was actually being abused with things people didn't think needed to be on the ballot. And since then it hasn't exactly stopped popular liberal initiatives from passing.

[wbrocks67]

Can't wait for yet another round of pundits saying that abortion has "faded" as an issue after the 50th example that it hasn't

[Dave Hedgehog]

Can't wait for yet another round of pundits saying that abortion has "faded" as an issue after the 50th example that it hasn't

It hasn't faded as an issue as the Republicans persist in devoting all their strengths to banning it, despite the numerous indications that the majority of voters even in red states don't agree with them on it.

[Skill and Chance]

This was a really stupid ass idea. This sort of thing would always run behind an abortion ban, so what's the point? Did they seriously think they'd actually win over enough pro-choice voters to the Yes side?

No, they simply hoped (and this really was their "plan", I'm not making this up) that enough voters would not be paying attention and that the electorate would be strongly old and republican leaning.

That's still total Galaxy Brain sh!t. Republicans continue to fail to understand how social media works amongst other things.

I'm reminded of the Doomers who insisted that Trump's Postal Service sabotage would destroy Biden's chances because loads of Democrats would wait until the last days to mail in their ballots and no one would pay attention to the news about it and Democratic GOTV operations would completely ignore it because "voters are stupid." And then it got huge publicity and coverage and that didn't happen!

They thought cause given that they did succeed in passing such measure in FL , it would be successful in OH too .

https://twitter.com/astrohxncho/status/1689055847442522120?s=20

Note that it passed in Florida, in 2006 of all years, cause the initiative process in the years immediately preceding it was actually being abused with things people didn't think needed to be on the ballot. And since then it hasn't exactly stopped popular liberal initiatives from passing.

Yes, this was from a different era so not really comparable.  Also the most aggressive initiatives were coming from the right back then IIRC and then there was just altogether crazy stuff like creating a constitutional obligation to build a monorail(!) between Orlando and Miami.

There are 2 states that have actually passed restrictions in recent years, but they were both on narrower terms than what Ohio R's proposed:

In 2022, AZ voters passed a 60% threshold that applies specifically to initiatives that would raise taxes.

In 2016, CO voters raised the threshold for passage of constitutional amendments from 50% to 55%.

[Gracile]

DailyKos made this map which shows the margin difference between the ballot issue results so far and the 2020 presidential results:

https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/1689327543285846022