European Elections 2009 (France)

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I just wanted to correct this affirmation, who takes no acount of the french political system.

Just remember how strong was the opposition in 2004 or 1999 and compare it to the outcomes of the next presidential elections.

If you consider this IFOP poll as a good sign for the opposition, it's a wonderful evidence of its total collapse.

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The only surprises are the good numbers of PG-PCF

I guess it's because they polled only likely voters. Communists have a very little electoral base now, but its turnout is always huge.

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It's quasi-impossible to measure abstention well (CSA sez 49%, OW says 51%), though as it stands right now, I'd say abstention will break 60%.

I think turnout will be quite higher than in 2004, because then, voters took out their dissatisfaction with the government two months before during the regional elections. Of course, there was no economic crisis too...

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A new Ifop poll (the one that already try to poll the 2012 presidential election...).

UMP 26,5% (+0,5%)
PS 22,5% (-0,5%)
MoDem 14% (-0,5%)
Greenies 7,5% (+0,5%)
FN 7,5% (+1,5%)
NPA 7% (-2%)
PCF-PG 5,5% (+1,5%)
Libertas 5% (=)
LO 2,5% (-0,5%)
DLR 1,5% (-0,5%)

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You really should keep cool about Sarkozy's supposed hidden conservative agenda. IMO Sarkozy is not at all a religious conservative. The first thing that comes to my mind is about gay marriage. Before the 2007 elections, the UMP asked Luc Ferry to provide a report on the implications gay marriage, and Ferry finally said that there is nothing serious against it.

Shortly afterwards it was reported that Sarkozy had meetings with Amélie Mauresmo, the lesbian tenniswoman, and in the same time some ministers (one of them was Borloo IIRC) moved in favor of gay marriage.

I think it was a serious attemp to move on this issue, but since Sarkozy is not a moron (well, strategically speaking at least...) he finally realised he would have angered millions of right-wing voters, even if this issue is not as important as it is in the US.

So no, he's not a religious conservative. He's just another politician who will do what he thinks is best in order to win an election. And as Hashemite's maps prove, it's hard to say that transforming the UMP in a religious party would be a smart move...

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Greens 15,5

wow, I was expecting the exact contrary at the beginning of the campaign, but it's a very nice move anyway!

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It's amusing to see the PS ahead only in the West constituency.

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I'm at the Modem office, and very happy to see all these frustrated faces :-)

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France is keeping its breath...

hum, just a (little) third of France...

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loooooooool @ PS and Modem !

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Any seats projection ?

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As for me, je suis preneur, Hash !

Send me the spreadsheet by PM.

Sent it via email. It's an Excel spreadsheet, btw.

I'm very interested too!